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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TEX
TEX

TEX

4-1

8
5
BAL

BAL

2-3

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
13,542 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BAL no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

+2.0+1.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL50.8%42.8%BAL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 8 · BAL 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0010213018
BAL0001200025

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 4, 26sim 97
    184
    11(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 97
    155
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    169
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    298
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 95
    133
    1(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    1811
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Tue, Mar 31·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1/VegasTEX -126

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 8–5.

TEX -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Corey Seager

Corey Seager

SS

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX4-1
8
5
BAL2-3
TEX4-1·BAL2-3
TEX

TEX

4-1

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
2-55121001
SPRINT28.278
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
2-55121001
SPRINT2872
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
2-44222111
SPRINT24.96
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-55110003
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-44000012
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-55010001
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
3-55133101
SPRINT26.838
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
1-33110010
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-44111101
SPRINT28.891
Team13-404081383311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. deGromJ. deGrom★SP
4.2633071
C. WinnC. WinnRP
1.1000110
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.0100010
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0000010
C. MartinC. MartinRP
1.0222010
Team9.09551111
BAL

BAL

2-3

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
4-55142001
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-55012001
SPRINT28.175
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
2-44121101
SPRINT25.29
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
0-33000010
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-44000001
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
0-33100002
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-44110000
SPRINT28.175
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
0-44000002
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-44110003
SPRINT28.175
Team9-36365951111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. EflinZ. Eflin★SP
3.2411271
G. WolframG. WolframRP
1.1322020
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.0211000
Y. HiraldoY. HiraldoRP
1.0233101
A. NunezA. NunezRP
2.0211021
Team9.013883113

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • J. deGrom
    79 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      43%·97.6 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      39%·92.0 mph·53% whiff
    • CH
      14%·90.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      3%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      1%·81.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Martin
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FC
      58%·92.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      21%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·94.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      5%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·85.6 mph·— whiff
  • J. Junis
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      33%·86.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      27%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·93.2 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      47%·88.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • C. Winn
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FS
      29%·86.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      29%·84.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      21%·89.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      14%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.4 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • Z. Eflin
    74 pitches·30% CSW
    • CH
      26%·87.9 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      22%·78.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      19%·92.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      15%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·78.9 mph·33% whiff
  • Y. Hiraldo
    24 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      46%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      29%·86.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      43%·94.8 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      39%·85.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      13%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·93.3 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Nunez
    21 pitches·43% CSW
    • ST
      48%·86.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      24%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·96.2 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Cano
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      33%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      11%·91.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

9

8

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

Mar 30TEXTEX5@BALBAL2
Mar 31TEXTEX8@BALBAL5today
Apr 1TEXTEX3@BALBAL8

Season series

TEX leads series 2-0

Mar 30TEXTEX5@BALBAL2
Mar 31TEXTEX8@BALBAL5today
Apr 1TEXTEX3@BALBAL8
Aug 8BALBAL@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 8BALBAL@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 9BALBAL@TEXTEXupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX-12656%
BALBAL+10449%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 28pp · Bottom 5th Inning

TEXTEX
C. Seager

C. Seager

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

J. deGrom

J. deGrom

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 6 H

BALBAL
P. Alonso

P. Alonso

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

Z. Eflin

Z. Eflin

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TEX beat BAL 8-5. Henderson's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BAL vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 5th Inning · 2-1
+18pp→ 78% WP

Langford · tripled to right, Nimmo scored.

BALBottom 5th Inning · 3-3
+28pp→ 54% WP

Henderson · doubled to center, Ward scored and Alexander scored.

TEXTop 7th Inning · 7-3
+25pp→ 94% WP

Jansen · homered to left center (409 feet), Seager scored and Burger scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0010213018
BAL0001200025

Period scoring

TEX won 3 · BAL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Duran 1

0
1

Inn 4

Alonso 1

2
2

Inn 5

Langford 1

Henderson 2

1
0

Inn 6

Nimmo 1

3
0

Inn 7

Jansen 3

0
0

Inn 8

1
2

Inn 9

Seager 1

Ward 2

TEX
BAL

Play-by-play · 584 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TEX 8·BAL 5

  2. B9

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 5

  3. B9

    Henderson grounded out to second.

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 5

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 5

  6. B9

    Chris Martin pitches to Gunnar Henderson

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 5

  7. B9

    ·

    TEX 8·BAL 5

  8. B9

    Ward doubled to center, Cowser scored and O'Neill scored.

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 5

    +1pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 5

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

  13. B9

    Cowser to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

  14. B9

    Cowser to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

  17. B9

    Chris Martin pitches to Taylor Ward

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 5

  18. B9

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

  19. B9

    Alexander struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

    −1pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

  24. B9

    Chris Martin pitches to Blaze Alexander

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

  25. B9

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

  26. B9

    Jackson lined out to right, O'Neill to third.

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

    −2pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

  28. B9

    Chris Martin pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

  29. B9

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

  30. B9

    Cowser singled to center, O'Neill to second.

    · ·

    TEX 8·BAL 3

    +2pp

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

8

Runs

5

13

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

26

TB

14

3

HR

1

3

BB

1

11

K

11

17

LOB

12

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 8.5·TEX -126/BAL +104

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

BAL vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.7± 1.9high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.2%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    49.9%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.5%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.8%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872