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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3ARI
ARI

ARI

11-8

8
5
BAL

BAL

9-9

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
17,028 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BAL no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

-1.0-2.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL60.3%52.3%BAL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 8 · BAL 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BAL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
ARI00210110038
BAL01102010005

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, Apr 15·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -143

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 8–5.

ARI +1.5 cashed (BAL lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Corbin Carroll

Corbin Carroll

RF

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Jeremiah Jackson

Jeremiah Jackson

2B

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
ARI11-8
8
5
BAL9-9
ARI11-8·BAL9-9
ARI

ARI

11-8

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-55110003
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
2-44220011
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-44110001
AA. Del Castillo★DH
1-55113100
SPRINT26.326
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
1-55110001
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
2-55120000
SPRINT26.941
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
2-55021001
SPRINT25.29
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
1-55111000
SPRINT27.867
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
1-44011001
Team12-42428126118
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★SP
5.0644431
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
2.0211040
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0000000
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
1.0000000
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
1.0000010
Team10.0855481
BAL

BAL

9-9

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-55000000
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-55110001
SPRINT28.175
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-33100021
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★RF
0-22000011
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
1-33110001
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
2-55123101
SPRINT26.530
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-44110000
SPRINT2872
S. HuffS. Huff★C
1-44011001
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-33010011
L. TaverasL. TaverasCF
1-22011000
SPRINT2993
C. CowserC. CowserCF
0-22000001
Team8-3838585148
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. BradishK. Bradish★SP
6.0742140
G. WolframG. WolframRP
0.2211000
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
0.1000010
A. NunezA. NunezRP
1.0000010
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0000020
T. WellsT. WellsRP
1.0332001
Team10.01285181

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • E. Rodriguez
    98 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      44%·92.2 mph·6% whiff
    • CH
      37%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·79.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Ginkel
    32 pitches·34% CSW
    • SL
      66%·84.5 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Thompson
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      83%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·78.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Morillo
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      80%·98.7 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      10%·92.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      10%·99.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      50%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·88.4 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • K. Bradish
    97 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      35%·87.5 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      28%·85.0 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      22%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·96.6 mph·22% whiff
  • T. Wells
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • SL
      36%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·87.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      14%·78.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    11 pitches·55% CSW
    • FF
      45%·99.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      27%·90.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Nunez
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • CH
      40%·86.1 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      40%·85.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      57%·95.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      43%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    3 pitches·100% CSW
    • FS
      33%·91.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      33%·93.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.8 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

8

8

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Apr 13ARIARI7@BALBAL9
Apr 14ARIARI4@BALBAL3
Apr 15ARIARI8@BALBAL5today

Season series

ARI wins series 2-1

Apr 13ARIARI7@BALBAL9
Apr 14ARIARI4@BALBAL3
Apr 15ARIARI8@BALBAL5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+11946%
BALBAL-14359%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 29pp · Bottom 5th Inning

ARIARI
C. Carroll

C. Carroll

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 2 R · 1.100 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

BALBAL
J. Jackson

J. Jackson

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

K. Bradish

K. Bradish

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ARI beat BAL 8-5. Jackson's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

BAL vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+21pp→ 50% WP

Carroll · scored on error and Perdomo scored on error, Del Castillo safe at first on fielding error by left fielder Wilson, Del Castillo safe at third on error.

BALBottom 5th Inning · 3-4
+29pp→ 73% WP

Jackson · homered to left center (387 feet), Wilson scored.

ARITop 10th Inning · 7-5
+25pp→ 79% WP

Del Castillo · homered to center (420 feet), Carroll scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
ARI00210110038
BAL01102010005

Period scoring

ARI won 4 · BAL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Huff 1

2
1

Inn 3

Carroll 2

Jackson 1

1
0

Inn 4

Barrosa 1

0
2

Inn 5

Jackson 2

1
0

Inn 6

Thomas 1

1
1

Inn 7

Castillo 1

Taveras 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

3
0

Inn 10

Castillo 2

ARI
BAL

Play-by-play · 614 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  2. B10

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  3. B10

    Jackson popped out to second.

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

    −1pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  5. B10

    Juan Morillo pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  6. B10

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  7. B10

    Cowser struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

    −4pp

  8. B10

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  9. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  10. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  11. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  12. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  13. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  14. B10

    Juan Morillo pitches to Colton Cowser

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  15. B10

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  16. B10

    Taveras grounded out to shortstop, Alonso to third.

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

    −4pp

  17. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  18. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  19. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  20. B10

    Juan Morillo pitches to Leody Taveras

    ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  21. B10

    Morillo relieved Thompson

    ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  22. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  23. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  24. T10

    ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  25. T10

    Thomas grounded into fielder's choice to second, Arenado out at second.

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  26. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  27. T10

    Tyler Wells pitches to Alek Thomas

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  28. T10

    ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

  29. T10

    Arenado singled to center, Vargas scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

    −11pp

  30. T10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 8·BAL 5

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

8

Runs

5

12

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

20

TB

13

1

HR

1

1

BB

4

8

K

8

14

LOB

15

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 9·ARI +119/BAL -143

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

BAL vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    51.3%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.4%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.1%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 13, 26sim 97
    297
    1(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 96
    1811
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 96
    23
    1(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 96
    138
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 95
    155
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 95
    210
    6(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175