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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7ATH
HOU

HOU

5-3

4
11
ATH

ATH

2-5

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
12,410 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

ATH no-vig %

50.0%

open 50.0%

+2.0+1.0ATH SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL54.0%46.0%ATH NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

HOU 4 · ATH 11 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0010001024
ATH0136100011

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Apr 3·Final/SeriesATH wins series 2-1/VegasATH -110

Recap · MLB

Athletics held off Houston Astros, 11–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATH +1.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Nick Allen

Nick Allen

SS

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Max Muncy

Max Muncy

3B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU5-3
4
11
ATH2-5
HOU5-3·ATH2-5
HOU

HOU

5-3

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-44010011
SPRINT28.483
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
0-11001000
SPRINT24.64
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-11000011
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
0-22000001
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-22000000
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-44110002
SPRINT29.395
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
0-22001011
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
2-33121011
SPRINT25.513
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
0-33001010
C. VazquezC. VazquezC
0-33000000
S. WhitcombS. Whitcomb3B
0-22000002
J. LoperfidoJ. LoperfidoLF
0-22000001
N. AllenN. AllenSS
2-22220000
SPRINT2744
Team6-31314640510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. JavierC. Javier★SP
3.2666520
R. MunozR. MunozRP
1.1455222
R. WeissR. WeissRP
3.0300020
Team8.0131111762
ATH

ATH

2-5

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
0-44000012
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
0-33100021
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
2-44222010
SPRINT26.735
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-33200020
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
2-44121000
SPRINT27.148
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
3-55234101
SPRINT26.530
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
3-44233100
SPRINT27.969
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-44010000
D. ClarkeD. Clarke★CF
1-33111012
SPRINT28.586
D. HernaizD. HernaizSS
1-11010000
Team13-3535111311276
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SpringsJ. Springs★SP
6.0211170
M. KellyM. KellyRP
1.0111320
J.T. GinnJ.T. GinnSP
2.0322110
Team9.06445100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

ATH

  • M. Kelly
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • ST
      71%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·94.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

13

4

Runs

11

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATH wins series 2-1

Apr 4HOUHOU4@ATHATH11today
Apr 4HOUHOU11@ATHATH0
Apr 5HOUHOU10@ATHATH12

Season series

ATH leads series 1-0

Apr 4HOUHOU4@ATHATH11today
Apr 4HOUHOU11@ATHATH0
Apr 5HOUHOU10@ATHATH12
Jun 6ATHATH@HOUHOUupcoming
Jun 6ATHATH@HOUHOUupcoming
Jun 7ATHATH@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 22ATHATH@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 22ATHATH@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 23ATHATH@HOUHOUupcoming
Sep 25HOUHOU@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 26HOUHOU@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 27HOUHOU@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 27HOUHOU@ATHATHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU-11052%
ATHATH-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

HOUHOU
N. Allen

N. Allen

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Javier

C. Javier

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 2 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 5 BB

ATHATH
M. Muncy

M. Muncy

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

J. Springs

J. Springs

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATH beat HOU 11-4. Muncy's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

ATH vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 63% WP

Clarke · singled to left, Muncy scored, McNeil to second.

HOUTop 3rd Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 51% WP

Peña doubled to left, Diaz to third.

ATHBottom 3rd Inning · 1-4
+19pp→ 82% WP

Muncy · doubled to center, Butler scored and Rooker scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0010001024
ATH01361000—11

Period scoring

HOU won 1 · ATH won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Clarke 1

1
3

Inn 3

Alvarez 1

Muncy 2

0
6

Inn 4

Butler 3

0
1

Inn 5

Soderstrom 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Matthews 1

0
0

Inn 8

2

Inn 9

Meyers 1

HOU
ATH

Play-by-play · 615 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  2. T9

    Vázquez flied out to left.

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  8. T9

    J.T. Ginn pitches to Christian Vazquez

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  9. T9

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  10. T9

    Peña walked.

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  15. T9

    J.T. Ginn pitches to Jeremy Pena

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  16. T9

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  17. T9

    Matthews flied out to left.

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  21. T9

    J.T. Ginn pitches to Brice Matthews

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  22. T9

    ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  23. T9

    Diaz doubled to right, Smith scored.

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  25. T9

    J.T. Ginn pitches to Yainer Diaz

    · ·

    HOU 4·ATH 11

  26. T9

    · ·

    HOU 3·ATH 11

  27. T9

    Meyers hit sacrifice fly to center, Allen scored.

    · ·

    HOU 3·ATH 11

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 3·ATH 11

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 2·ATH 11

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 2·ATH 11

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

4

Runs

11

6

Hits

13

0

Errors

0

8

TB

21

0

HR

2

5

BB

7

10

K

6

10

LOB

14

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 9.5·HOU -110/ATH -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

ATH vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.4%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    49.4%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.9%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.2%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 31, 26sim 97
    138
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    29
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 95
    66
    29(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 13, 26sim 95
    297
    1(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 94
    155
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 94
    133
    1(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs