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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3ARI
DET

DET

2-2

6
9
ARI

ARI

1-3

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
48,350 attended

Line movement

13 snapshots

ARI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ARI no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

-1.0-2.0ARI SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL57.2%49.2%ARI NO-VIG %MODEL 49.4%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

DET 6 · ARI 9 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0000006006
ARI230030109

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 11, 26sim 96
    1111
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 95
    23
    1(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 95
    65
    29(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    184
    11(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 94
    2313
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 13, 26sim 94
    297
    1(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Mon, Mar 30·Final/SeriesARI wins series 3-0/VegasARI -126

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off Detroit Tigers, 9–6.

ARI -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 6.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Dillon Dingler

Dillon Dingler

C

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Corbin Carroll

Corbin Carroll

RF

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET2-2
6
9
ARI1-3
DET2-2·ARI1-3
DET

DET

2-2

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-55010004
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-44110011
SPRINT25.18
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
2-55122002
SPRINT28.381
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-55121001
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-55011002
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
0-22100020
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-33111012
SPRINT27.765
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
1-44010000
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-44111002
SPRINT27.251
Team10-373761060414
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. VerlanderJ. Verlander★SP
3.2655211
E. De JesusE. De JesusRP
1.0333210
B. HurterB. HurterRP
2.0211001
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
0.1000000
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.0000210
Team8.01199632
ARI

ARI

1-3

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-44111010
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
2-44224111
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-44000010
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
2-44121010
SPRINT26.428
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-55110000
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
1-55111002
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
0-33000010
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
2-44221100
SPRINT26.941
J. LawlarJ. Lawlar★LF
2-33121010
Team11-36369119263
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. SorokaM. Soroka★SP
5.04001100
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
1.0000010
J. RossJ. RossRP
0.2566110
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
0.1000000
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0000010
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
1.0000010
Team9.010664140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

ARI

  • P. Sewald
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      54%·82.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      46%·90.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

11

6

Runs

9

2

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 3-0

Mar 31DETDET6@ARIARI9today
Apr 1DETDET5@ARIARI7
Apr 1DETDET0@ARIARI1

Season series

ARI leads series 1-0

Mar 31DETDET6@ARIARI9today
Apr 1DETDET5@ARIARI7
Apr 1DETDET0@ARIARI1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ARI -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET+10449%
ARIARI-12656%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

DETDET
D. Dingler

D. Dingler

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

J. Verlander

J. Verlander

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 1 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

ARIARI
C. Carroll

C. Carroll

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

M. Soroka

M. Soroka

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

5.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ARI beat DET 9-6.

Win probability

ARI vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARIBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 78% WP

Carroll · tripled to right, Marte scored.

ARIBottom 2nd Inning · 0-5
+14pp→ 93% WP

Carroll · homered to right center (403 feet), Vargas and Lawlar scored.

ARIBottom 7th Inning · 6-8
+9pp→ 89% WP

Thomas · grounded out to shortstop.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0000006006
ARI23003010—9

Period scoring

DET won 1 · ARI won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Carroll 1

0
3

Inn 2

Carroll 3

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
3

Inn 5

Thomas 1

0
0

Inn 6

6
1

Inn 7

Keith 2

Vargas 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

DET
ARI

Play-by-play · 644 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  2. T9

    Torkelson struck out swinging.

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  6. T9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  7. T9

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  8. T9

    Greene flied out to center.

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

    +1pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  15. T9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Riley Greene

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  16. T9

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  17. T9

    Keith flied out to left.

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

    +2pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  21. T9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Colt Keith

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  22. T9

    Sewald relieved Clarke

    ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    DET 6·ARI 9

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    DET 6·ARI 9

  25. B8

    · ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  26. B8

    Thomas struck out swinging.

    · ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

    −0.6pp

  27. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

  30. B8

    Tyler Holton pitches to Alek Thomas

    · ·

    DET 6·ARI 9

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

6

Runs

9

10

Hits

11

2

Errors

0

15

TB

21

0

HR

2

4

BB

6

14

K

3

14

LOB

23

Betting line

ARI -1.5·O/U 9·DET +104/ARI -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

ARI vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    4.5± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    51.5%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.0%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.5%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Parker MeadowsDET · CF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278