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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2BAL
ARI

ARI

9-8

7
9
BAL

BAL

9-7

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
10,289 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BAL no-vig %

54.2%

open 54.2%

-1.0-2.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL58.2%50.2%BAL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

ARI 7 · BAL 9 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI1012030007
BAL001005219

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Mon, Apr 13·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -131

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 9–7.

BAL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado

3B

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

5

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Jeremiah Jackson

Jeremiah Jackson

2B

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

5

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI9-8
7
9
BAL9-7
ARI9-8·BAL9-7
ARI

ARI

9-8

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
2-55222201
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-44010002
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-33000010
AA. Del Castillo★DH
1-44110001
SPRINT26.326
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
0-44100001
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
2-44120000
SPRINT26.941
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
2-44225201
SPRINT25.29
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-44000003
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
2-44020002
SPRINT28.688
Team10-363671074111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. NelsonR. Nelson★SP
5.1321270
T. RashiT. RashiRP
0.2344111
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
0.2122101
A. HoffmannA. HoffmannRP
1.1111011
Team8.0898493
BAL

BAL

9-7

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-55011001
SPRINT28.175
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-44100003
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
2-33222110
SPRINT25.29
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-44000001
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
1-44110000
SPRINT29.194
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
1-33111011
SPRINT2993
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-33100011
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
3-44235200
SPRINT26.530
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-22100012
Team8-3232989349
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. KremerD. Kremer★SP
5.0642093
A. SuarezA. SuarezRP
2.0433101
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0000000
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0000020
Team9.010751114

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • R. Nelson
    92 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      63%·96.0 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.6 mph·36% whiff
    • CU
      10%·79.7 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Loaisiga
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • CH
      32%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      26%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·96.9 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rashi
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • CU
      33%·76.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      27%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      20%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·84.7 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Hoffmann
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      43%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·88.2 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • D. Kremer
    80 pitches·30% CSW
    • FS
      36%·82.5 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·77.6 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      10%·86.7 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.5 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Suarez
    40 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·84.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      13%·77.6 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      13%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      67%·98.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      8%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      45%·87.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·84.9 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      9%·85.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

8

7

Runs

9

1

Errors

1

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Apr 13ARIARI7@BALBAL9today
Apr 14ARIARI4@BALBAL3
Apr 15ARIARI8@BALBAL5

Season series

BAL leads series 1-0

Apr 13ARIARI7@BALBAL9today
Apr 14ARIARI4@BALBAL3
Apr 15ARIARI8@BALBAL5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+10948%
BALBAL-13157%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 31pp · Bottom 7th Inning

ARIARI
N. Arenado

N. Arenado

3B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

R. Nelson

R. Nelson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

BALBAL
J. Jackson

J. Jackson

2B

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

D. Kremer

D. Kremer

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 6 H

How it ended

BAL beat ARI 9-7. Alonso's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Win probability

BAL vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 4th Inning · 4-1
+20pp→ 78% WP

Arenado · homered to left (397 feet), Fernandez scored.

BALBottom 6th Inning · 7-6
+27pp→ 39% WP

Jackson · homered to left (406 feet), Beavers scored, Taveras scored and Cowser scored.

BALBottom 7th Inning · 7-8
+31pp→ 82% WP

Alonso · homered to left center (399 feet), Ward scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI1012030007
BAL00100521—9

Period scoring

ARI won 2 · BAL won 3

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
1

Inn 3

Marte 1

Henderson 1

2
0

Inn 4

Arenado 2

0
0

Inn 5

3
5

Inn 6

Arenado 3

Jackson 4

0
2

Inn 7

Alonso 2

0
1

Inn 8

Jackson 1

0

Inn 9

ARI
BAL

Play-by-play · 549 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  2. T9

    Marte grounded out to third.

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  5. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Ketel Marte

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  6. T9

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  7. T9

    Barrosa struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

    +2pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  15. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Jorge Barrosa

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  16. T9

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  17. T9

    Thomas struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

    +3pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  21. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Alek Thomas

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  22. T9

    Helsley relieved Garcia

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  25. B8

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  26. B8

    Ward grounded out to third.

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  27. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

  30. B8

    Andrew Hoffmann pitches to Taylor Ward

    ·

    ARI 7·BAL 9

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

7

Runs

9

10

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

24

TB

20

4

HR

3

1

BB

4

11

K

9

10

LOB

9

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 9·ARI +109/BAL -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

BAL vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    51.3%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.0%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.1%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 15, 26sim 97
    298
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 96
    1111
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 95
    1517
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    184
    11(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    66
    29(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 94
    1811
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175