• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+3TEX
TEX

TEX

3-1

5
2
BAL

BAL

2-2

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
11,209 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BAL no-vig %

54.2%

open 54.2%

-1.0-2.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL58.2%50.2%BAL NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 5 · BAL 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BAL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX1300000015
BAL1000100002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Mon, Mar 30·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -131

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 5–2.

TEX +1.5 cashed (BAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo

RF

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Gunnar Henderson

Gunnar Henderson

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX3-1
5
2
BAL2-2
TEX3-1·BAL2-2
TEX

TEX

3-1

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
3-55231001
SPRINT28.278
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
1-55010001
SPRINT2872
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-33000020
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
2-44122000
SPRINT2744
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-22001001
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-33011021
SPRINT27.354
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
0-55000002
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
2-55120002
SPRINT28.175
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
0-33100012
A. McCutchenA. McCutchenDH
1-22010001
Team10-373751050511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LeiterJ. Leiter★SP
6.0522181
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.0000000
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
1.0200010
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
1.0000020
Team9.07221111
BAL

BAL

2-2

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
2-44122101
SPRINT28.175
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT25.29
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
1-44010001
SPRINT26.632
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
0-44000001
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-33000001
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-44000002
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-22110010
SPRINT28.175
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-33010001
J. JacksonJ. Jackson2B
0-11000001
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle1B
0-11000001
Team7-34342721111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BassittC. Bassitt★SP
4.1644430
D. EnnsD. EnnsRP
1.2100140
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
2.0000030
T. WellsT. WellsRP
1.0311010
Team9.010555110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • J. Leiter
    92 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      29%·90.8 mph·44% whiff
    • SL
      24%·86.6 mph·64% whiff
    • FF
      17%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·82.1 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      10%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·93.7 mph·60% whiff
  • J. Beeks
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      38%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      31%·86.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      31%·81.8 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Alexander
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • CH
      50%·84.4 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      30%·88.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      20%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Junis
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • CH
      38%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·82.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      25%·90.8 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • C. Bassitt
    100 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      44%·92.0 mph·6% whiff
    • CU
      25%·70.9 mph·39% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.5 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      7%·84.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      7%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·72.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Enns
    34 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      35%·83.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      35%·93.8 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      18%·80.3 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      12%·77.0 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Wells
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      35%·86.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      31%·87.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      19%·89.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      15%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      33%·95.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      29%·87.0 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      24%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

7

5

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

Mar 30TEXTEX5@BALBAL2today
Mar 31TEXTEX8@BALBAL5
Apr 1TEXTEX3@BALBAL8

Season series

TEX leads series 1-0

Mar 30TEXTEX5@BALBAL2today
Mar 31TEXTEX8@BALBAL5
Apr 1TEXTEX3@BALBAL8
Aug 8BALBAL@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 8BALBAL@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 9BALBAL@TEXTEXupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX+10948%
BALBAL-13157%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 5th Inning

TEXTEX
B. Nimmo

B. Nimmo

RF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 2 R · 1.200 OPS

J. Leiter

J. Leiter

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

BALBAL
G. Henderson

G. Henderson

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

C. Bassitt

C. Bassitt

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

How it ended

TEX beat BAL 5-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BAL vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 60% WP

Henderson · homered to center (410 feet).

BALBottom 5th Inning · 4-2
+11pp→ 31% WP

Henderson · singled to right, Cowser scored, Alexander to third.

TEXBottom 8th Inning · 4-2
+11pp→ 85% WP

Rutschman · lined out to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX1300000015
BAL1000100002

Period scoring

TEX won 2 · BAL won 1

1
1

Inn 1

Burger 1

Henderson 1

3
0

Inn 2

Nimmo 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Henderson 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Smith 1

TEX
BAL

Play-by-play · 589 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  2. B9

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  3. B9

    Mountcastle struck out swinging.

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  8. B9

    Tyler Alexander pitches to Ryan Mountcastle

    · ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  9. B9

    Mountcastle hit for Cowser

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  10. B9

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  11. B9

    Mayo flied out to center.

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

    −1pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  13. B9

    Tyler Alexander pitches to Coby Mayo

    · ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  14. B9

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  15. B9

    Jackson struck out swinging.

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

    −2pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  21. B9

    Tyler Alexander pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    · ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  22. B9

    Alexander relieved Beeks

    · ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  23. B9

    Jackson hit for Beavers

    ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  26. T9

    · ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  27. T9

    Carter flied out to center.

    · ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

    +0.5pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 5·BAL 2

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

5

Runs

2

10

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

12

TB

11

0

HR

1

5

BB

1

11

K

11

27

LOB

11

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 9·TEX +109/BAL -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BAL vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.1%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    51.2%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.8%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.0%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 27, 26sim 97
    70
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 96
    294
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    251
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 95
    234
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    1811
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 95
    176
    30(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs