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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6PIT
SD

SD

5-6

1
7
PIT

PIT

7-4

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
9,061 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 6.0

open O/U 6.0

PIT no-vig %

58.0%

open 58.0%

-1.0-2.0PIT SPREADO/U 6.5O/U 5.5TOTAL62.0%54.0%PIT NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

SD 1 · PIT 7 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0000001001
PIT000020057

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 20, 26sim 98
    176
    30(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 98
    52
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 97
    176
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 97
    51
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 97
    171
    28(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 96
    27
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+128

Close price

+128

Open no-vig

42.0%

Close no-vig

42.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Tue, Apr 7·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1/VegasPIT -154

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off San Diego Padres, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 6.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Xander Bogaerts

Xander Bogaerts

SS

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Jake Mangum

Jake Mangum

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD5-6
1
7
PIT7-4
SD5-6·PIT7-4
SD

SD

5-6

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-44000001
SPRINT2872
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT28.483
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-44000001
SPRINT28.688
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-33000012
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-44111101
SPRINT27.148
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-33000000
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-22010000
SPRINT26.530
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-33000001
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-22000011
Team3-2929131129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. PivettaN. Pivetta★SP
5.0422180
B. RodriguezB. RodriguezRP
1.0200000
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
1.0100110
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
0.1554010
R. MarinaccioR. MarinaccioRP
0.2000000
Team8.012762100
PIT

PIT

7-4

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-55012002
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-44000003
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-44110002
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
2-33120010
SPRINT26.735
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
1-44110001
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44112001
SPRINT28.586
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-22110011
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
2-44122000
SPRINT29.899
H. DavisH. Davis★C
2-44020000
J. MangumJ. MangumLF
1-11111000
SPRINT2993
Team12-353571270210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. SkenesP. Skenes★SP
6.1211261
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
0.2100000
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0000010
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
1.0000020
Team9.0311291

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • N. Pivetta
    86 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      49%·93.7 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      23%·79.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      14%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·81.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      3%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      2%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Rodriguez
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      39%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      35%·88.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      17%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Morejon
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      65%·99.1 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      15%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Peralta
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      46%·88.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      46%·94.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      8%·90.0 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Marinaccio
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      50%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·93.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      17%·84.2 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • P. Skenes
    87 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      40%·96.7 mph·26% whiff
    • SI
      26%·96.4 mph·10% whiff
    • ST
      20%·83.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      3%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    12 pitches·58% CSW
    • SI
      58%·96.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      25%·83.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.8 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Soto
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • ST
      50%·80.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      30%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      10%·82.3 mph·— whiff
  • I. Mattson
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      78%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·81.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      11%·81.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

12

1

Runs

7

2

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Apr 6SDSD5@PITPIT0
Apr 7SDSD1@PITPIT7today
Apr 8SDSD8@PITPIT2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 6SDSD5@PITPIT0
Apr 7SDSD1@PITPIT7today
Apr 8SDSD8@PITPIT2
Aug 25PITPIT@SDSDupcoming
Aug 26PITPIT@SDSDupcoming
Aug 26PITPIT@SDSDupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

6.0

Defensive · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SDSD+12844%
PITPIT-15461%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 25pp · Bottom 5th Inning

SDSD
X. Bogaerts

X. Bogaerts

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

N. Pivetta

N. Pivetta

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

PITPIT
J. Mangum

J. Mangum

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

P. Skenes

P. Skenes

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PIT beat SD 7-1. Cruz's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 5th Inning · 0-2
+25pp→ 83% WP

Cruz · doubled to left, Griffin and Horwitz scored, Cruz safe at third on fielding error by catcher Fermin.

PITBottom 6th Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 84% WP

Reynolds · grounded out to pitcher.

SDTop 7th Inning · 1-2
+11pp→ 25% WP

Bogaerts · homered to left (383 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0000001001
PIT00002005—7

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

1

Runs

7

3

Hits

12

2

Errors

0

6

TB

14

1

HR

0

2

BB

2

9

K

10

8

LOB

13

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 6·SD +128/PIT -154

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

PIT vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

SD won 1 · PIT won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Cruz 2

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Bogaerts 1

0
5

Inn 8

Gonzales 2

0

Inn 9

SD
PIT

Play-by-play · 519 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  2. T9

    Bogaerts grounded out to second.

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  8. T9

    Yohan Ramirez pitches to Xander Bogaerts

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  9. T9

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  10. T9

    Machado struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  15. T9

    Yohan Ramirez pitches to Manny Machado

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  16. T9

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  17. T9

    Merrill struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  21. T9

    Yohan Ramirez pitches to Jackson Merrill

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  22. T9

    Ramírez relieved Soto

    ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  23. T9

    Mangum in left field.

    SD 1·PIT 7

  24. T9

    O'Hearn at first base.

    SD 1·PIT 7

  25. T9

    Reynolds in right field.

    SD 1·PIT 7

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SD 1·PIT 7

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SD 1·PIT 7

  28. B8

    · ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  29. B8

    Cruz flied out to right.

    · ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 1·PIT 7

Player projections

PIT vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low

Hits

  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    1.8± 3.1high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high
  • Marcell OzunaPIT
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    50.8%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.7%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.4%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483