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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6ATL
KC

KC

0-1

0
6
ATL

ATL

1-0

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
39,697 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

ATL no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

-1.0-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL60.3%52.3%ATL NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 29, 4 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

KC 0 · ATL 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0000000000
ATL101200206

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 30, 26sim 97
    135
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 97
    255
    23(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 96
    294
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 96
    301
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 95
    72
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 95
    172
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Fri, Mar 27·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -143

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Kansas City Royals, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Bobby Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr.

SS

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Austin Riley

Austin Riley

3B

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC0-1
0
6
ATL1-0
KC0-1·ATL1-0
KC

KC

0-1

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-33010011
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-44020001
SPRINT30.399+
L. ThomasL. Thomas★CF
1-33010012
SPRINT28.688
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-44010000
SPRINT241
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-33000000
SPRINT25.411
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
0-33000001
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
0-33000011
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-33000000
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-33000001
J. CaglianoneJ. CaglianoneRF
0-11000001
Team5-3030050038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. RagansC. Ragans★SP
4.0644453
B. FalterB. FalterRP
3.0522040
A. LangeA. LangeRP
1.0000010
Team8.011664103
ATL

ATL

1-0

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-55000003
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-44111110
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
2-44121100
SPRINT27.354
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
2-44120002
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
3-33130010
SPRINT27.765
E. WhiteE. White★CF
1-44010002
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-44012002
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
0-22100020
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-44112101
SPRINT27.148
Team11-343461163410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SaleC. Sale★SP
6.0300360
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0000000
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0200010
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0000010
Team9.0500380

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • C. Ragans
    90 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.5 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      23%·85.1 mph·36% whiff
    • CH
      14%·83.7 mph·38% whiff
    • KC
      9%·78.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      2%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • UN
      1%·60.5 mph·— whiff
  • B. Falter
    48 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      54%·93.5 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      25%·85.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      21%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Lange
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      27%·89.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·94.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      9%·95.6 mph·— whiff

ATL

  • C. Sale
    88 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      49%·95.9 mph·23% whiff
    • SL
      39%·79.1 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      2%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Suarez
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      65%·98.4 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      18%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • SL
      69%·86.7 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      15%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lee
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      56%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·82.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      11%·83.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

11

0

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Mar 27KCKC0@ATLATL6today
Mar 28KCKC2@ATLATL6
Mar 29KCKC4@ATLATL1

Season series

ATL leads series 1-0

Mar 27KCKC0@ATLATL6today
Mar 28KCKC2@ATLATL6
Mar 29KCKC4@ATLATL1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

KCKC+11946%
ATLATL-14359%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

KCKC
B. Witt Jr.

B. Witt Jr.

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Ragans

C. Ragans

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

ATLATL
A. Riley

A. Riley

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Sale

C. Sale

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATL beat KC 6-0.

Win probability

ATL vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 69% WP

Albies · homered to left (367 feet).

ATLBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 71% WP

Dub · ón struck out swinging.

ATLBottom 4th Inning · 0-4
+10pp→ 93% WP

Harris II · homered to right (372 feet), Heim scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0000000000
ATL10120020—6

Period scoring

KC won 0 · ATL won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Albies 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Baldwin 1

0
2

Inn 4

II 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

Dub 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

KC
ATL

Play-by-play · 533 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  2. T9

    India popped out to first.

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  6. T9

    Tyler Kinley pitches to Jonathan India

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  7. T9

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  8. T9

    Caglianone struck out looking.

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  15. T9

    Tyler Kinley pitches to Jac Caglianone

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  16. T9

    Caglianone hit for Marte

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  17. T9

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  18. T9

    Pasquantino grounded out to second.

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  23. T9

    Tyler Kinley pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  24. T9

    Kinley relieved R. Suarez

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    KC 0·ATL 6

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    KC 0·ATL 6

  27. B8

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  28. B8

    Baldwin grounded out to first.

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 0·ATL 6

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

0

Runs

6

5

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

5

TB

22

0

HR

3

3

BB

4

8

K

10

14

LOB

13

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 7.5·KC +119/ATL -143

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Lane ThomasKC · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

ATL vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.6± 3.2high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Dominic SmithATL
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    52.1%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.5%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.1%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.