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TOP 5TH+1PIT

PIT

20-17

ARI

17-18

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

55.0%

PIT wins · current

Pre-game: 52.2% ARI

PIT 3 · 2 ARI

PIT +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsARI leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipPITTop 5th Inning · 3-2
+14pp→ 63% WP
Horwitz · singled to right, Reynolds scored, O'Hearn to second.
SwingARIBottom 3rd Inning · 1-2
+12pp→ 63% WP
Carroll · homered to right center (406 feet).
SwingPITTop 3rd Inning · 1-1
+8pp→ 47% WP
Cook · flied out to center.
Lead flipARIBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+9pp→ 52% WP
Del Castillo · singled to right, Perdomo scored.
Lead flipPITTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 59% WP
Lowe · homered to right (436 feet).

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.30

M. Keller

3-1 · 2.85 ERA

Z. Gallen

1-2 · 4.45 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

ARI no-vig %

48.9%

open 48.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.7%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
52.2%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.3%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.6%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

15.5%

-36.7ppvs pre-game · PIT favored

Leverage

medium

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

ARI vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts

Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.7low
Michael SorokaARI
6.0± 4.2low
Paul SkenesPIT
5.8± 3.1low

Hits

Ildemaro VargasARI
1.5± 1.3high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 1.2high
Konnor GriffinPIT
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Ildemaro VargasARI
2.3± 2.7high
Brandon LowePIT
2.0± 2.1high
Konnor GriffinPIT
1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.8± 1.2high
Adrian Del CastilloARI
0.7± 0.8high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
5.3± 3.4low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.3± 3.8low
Brandon PfaadtARI
2.7± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

PIT

Pirates

20-17

vs52.2%ARI

ARI★

Diamondbacks

17-18

PIT 47.8%win prob52.2% ARI

ARI 1495 · PIT 1503Box score→

MLBThu, May 7Top 5thSeriestied 1-1VegasARI -117

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

PIT · ARI

PIT

20-17

	Batting												Analytics
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
O. Cruz★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	9	.247	.307	.467	0.000
B. Lowe★2B	2-3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	9	.262	.366	.574	2.333
B. Reynolds★LF	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	13	.256	.401	.414	0.333
R. O'Hearn★RF	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	1	12	.295	.380	.450	0.667
S. Horwitz★1B	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	1	0	11	.248	.366	.386	1.167
K. Griffin★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	9	.261	.325	.396	0.000
J. Triolo★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	.207	.281	.276	0.000
B. Cook★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	.267	.267	.267	0.000
J. Bart★C	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	7	.208	.250	.292	1.000
Team	5-20	20	3	5	3	1	2	5	82				—

	Batting
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
M. Keller★SP	4.0	3	2	2	2	3	1	61-33	3.00	61
Team	4.0	3	2	2	2	3	1	61-33		61

ARI

17-18

	Batting												Analytics
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
G. Perdomo★SS	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	11	.236	.353	.391	0.500
K. Marte★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	8	.212	.265	.358	0.000
C. Carroll★RF	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	8	.261	.357	.513	2.500
A. Del Castillo★C	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	6	.222	.250	.389	1.000
I. Vargas★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	.357	.379	.616	0.000
J. Fernandez★1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	10	.298	.340	.426	0.500
J. Barrosa★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	.197	.250	.394	0.000
J. McCann★C	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	.196	.212	.255	2.000
A. Thomas★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.183	.224	.344	0.000
Team	3-14	14	2	3	2	1	2	3	61				—

	Batting
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
Z. Gallen★SP	4.2	5	3	3	2	5	1	82-51	4.62	82
Team	4.2	5	3	3	2	5	1	82-51		82

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

Series tied 1-1

May 6

PIT0@

ARI9

May 7

PIT1@

ARI0

May 7

PIT@

ARItoday

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 6

PIT0@

ARI9

May 7

PIT1@

ARI0

May 7

PIT@

ARItoday

Jul 27

ARI@

PITupcoming

Jul 28

ARI@

PITupcoming

Jul 29

ARI@

PITupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

1.5pt· 6.2h

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

0.5pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

PIT-10351%

ARI-11754%

3· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

+0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

PITSP

M. Keller

#23 · 3-1

ERA

2.85

—

Last 3 starts

5/1vs

CIN7.0 IP · 1 ER · 6 KW(3-1)

4/25@

MIL5.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 K-

4/19vs

TB7.0 IP · 2 ER · 5 KW(2-1)

ARISP

Z. Gallen

#23 · 1-2

ERA

4.45

—

Last 3 starts

5/1@

CHC3.2 IP · 6 ER · 3 KL(1-2)

4/25vs

SD3.0 IP · 0 ER · 3 K-

4/19vs

TOR5.2 IP · 2 ER · 3 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

PIT4L · 4R · 1S

1
O. Cruz
DH · #15
L
2
B. Lowe
2B · #5
L
3
B. Reynolds
LF · #10
B
4
R. O'Hearn
RF · #29
L
5
S. Horwitz
1B · #2
L
6
K. Griffin
SS · #6
R
7
J. Triolo
3B · #19
R
8
B. Cook
CF · #25
R
9
J. Bart
C · #14
R

ARI3L · 2R · 4S

1
G. Perdomo
SS · #2
B
2
K. Marte
2B · #4
B
3
C. Carroll
RF · #7
L
4
A. Del Castillo
DH · #25
L
5
I. Vargas
1B · #6
B
6
J. Fernandez
3B · #11
R
7
J. Barrosa
LF · #1
B
8
J. McCann
C · #8
R
9
A. Thomas
CF · #5
L

Live · top performers so far

Top 5th

Game flowPIT ↔ ARI

Recent swing: 14pp · Top 5th Inning

Just happened

Zac Gallen · pitches to Konnor Griffin

PIT

B. Lowe

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

M. Keller

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 4 ER

ARI

C. Carroll

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

Z. Gallen

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 8 K · 5 ER

How it's going

PIT lead ARI 3-2 (Top 5th).

Win probability

ARI vs PIT

Score progression

0 lead changes

PIT3

ARI2

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PITTop 1st Inning · 1-0

+10pp→ 59% WP

Lowe · homered to right (436 feet).

ARIBottom 3rd Inning · 1-2

+12pp→ 63% WP

Carroll · homered to right center (406 feet).

PITTop 5th Inning · 3-2

+14pp→ 63% WP

Horwitz · singled to right, Reynolds scored, O'Hearn to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	R
PIT	1	0	0	0	2	3
ARI	1	0	1	0	—	2

Period scoring

PIT won 0 · ARI won 1

Inn 1

Lowe 1

Castillo 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Carroll 1

Inn 4

Inn 5

O'Hearn 1

PIT

ARI

Game flow · key plays

T5
Horwitz singled to right, Reynolds scored, O'Hearn to second.
PIT 3·ARI 2
−14pp
T5
O'Hearn singled to right, Lowe scored, Reynolds to third.
PIT 2·ARI 2
−13pp
B3
Carroll homered to right center (406 feet).
PIT 1·ARI 2
+12pp
T3
Cook flied out to center.
PIT 1·ARI 1
−8pp
B1
Del Castillo singled to right, Perdomo scored.
PIT 1·ARI 1
+9pp
T1
Lowe homered to right (436 feet).
PIT 1·ARI 0
−10pp

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

Hits

Errors

Runs

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 8.5·PIT -103/ARI -117

DraftKings · via ESPN