Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at ARI?

The model favors ARI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — May 7, 2026

FINAL+2PIT

PIT

21-17

ARI

17-19

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

21,827 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

ARI no-vig %

48.9%

open 48.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
51.1%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.1%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.4%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at ARI?: The model favors ARI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

ARI vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.3± 2.8medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.5± 2.4medium
Bubba ChandlerPIT
4.7± 3.3medium

Hits

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.4± 1.0high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.2± 0.8high
Ketel MarteARI
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
2.6± 3.1high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.0± 2.2high
Brandon LowePIT
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
0.9± 1.2high
Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.7± 1.9high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.3medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.1low
Mitch KellerPIT
3.4± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

ARI

.744

OPS

◀

.719

.693

.335

OBP

◀

.319

.309

5.01

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.30

4.17

Team ERA

◀

4.19

4.30

1.31

WHIP

1.31

1.30

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 4 · ARI 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ARI +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	4
ARI	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. CruzCF	.245	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Lowe2B	.266	5	2	3	1	1	0	0
B. ReynoldsLF	.254	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. O'HearnRF	.292	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
S. Horwitz1B	.245	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
K. GriffinSS	.257	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. TrioloSS	.194	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. CookRF	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BartC	.220	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
Team		34	4	7	4	2	3	8

Player

.245

.266

.254

.292

.245

.257

.194

.235

.220

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellerSP	6.0	4	2	2	2	4	84
D. SantanaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	13
M. MontgomeryRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	16
I. MattsonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
G. SotoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	5	2	2	4	6	133

Player

6.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

9.0

133

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. PerdomoSS	.234	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
K. Marte2B	.209	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CarrollRF	.264	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
A. Del CastilloDH	.219	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
I. Vargas1B	.360	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. FernandezDH	.292	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. BarrosaCF	.194	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. McCannC	.192	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. ThomasCF	.181	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Arenado3B	.272	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. MorenoC	.246	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TawaLF	.152	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	5	2	1	4	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. GallenSP	6.0	6	4	4	2	5	100
B. GarciaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
R. ThompsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
P. SewaldRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	19
Team	9.0	7	4	4	3	8	140

Team

PIT

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

ARI vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.