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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2HOU
LAA

LAA

2-2

7
9
HOU

HOU

2-2

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
30,848 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

HOU spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

HOU no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.8%

-1.0-2.0HOU SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL64.8%56.8%HOU NO-VIG %MODEL 59.7%May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 12 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

LAA 7 · HOU 9 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0042000017
HOU040020039

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    96
    1(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 94
    39
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 94
    208
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 94
    39
    18(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 13, 26sim 92
    205
    23(H)16
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 92
    2010
    17(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+144

Close price

+144

Open no-vig

39.2%

Close no-vig

39.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sun, Mar 29·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasHOU -175

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros held off Los Angeles Angels, 9–7.

HOU -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Zach Neto

Zach Neto

SS

2.800OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez

DH

1.300OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA2-2
7
9
HOU2-2
LAA2-2·HOU2-2
LAA

LAA

2-2

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-22212130
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-44110012
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
1-33111020
SPRINT25.920
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-55113003
SPRINT2622
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-44000011
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
2-44021000
SPRINT27.867
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-44000004
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
1-33110002
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-33100011
J. CandelarioJ. Candelario3B
0-11000000
Team7-33337771813
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. KochanowiczJ. Kochanowicz★SP
4.0465530
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
1.0100010
S. BachmanS. BachmanRP
2.0000220
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.0233200
Team8.0798960
HOU

HOU

2-2

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
0-55000002
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
1-22111030
SPRINT24.64
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
2-55122001
SPRINT25.18
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-33111021
SPRINT27.867
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
0-44000010
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
1-55110002
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
1-33112010
SPRINT25.920
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-22200010
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
1-22112010
SPRINT22.90
Team7-3131978096
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. ImaiT. Imai★SP
2.2344440
R. MunozR. MunozRP
2.0322141
C. RoaC. RoaRP
0.1000010
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.0000100
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
2.0000020
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
0.1011200
B. KingB. KingRP
0.2100020
Team9.07778131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • J. Kochanowicz
    94 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      34%·95.7 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      30%·89.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      16%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Bachman
    34 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      62%·88.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      24%·98.3 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      15%·91.7 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      76%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      24%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Silseth
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • ST
      36%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      29%·88.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·96.2 mph·0% whiff

HOU

  • T. Imai
    74 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      35%·87.8 mph·42% whiff
    • FS
      9%·84.6 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      4%·79.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      1%·86.9 mph·— whiff
  • R. Munoz
    47 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      45%·86.5 mph·64% whiff
    • FF
      28%·94.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.7 mph·75% whiff
    • FC
      11%·91.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      4%·89.2 mph·— whiff
  • A. Blubaugh
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      39%·96.2 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      35%·86.4 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      26%·84.0 mph·67% whiff
  • B. King
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      61%·93.4 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      22%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·91.4 mph·— whiff
  • S. Okert
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • SL
      80%·80.2 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      20%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Abreu
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      86%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·87.3 mph·— whiff
  • C. Roa
    3 pitches·67% CSW
    • SI
      67%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·98.1 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

7

Runs

9

1

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Mar 26LAALAA3@HOUHOU0
Mar 28LAALAA6@HOUHOU2
Mar 28LAALAA9@HOUHOU11
Mar 29LAALAA7@HOUHOU9today

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Mar 26LAALAA3@HOUHOU0
Mar 28LAALAA6@HOUHOU2
Mar 28LAALAA9@HOUHOU11
Mar 29LAALAA7@HOUHOU9today
Jun 9HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 10HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 11HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 28HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 29HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 30HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 19LAALAA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 20LAALAA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 21LAALAA@HOUHOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA+14441%
HOUHOU-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 29pp · Bottom 8th Inning

LAALAA
Z. Neto

Z. Neto

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.800 OPS

J. Kochanowicz

J. Kochanowicz

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 4 H · 5 BB

HOUHOU
Y. Alvarez

Y. Alvarez

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.300 OPS

T. Imai

T. Imai

SP

Starting pitcher

2.2 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

How it ended

HOU beat LAA 9-7. Paredes's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Win probability

HOU vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 4th Inning · 6-4
+20pp→ 64% WP

Neto · homered to left (365 feet), d'Arnaud scored.

HOUBottom 5th Inning · 6-6
+28pp→ 62% WP

Walker · doubled to right, Altuve scored and Paredes scored.

HOUBottom 8th Inning · 6-8
+29pp→ 95% WP

Paredes · doubled to right, Alvarez scored and Smith scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0042000017
HOU04002003—9

Period scoring

LAA won 2 · HOU won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
4

Inn 2

Alvarez 1

4
0

Inn 3

Soler 3

2
0

Inn 4

Neto 2

0
2

Inn 5

Walker 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
3

Inn 8

Paredes 2

1

Inn 9

Schanuel 1

LAA
HOU

Play-by-play · 668 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  2. T9

    Moncada struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

    +7pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  12. T9

    Bryan King pitches to Yoan Moncada

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  13. T9

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  14. T9

    Soler struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

    +10pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  20. T9

    Bryan King pitches to Jorge Soler

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  21. T9

    Teodosio ran for Schanuel

    ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  22. T9

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  23. T9

    Schanuel singled to right, Frazier scored, Trout to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

    −8pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 9

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 9

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 9

  28. T9

    Bryan King pitches to Nolan Schanuel

    · ·

    LAA 7·HOU 9

  29. T9

    King relieved Abreu

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 9

  30. T9

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 9

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

7

Runs

9

7

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

12

TB

12

1

HR

0

8

BB

9

13

K

6

18

LOB

21

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 9·LAA +144/HOU -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

HOU vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    59.1%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.6%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.5%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.82 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bryce TeodosioLAA · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483