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FINAL+2BAL
MIN

MIN

1-2

6
8
BAL

BAL

2-1

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
18,071 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BAL no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

-1.0-2.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL63.3%55.3%BAL NO-VIG %MODEL 59.0%May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

MIN 6 · BAL 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0400001106
BAL000302308

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Mar 29·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -163

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Minnesota Twins, 8–6.

BAL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Trevor Larnach

Trevor Larnach

LF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Adley Rutschman

Adley Rutschman

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN1-2
6
8
BAL2-1
MIN1-2·BAL2-1
MIN

MIN

1-2

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-44000012
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-44010012
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44010010
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-55110003
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
2-33220011
SPRINT25.18
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
2-55120000
SPRINT24.22
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
2-22121000
SPRINT26.632
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-44111102
SPRINT27.251
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
2-44023001
SPRINT26.428
A. MartinA. MartinLF
0-11000001
J. OutmanJ. OutmanCF
0-11000010
Team12-373761251512
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. OberB. Ober★SP
4.0433111
M. AbelM. AbelSP
3.1855440
A. BandaA. BandaRP
0.2000000
Team8.01288551
BAL

BAL

2-1

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-44110011
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-44110011
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
2-33121010
SPRINT25.29
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
0-33000000
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
1-33110011
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
1-33213110
SPRINT27.662
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
2-44121000
SPRINT2872
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
1-44012000
SPRINT29.194
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-33010002
A. RutschmanA. RutschmanC
1-11111000
SPRINT26.632
B. AlexanderB. Alexander3B
1-11010000
Team12-33338128155
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BazS. Baz★SP
5.1744040
G. WolframG. WolframRP
1.0100020
Y. HiraldoY. HiraldoRP
0.1111311
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
0.1000010
T. WellsT. WellsRP
0.2211220
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
0.1000010
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0100010
Team9.012665121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • M. Abel
    81 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      52%·95.8 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      15%·88.4 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      15%·87.4 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      9%·83.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      6%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·94.5 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Ober
    56 pitches·21% CSW
    • CH
      41%·83.7 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      29%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·76.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·74.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Banda
    3 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·79.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      33%·93.4 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • S. Baz
    78 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      36%·97.1 mph·14% whiff
    • KC
      35%·86.0 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      24%·90.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      4%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      1%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Wells
    27 pitches·41% CSW
    • CH
      41%·87.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      30%·93.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      19%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·87.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      4%·79.1 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Hiraldo
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FS
      45%·86.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      35%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      65%·99.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·89.1 mph·— whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    19 pitches·42% CSW
    • SI
      53%·95.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      21%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·94.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      11%·85.1 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Cano
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      56%·95.2 mph·60% whiff
    • FS
      33%·93.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      11%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      75%·96.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      25%·86.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

12

6

Runs

8

0

Errors

1

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

Mar 26MINMIN1@BALBAL2
Mar 28MINMIN4@BALBAL1
Mar 29MINMIN6@BALBAL8today

Season series

BAL leads series 2-1

Mar 26MINMIN1@BALBAL2
Mar 28MINMIN4@BALBAL1
Mar 29MINMIN6@BALBAL8today
Aug 10BALBAL@MINMINupcoming
Aug 11BALBAL@MINMINupcoming
Aug 12BALBAL@MINMINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN+13543%
BALBAL-16362%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 32pp · Bottom 6th Inning

MINMIN
T. Larnach

T. Larnach

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

M. Abel

M. Abel

SP

Top reliever

3.1 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 4 BB

BALBAL
A. Rutschman

A. Rutschman

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 7 H

How it ended

BAL beat MIN 8-6. Beavers's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Win probability

BAL vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 4th Inning · 4-3
+26pp→ 46% WP

O'Neill · homered to left (391 feet), Alonso scored and Basallo scored.

BALBottom 6th Inning · 4-5
+32pp→ 76% WP

Beavers · doubled to right, Mayo scored and O'Neill scored.

MINTop 7th Inning · 5-5
+18pp→ 41% WP

Lewis · homered to left (377 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0400001106
BAL00030230—8

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · BAL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

4
0

Inn 2

Gray 3

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

O'Neill 3

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Beavers 2

1
3

Inn 7

Lewis 1

Alonso 1

1
0

Inn 8

Gray 1

0

Inn 9

MIN
BAL

Play-by-play · 628 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  2. T9

    Outman flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

    +6pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  6. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to James Outman

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  7. T9

    Lee ran for Caratini

    ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  8. T9

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  9. T9

    Caratini safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Henderson, Keaschall safe at third on error.

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

    −3pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  13. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Victor Caratini

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  14. T9

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  15. T9

    Bell struck out looking.

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

    +5pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  22. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Josh Bell

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  23. T9

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  24. T9

    Wallner lined out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

    +7pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  29. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Matt Wallner

    · ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

  30. T9

    ·

    MIN 6·BAL 8

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

6

Runs

8

12

Hits

12

0

Errors

1

20

TB

18

1

HR

1

5

BB

5

12

K

5

23

LOB

13

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 9·MIN +135/BAL -163

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

BAL vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.9%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    58.6%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.9%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.1%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    37
    18(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 94
    31
    7(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 93
    208
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 92
    31
    14(H)14
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 92
    42
    28(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 92
    39
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs