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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1WSH
WSH

WSH

9-10

8
7
PIT

PIT

11-8

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
10,504 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PIT no-vig %

60.0%

open 60.0%

-1.0-2.0PIT SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL64.0%56.0%PIT NO-VIG %MODEL 61.8%May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 5 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 8 · PIT 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
WSH00004120018
PIT00004200107

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 12, 26sim 99
    39
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 95
    310
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 94
    37
    18(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 94
    207
    28(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 94
    47
    29(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 93
    46
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Apr 16·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasPIT -169

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 8–7. It came down to the final possession.

WSH +1.5 cashed (PIT lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Drew Millas

Drew Millas

C

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Marcell Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna

DH

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
WSH9-10
8
7
PIT11-8
WSH9-10·PIT11-8
WSH

WSH

9-10

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
2-66121002
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-33101001
SPRINT26.735
B. HouseB. House★3B
1-66010002
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-55120001
SPRINT29.395
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-22010020
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-44001002
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
1-44310001
SPRINT26.838
D. MillasD. Millas★C
2-22120000
SPRINT27.354
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-22100021
C. MeadC. Mead1B
0-33000000
J. WiemerJ. WiemerRF
1-11011000
K. RuizK. RuizC
0-22000000
Team10-404081040410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. GriffinF. Griffin★SP
5.1844171
P. SchultzP. SchultzRP
0.1222000
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
0.2200000
G. VarlandG. VarlandRP
0.2000000
C. PerezC. PerezRP
1.0100020
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0111210
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
1.0100010
Team10.015773111
PIT

PIT

11-8

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
3-55230010
SPRINT2993
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
2-44021001
SPRINT28.586
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
2-55121001
SPRINT28.483
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-44113111
SPRINT25.614
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
1-44010011
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
2-55021002
SPRINT27.148
J. BartJ. Bart★C
1-55110002
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
2-55021002
B. CookB. Cook★RF
1-22110000
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz1B
0-11100000
B. ReynoldsB. ReynoldsLF
0-22000001
Team15-424271571311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. AshcraftB. Ashcraft★SP
5.2552270
E. SiskE. SiskRP
0.1211010
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
1.0111120
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0000100
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
1.0100000
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0110000
Team10.010844100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • F. Griffin
    89 pitches·31% CSW
    • FC
      28%·87.5 mph·19% whiff
    • SI
      22%·91.0 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      12%·79.8 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      11%·82.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      10%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·77.6 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      7%·80.9 mph·75% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    32 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      66%·96.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      34%·86.4 mph·13% whiff
  • C. Perez
    16 pitches·50% CSW
    • CU
      63%·87.0 mph·67% whiff
    • SV
      25%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.9 mph·100% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      36%·87.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.7 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      21%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Varland
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      60%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      40%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      43%·79.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      29%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Schultz
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • FC
      100%·88.8 mph·25% whiff

PIT

  • B. Ashcraft
    90 pitches·32% CSW
    • CU
      34%·85.2 mph·48% whiff
    • FF
      31%·96.9 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      20%·92.1 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      11%·96.3 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      3%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    18 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      89%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·83.7 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • ST
      47%·85.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      24%·97.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      18%·96.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      12%·84.2 mph·100% whiff
  • E. Sisk
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      29%·91.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      21%·79.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·79.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      14%·92.0 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Lawrence
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • ST
      50%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Santana
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SL
      64%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·86.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

15

8

Runs

7

0

Errors

4

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 13WSHWSH5@PITPIT16
Apr 14WSHWSH5@PITPIT4
Apr 15WSHWSH0@PITPIT2
Apr 16WSHWSH8@PITPIT7today

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 13WSHWSH5@PITPIT16
Apr 14WSHWSH5@PITPIT4
Apr 15WSHWSH0@PITPIT2
Apr 16WSHWSH8@PITPIT7today
Jul 3PITPIT@WSHWSHupcoming
Jul 4PITPIT@WSHWSHupcoming
Jul 5PITPIT@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+13942%
PITPIT-16963%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 49pp · Bottom 10th Inning

WSHWSH
D. Millas

D. Millas

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

F. Griffin

F. Griffin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

PITPIT
M. Ozuna

M. Ozuna

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

B. Ashcraft

B. Ashcraft

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

WSH beat PIT 8-7. Mangum's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (49pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

PIT vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 5th Inning · 4-4
+37pp→ 64% WP

Ozuna · homered to left (423 feet), Mangum scored and Cruz scored.

PITBottom 9th Inning · 7-7
+38pp→ 66% WP

Lowe · reached on infield single to shortstop, Mangum scored, Yorke to second, Cruz to third.

WSHBottom 10th Inning · 8-7
+49pp→ 100% WP

Mangum · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Griffin out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
WSH00004120018
PIT00004200107

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · PIT won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

4
4

Inn 5

Garc 3

Ozuna 3

1
2

Inn 6

Wiemer 1

Griffin 1

2
0

Inn 7

Young 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Lowe 1

1
0

Inn 10

Wood 1

WSH
PIT

Play-by-play · 697 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  2. B10

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  3. B10

    Mangum grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Griffin out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

    −49pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  5. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  6. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  7. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  8. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  9. B10

    Orlando Ribalta pitches to Jake Mangum

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  10. B10

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  11. B10

    Reynolds struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

    −17pp

  12. B10

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  13. B10

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  14. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  15. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  16. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  17. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  18. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  19. B10

    Orlando Ribalta pitches to Bryan Reynolds

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  20. B10

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  21. B10

    Griffin reached on infield single to shortstop, Davis to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

    +29pp

  22. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  23. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  24. B10

    Orlando Ribalta pitches to Konnor Griffin

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  25. B10

    Ribalta relieved Beeter

    ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  26. B10

    Davis ran for Bart

    ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  27. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  28. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  29. T10

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

  30. T10

    House flied out to left.

    · ·

    WSH 8·PIT 7

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

8

Runs

7

10

Hits

15

0

Errors

4

13

TB

21

0

HR

1

4

BB

3

10

K

11

26

LOB

30

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 8.5·WSH +139/PIT -169

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

PIT vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.9%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    60.6%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.7%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.8%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.