
WSH
9-10

PIT
11-8
Line movement
7 snapshots
PIT spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
PIT no-vig %
60.0%
open 60.0%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
WSH wins
WSH 8 · PIT 7 (by 1)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked PIT +11pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Final play
“End of the 10th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
Recap · MLB
ashington Nationals went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 8–7. It came down to the final possession.
WSH +1.5 cashed (PIT lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 6.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer

Drew Millas
C
2-2
AB-H
1
R
0
RBI
PIT · top performer

Marcell Ozuna
DH
4-1
AB-H
1
R
3
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


WSH
9-10
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 2-6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT27.457 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.735 | ||||||||
| 1-6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT29.395 | ||||||||
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.838 | ||||||||
| 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.354 | ||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 10-40 | 40 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 1 | |
| 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 10.0 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
PIT
11-8
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT2993 | ||||||||
| 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.586 | ||||||||
| 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.483 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.614 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT27.148 | ||||||||
| 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 15-42 | 42 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 10.0 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantWSH
PIT
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
10
Hits
15
8
Runs
7
0
Errors
4
Current series
Series tied 2-2
Season series
Series tied 2-2
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
PIT -1.5
Total
8.5
Standard · 0.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 49pp · Bottom 10th Inning
D. Millas
CBatter of the gamePerfect day
2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS
F. Griffin
SPStarting pitcher
5.1 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 1 BB
M. Ozuna
DHBatter of the game
1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS
B. Ashcraft
SPStarting pitcher
5.2 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB
How it ended
WSH beat PIT 8-7. Mangum's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (49pp).
Last play
End of the 10th inning
Win probability
PIT vs WSH
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactOzuna · homered to left (423 feet), Mangum scored and Cruz scored.
Lowe · reached on infield single to shortstop, Mangum scored, Yorke to second, Cruz to third.
Mangum · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Griffin out at second.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Period scoring
WSH won 2 · PIT won 2
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Garc 3
Ozuna 3
Inn 6
Wiemer 1
Griffin 1
Inn 7
Young 1
Inn 8
Inn 9
Lowe 1
Inn 10
Wood 1
Play-by-play · 697 plays
End of the 10th inning
WSH 8·PIT 7
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Mangum grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Griffin out at second.BIG MOMENT
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
−49pp
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Orlando Ribalta pitches to Jake Mangum
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Reynolds struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
−17pp
Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Pitch 6 : Ball 2
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Orlando Ribalta pitches to Bryan Reynolds
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Griffin reached on infield single to shortstop, Davis to third.BIG MOMENT
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
+29pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Orlando Ribalta pitches to Konnor Griffin
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Ribalta relieved Beeter
·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Davis ran for Bart
·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Bottom of the 10th inning
WSH 8·PIT 7
Middle of the 10th inning
WSH 8·PIT 7
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
House flied out to left.
· ·
WSH 8·PIT 7
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
PIT
Home
8
Runs
7
10
Hits
15
0
Errors
4
13
TB
21
0
HR
1
4
BB
3
10
K
11
26
LOB
30
Betting line
PIT -1.5·O/U 8.5·WSH +139/PIT -169
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 77 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.9%
ensemble · PIT favored
Elo Static
60.6%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.7%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.8%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.78 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.