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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TOR
ATH

ATH

0-3

2
5
TOR

TOR

3-0

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
36,484 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

TOR no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

-1.0-2.0TOR SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL62.3%54.3%TOR NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 2 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

ATH 2 · TOR 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0000200002
TOR102110005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 27, 26sim 95
    292
    19(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 95
    113
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 95
    294
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 95
    63
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 94
    112
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 94
    262
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sun, Mar 29·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 3-0/VegasTOR -156

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Athletics, 5–2.

TOR -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Max Muncy

Max Muncy

3B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Jesus Sanchez

Jesus Sanchez

RF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH0-3
2
5
TOR3-0
ATH0-3·TOR3-0
ATH

ATH

0-3

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44010002
SPRINT28.586
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-33010012
SPRINT26.632
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-44000002
SPRINT27.148
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
0-44000002
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
2-44120001
SPRINT27.148
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-44112101
SPRINT27.969
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
0-33000002
A. WynnsA. Wynns★C
0-22000000
D. ClarkeD. Clarke★CF
0-22000002
J. McNeilJ. McNeil2B
0-11000001
L. ButlerL. ButlerRF
0-11000000
Team5-32322521115
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. MoralesL. Morales★SP
4.1555253
J.T. GinnJ.T. GinnSP
3.2100120
Team8.0655373
TOR

TOR

3-0

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-44111101
SPRINT25.920
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-33112110
SPRINT25.818
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-44020000
SPRINT26.123
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-33001012
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
1-44111101
SPRINT26.123
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-33000001
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-33000001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-33000001
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
1-22210010
SPRINT25.513
Team6-2929565337
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. LauerE. Lauer★SP
5.1322191
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.2000020
T. NanceT. NanceRP
0.2100010
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.1000010
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0100020
Team9.05221151

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • L. Morales
    71 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      39%·96.9 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      20%·84.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      18%·97.0 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      13%·90.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      10%·80.9 mph·40% whiff
  • J.T. Ginn
    45 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      36%·94.9 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      27%·88.9 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      13%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·94.5 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • E. Lauer
    87 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      60%·91.2 mph·26% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.5 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      11%·87.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      9%·75.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    22 pitches·41% CSW
    • SL
      64%·88.3 mph·44% whiff
    • CU
      23%·81.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.1 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      40%·97.1 mph·75% whiff
    • SL
      30%·88.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      20%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • CU
      56%·84.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      33%·89.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • FC
      60%·92.3 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      40%·84.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

6

2

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 3-0

Mar 27ATHATH2@TORTOR3
Mar 28ATHATH7@TORTOR8
Mar 29ATHATH2@TORTOR5today

Season series

TOR leads series 3-0

Mar 27ATHATH2@TORTOR3
Mar 28ATHATH7@TORTOR8
Mar 29ATHATH2@TORTOR5today
Sep 8TORTOR@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 9TORTOR@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 9TORTOR@ATHATHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH+12944%
TORTOR-15661%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

ATHATH
M. Muncy

M. Muncy

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

L. Morales

L. Morales

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

TORTOR
J. Sanchez

J. Sanchez

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

E. Lauer

E. Lauer

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TOR beat ATH 5-2.

Win probability

TOR vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 72% WP

Springer · homered to left (362 feet).

TORBottom 3rd Inning · 0-3
+15pp→ 86% WP

Sánchez homered to center (417 feet), Heineman scored.

ATHTop 5th Inning · 2-4
+8pp→ 20% WP

Muncy · homered to right (362 feet), Wilson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0000200002
TOR10211000—5

Period scoring

ATH won 1 · TOR won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Springer 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Okamoto 1

2
1

Inn 5

Muncy 2

Barger 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

ATH
TOR

Play-by-play · 490 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  2. T9

    Muncy struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  6. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Max Muncy

    · ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  7. T9

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  8. T9

    Wilson singled to center.

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

    −0.7pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  11. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Jacob Wilson

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  12. T9

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  13. T9

    Soderstrom struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

    +1pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  17. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Tyler Soderstrom

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  18. T9

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  19. T9

    Rooker grounded out to second.

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

    +2pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  22. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Brent Rooker

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  23. T9

    Hoffman relieved Fluharty

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  24. T9

    Straw in left field.

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  27. B8

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  28. B8

    Okamoto struck out looking.

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 5

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

2

Runs

5

5

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

9

TB

15

1

HR

3

1

BB

3

15

K

7

6

LOB

6

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 9·ATH +129/TOR -156

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

TOR vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    4.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high
  • George SpringerTOR
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    2.3± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    62.3%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.8%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.6%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586