Matchup orbital

DET

3

DET

DET

15-16

Final

Win prob

39/61

AWAY · HOME

ATL

4

ATL

ATL

22-9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

DET 3 · ATL 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0210000003
ATL2000000024

What's next

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MLBGame · Wed, Apr 29Final
DET

DET15-16

DET

@

22-9ATL

ATL

ATL
SeriesATL wins series 2-1VegasDET -143

Recap · MLB

tlanta Braves held off Detroit Tigers, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ATL +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FINALFinal
DET
DET15-163
FINAL
ATL
ATLWIN22-94

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Apr 28DETDET2@ATLATL5
Apr 29DETDET3@ATLATL4today
Apr 30DETDET5@ATLATL2

Season series

ATL leads series 2-0

Apr 28DETDET2@ATLATL5
Apr 29DETDET3@ATLATL4today
Apr 30DETDET5@ATLATL2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET-14359%
ATLATL+11946%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 3 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 60pp · Bottom 9th Inning

DETDET
R. Greene

R. Greene

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 5 H

ATLATL
O. Albies

O. Albies

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

J. Ritchie

J. Ritchie

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

How it ended

ATL beat DET 4-3. Olson's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (60pp).

Win probability

ATL vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Score progression

1 lead change

DET3
ATL4

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+18pp→ 66% WP

Albies · homered to left (400 feet), Baldwin scored.

ATLBottom 8th Inning · 3-2
+13pp→ 36% WP

Acu · ña Jr. walked, Mateo to second.

ATLBottom 9th Inning · 3-4
+60pp→ 100% WP

Olson · homered to right center (397 feet), Albies scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0210000003
ATL2000000024

Period scoring

DET won 2 · ATL won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Albies 2

2
0

Inn 2

McGonigle 1

1
0

Inn 3

Greene 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
2

Inn 9

Olson 2

DET
ATL

Game flow · key plays

  1. B9

    Olson homered to right center (397 feet), Albies scored.

    DET 3·ATL 4

    +60pp

  2. B9

    Albies walked.

    DET 3·ATL 2

    +13pp

  3. B8

    Baldwin grounded out to shortstop.

    DET 3·ATL 2

    −12pp

  4. B8

    Acuña Jr. walked, Mateo to second.

    DET 3·ATL 2

    +13pp

  5. T3

    Greene homered to center (417 feet).

    DET 3·ATL 2

    −12pp

  6. B1

    Albies homered to left (400 feet), Baldwin scored.

    DET 0·ATL 2

    +18pp

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

5

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

3

Runs

4

Player box score

DET

DET

15-16

3
K. McGonigle

K. McGonigle★

SS

OPS

1.000

H-AB

2-4

R

0

RBI

1

HR

0

G. Torres

G. Torres★

2B

OPS

0.250

H-AB

0-3

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

C. Keith

C. Keith★

3B

OPS

0.500

H-AB

1-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

R. Greene

R. Greene★

LF

OPS

1.250

H-AB

1-4

R

1

RBI

1

HR

1

D. Dingler

D. Dingler★

C

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

K. Carpenter

K. Carpenter★

RF

OPS

0.250

H-AB

0-3

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

S. Torkelson

S. Torkelson★

1B

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

W. Perez

W. Perez★

RF

OPS

0.833

H-AB

1-3

R

1

RBI

0

HR

0

J. Jung

J. Jung★

3B

OPS

0.500

H-AB

0-1

R

1

RBI

0

HR

0

J. Jones

J. Jones

RF

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-2

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

Team total

H-AB

5-32

R

3

RBI

2

HR

1

T. Skubal

T. Skubal★

SP

IP

7.0

H

5

ER

2

K

7

K. Finnegan

K. Finnegan

RP

IP

1.0

H

0

ER

0

K

1

Team total

IP

8.0

H

6

ER

4

K

8

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 8·DET -143/ATL +119

DraftKings · via ESPN