• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1TOR
ATH

ATH

0-1

2
3
TOR

TOR

1-0

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
42,728 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

TOR no-vig %

60.0%

open 60.0%

-1.0-2.0TOR SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL64.0%56.0%TOR NO-VIG %MODEL 61.8%May 4, 11 AMMay 30, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

ATH 2 · TOR 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0001000012
TOR0000200013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Mar 27·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 3-0/VegasTOR -169

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Athletics, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ATH +1.5 cashed (TOR won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Shea Langeliers

Shea Langeliers

C

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Kazuma Okamoto

Kazuma Okamoto

3B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH0-1
2
3
TOR1-0
ATH0-1·TOR1-0
ATH

ATH

0-1

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
0-44000003
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
3-44232201
SPRINT28.586
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
0-33000012
SPRINT26.735
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-44000003
SPRINT27.148
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
0-44000002
SPRINT27.148
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-33000001
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-33000002
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-22000011
D. ClarkeD. Clarke★CF
0-22000001
C. CortesC. CortesRF
0-11000000
Team3-30302322216
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. SeverinoL. Severino★SP
5.0322330
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
1.2100000
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
1.1000100
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
0.2311000
Team8.2733430
TOR

TOR

1-0

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-44000000
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-33000010
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT26.123
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-44000001
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-44000000
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-44000001
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
2-33220011
SPRINT26.123
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
2-44120000
SPRINT27.354
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
2-33023010
SPRINT27.560
Team7-3232373043
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
6.01110111
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0100110
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0000100
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0111041
Team9.03222162

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • L. Severino
    84 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      27%·97.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      26%·94.7 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      20%·84.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      19%·96.9 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      1%·87.6 mph·— whiff
  • H. Harris
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      65%·96.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      29%·75.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Barlow
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • CU
      40%·75.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      33%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·88.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Sterner
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      47%·93.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      27%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·81.8 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    83 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      49%·94.7 mph·21% whiff
    • FS
      43%·84.0 mph·53% whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    22 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      41%·89.2 mph·57% whiff
    • FS
      36%·89.6 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      23%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Varland
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      56%·98.5 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      31%·87.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      6%·92.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • SI
      85%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·73.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

7

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 3-0

Mar 27ATHATH2@TORTOR3today
Mar 28ATHATH7@TORTOR8
Mar 29ATHATH2@TORTOR5

Season series

TOR leads series 1-0

Mar 27ATHATH2@TORTOR3today
Mar 28ATHATH7@TORTOR8
Mar 29ATHATH2@TORTOR5
Sep 8TORTOR@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 9TORTOR@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 9TORTOR@ATHATHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH+13942%
TORTOR-16963%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 38pp · Bottom 9th Inning

ATHATH
S. Langeliers

S. Langeliers

C

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

L. Severino

L. Severino

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

TORTOR
K. Okamoto

K. Okamoto

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.417 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 11 K · 1 ER · 1 H

How it ended

TOR beat ATH 3-2. Gim's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (38pp).

Win probability

TOR vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 5th Inning · 1-2
+23pp→ 80% WP

Gim · énez tripled to left, Okamoto scored and Clement scored.

ATHTop 9th Inning · 2-2
+35pp→ 44% WP

Langeliers · homered to center (414 feet).

TORBottom 9th Inning · 2-3
+38pp→ 100% WP

Gim · énez singled to right, Okamoto scored, Clement to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0001000012
TOR0000200013

Period scoring

ATH won 1 · TOR won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Langeliers 1

0
2

Inn 5

Gim 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
1

Inn 9

Langeliers 1

Gim 1

ATH
TOR

Play-by-play · 515 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    ATH 2·TOR 3

  2. B9

    Giménez singled to right, Okamoto scored, Clement to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 2·TOR 3

    +38pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 2·TOR 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  6. B9

    Justin Sterner pitches to Andres Gimenez

    · ·

    ATH 2·TOR 3

  7. B9

    · ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  8. B9

    Clement doubled to left, Okamoto to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

    +6pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  10. B9

    Justin Sterner pitches to Ernie Clement

    · ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  11. B9

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  12. B9

    Okamoto singled to right.

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

    +2pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  17. B9

    Justin Sterner pitches to Kazuma Okamoto

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  18. B9

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  19. B9

    Varsho grounded out to pitcher.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

    −5pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  23. B9

    Justin Sterner pitches to Daulton Varsho

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  24. B9

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  25. B9

    Kirk grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

    −6pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

  30. B9

    Justin Sterner pitches to Alejandro Kirk

    ·

    ATH 2·TOR 2

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

2

Runs

3

3

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

9

TB

11

2

HR

0

2

BB

4

16

K

3

7

LOB

9

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 8.5·ATH +139/TOR -169

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 29, 26sim 94
    112
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 94
    133
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 93
    135
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 93
    62
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 93
    63
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 93
    65
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

TOR vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    4.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high
  • George SpringerTOR
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    2.3± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    60.6%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.9%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.9%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.