• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+6LAD
ARI

ARI

0-1

2
8
LAD

LAD

1-0

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
53,712 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

LAD no-vig %

70.9%

open 70.9%

-1.0-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL74.9%66.9%LAD NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

ARI 2 · LAD 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0002000002
LAD000040408

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 28, 26sim 97
    294
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 95
    295
    16(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    112
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 95
    113
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 95
    282
    10(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 94
    174
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+229

Close price

+229

Open no-vig

29.1%

Close no-vig

29.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Thu, Mar 26·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-0/VegasLAD -286

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Geraldo Perdomo

Geraldo Perdomo

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Will Smith

Will Smith

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI0-1
2
8
LAD1-0
ARI0-1·LAD1-0
ARI

ARI

0-1

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-44000001
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-44110000
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
2-44122101
SPRINT26.838
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
0-44000001
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-33010001
SPRINT25.29
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
0-33000001
J. LawlarJ. Lawlar★LF
1-33010001
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-33000001
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.662
Team6-3131262108
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. GallenZ. Gallen★SP
4.0544221
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
1.0100110
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
1.0000010
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
0.1344001
A. HoffmannA. HoffmannRP
1.2100200
Team8.01088542
LAD

LAD

1-0

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-33110010
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-44111010
SPRINT26.123
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-44111001
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-44000010
W. SmithW. Smith★C
2-44123100
SPRINT2744
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-22110021
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-44110000
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
2-44123101
SPRINT28.175
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-44110001
Team10-33338108254
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
6.0522061
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0100010
W. KleinW. KleinRP
1.0000010
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0000000
Team9.0622081

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • R. Thompson
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • SL
      71%·77.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·89.1 mph·0% whiff

LAD

  • T. Scott
    6 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      50%·90.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

10

2

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 3-0

Mar 27ARIARI2@LADLAD8today
Mar 28ARIARI4@LADLAD5
Mar 29ARIARI2@LADLAD3

Season series

LAD lead series 1-0

Mar 27ARIARI2@LADLAD8today
Mar 28ARIARI4@LADLAD5
Mar 29ARIARI2@LADLAD3
Jun 2LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Jun 3LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Jun 4LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Jun 5LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 11ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Jul 12ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Jul 12ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Aug 8LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 9LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 9LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+22930%
LADLAD-28674%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 29pp · Bottom 5th Inning

ARIARI
G. Perdomo

G. Perdomo

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

LADLAD
W. Smith

W. Smith

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H

How it ended

LAD beat ARI 8-2. Pages's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Win probability

LAD vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 4th Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 60% WP

Perdomo · homered to right (398 feet), Carroll scored.

LADBottom 5th Inning · 2-3
+29pp→ 79% WP

Pages · homered to left center (400 feet), Muncy scored and T. Hernández scored.

LADBottom 5th Inning · 2-4
+8pp→ 87% WP

Smith · reached on infield single to first, Rojas scored, Freeman to second, Ohtani to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0002000002
LAD00004040—8

Period scoring

ARI won 1 · LAD won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Perdomo 2

0
4

Inn 5

Pages 3

0
0

Inn 6

0
4

Inn 7

Smith 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

ARI
LAD

Play-by-play · 536 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  2. T9

    Moreno flied out to shortstop.

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  6. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Gabriel Moreno

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  7. T9

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  8. T9

    Perdomo grounded out to third.

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  11. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Geraldo Perdomo

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  12. T9

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  13. T9

    Carroll fouled out to left.

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  17. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Corbin Carroll

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  18. T9

    Scott relieved Klein

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  19. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  20. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  21. B8

    · ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  22. B8

    Freeman grounded out to first.

    · ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  23. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  24. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  25. B8

    Andrew Hoffmann pitches to Freddie Freeman

    · ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  26. B8

    · ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  27. B8

    Betts hit by pitch, Tucker to second, Pages to third.

    · ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  29. B8

    Andrew Hoffmann pitches to Mookie Betts

    · ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

  30. B8

    · ·

    ARI 2·LAD 8

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

2

Runs

8

6

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

10

TB

17

1

HR

2

0

BB

5

8

K

4

5

LOB

19

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 9·ARI +229/LAD -286

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAD vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.4%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    62.9%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.4%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.7%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.