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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3LAD
SF

SF

18-26

2
5
LAD

LAD

26-18

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
51,048 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

LAD no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.8%

+0.5-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL64.8%56.8%LAD NO-VIG %MODEL 64.2%May 13, 5 PMMay 14, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

SF 2 · LAD 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0000200002
LAD110003005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+22.6pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

SF

★ best
+610DraftKings

edge +22.6pp · implied 13.2%

LAD

no live price

BookSFLADBest edge
DraftKings+610★-1240+22.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Thu, May 14·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasLAD -186

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off San Francisco Giants, 5–2.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Jung Hoo Lee

Jung Hoo Lee

RF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Alex Call

Alex Call

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
SF18-26
2
5
LAD26-18
SF18-26·LAD26-18
SF

SF

18-26

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-33112100
SPRINT27.148
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-44000000
SPRINT26.632
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
0-44000004
SPRINT2872
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.716
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
0-44000000
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-33000012
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-33000002
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
0-22000011
E. HaaseE. Haase★C
0-22100010
Team2-29292221310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. RouppL. Roupp★SP
5.1644271
M. GageM. GageRP
0.1211110
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
1.1000000
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
1.0000110
Team8.0855491
LAD

LAD

26-18

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-33111112
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-44000001
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-44000001
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-33000010
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-33200010
SPRINT27.354
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
3-44130001
SPRINT28.381
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
0-33000013
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-22011001
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
2-33021000
SPRINT26.123
A. CallA. CallLF
1-11112000
SPRINT27.765
S. EspinalS. Espinal3B
0-11000000
Team8-3131585149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. SheehanE. Sheehan★SP
6.0222261
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
1.0000010
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.0000110
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0000020
Team9.02223101

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

8

2

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

May 12SFSF9@LADLAD3
May 13SFSF6@LADLAD2
May 14SFSF0@LADLAD4
May 15SFSF2@LADLAD5today

Season series

SF leads series 4-3

Apr 22LADLAD1@SFSF3
Apr 23LADLAD0@SFSF3
Apr 23LADLAD3@SFSF0
May 12SFSF9@LADLAD3
May 13SFSF6@LADLAD2
May 14SFSF0@LADLAD4
May 15SFSF2@LADLAD5today
Sep 19SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 20SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 20SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 26LADLAD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 26LADLAD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 27LADLAD@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.5h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

SFSF+15340%
LADLAD-18665%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 22pp · Bottom 6th Inning

SFSF
J. Lee

J. Lee

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

L. Roupp

L. Roupp

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

LADLAD
A. Call

A. Call

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

E. Sheehan

E. Sheehan

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat SF 5-2. Call's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Win probability

LAD vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 79% WP

Smith · homered to right center (390 feet).

SFTop 5th Inning · 2-2
+19pp→ 33% WP

Lee · inside-the-park home run to left (225 feet), Haase scored.

LADBottom 6th Inning · 2-4
+22pp→ 89% WP

Call · singled to right, Muncy scored and T. Hernández scored, Call to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0000200002
LAD11000300—5

Period scoring

SF won 1 · LAD won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Smith 1

0
1

Inn 2

Kim 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Lee 2

0
3

Inn 6

Call 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SF
LAD

Play-by-play · 542 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  2. T9

    Adames struck out swinging.

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  7. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Willy Adames

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  8. T9

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  9. T9

    Ramos lined out to center.

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

    +0.8pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  11. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Heliot Ramos

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  12. T9

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  13. T9

    Devers struck out swinging.

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

    +2pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  18. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Rafael Devers

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  19. T9

    Scott relieved Vesia

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  20. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SF 2·LAD 5

  21. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SF 2·LAD 5

  22. B8

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  23. B8

    Espinal grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Rushing out at second.

    · ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

    −0.6pp

  24. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  25. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  26. B8

    JT Brubaker pitches to Santiago Espinal

    · ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  27. B8

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  28. B8

    Rushing walked.

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SF 2·LAD 5

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

2

Runs

5

2

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

5

TB

13

1

HR

1

3

BB

4

10

K

9

8

LOB

17

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 7.5·SF +153/LAD -186

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-175

Close price

-175

Open no-vig

60.8%

Close no-vig

60.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

LAD vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.4± 2.1high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    62.4%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.8%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.5%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 29, 26sim 96
    63
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 96
    144
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 94
    112
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 94
    65
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 94
    62
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 94
    142
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs