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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2NYY
ATH

ATH

3-7

3
5
NYY

NYY

8-2

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
39,853 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYY no-vig %

69.9%

open 69.9%

-1.0-2.0NYY SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL73.9%65.9%NYY NO-VIG %MODEL 66.1%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

ATH 3 · NYY 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0030000003
NYY010000045

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+218

Close price

+218

Open no-vig

30.1%

Close no-vig

30.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Tue, Apr 7·Final/SeriesATH wins series 2-1/VegasNYY -271

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Athletics, 5–3.

NYY -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total pushed exactly on 8.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Jeff McNeil

Jeff McNeil

2B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Amed Rosario

Amed Rosario

3B

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

MLB · Athletics at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH3-7
3
5
NYY8-2
ATH3-7·NYY8-2
ATH

ATH

3-7

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-55112002
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
0-44000003
SPRINT28.586
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
2-44021000
SPRINT26.735
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-33000011
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
0-44000001
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-22000021
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-44110002
SPRINT27.969
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
2-33120011
SPRINT25.920
D. ClarkeD. Clarke★CF
0-22000002
C. CortesC. CortesRF
0-11000000
Team6-32323630413
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. CivaleA. Civale★SP
5.0211461
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
2.0200010
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
0.2544001
J. KuhnelJ. KuhnelRP
0.1000000
Team8.0955472
NYY

NYY

8-2

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-55000000
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-22000010
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT27.560
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-22110020
SPRINT26.941
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-44011002
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-44010001
A. RosarioA. Rosario★3B
2-44224201
SPRINT28.278
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-33010011
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
2-44020001
SPRINT28.278
Team9-3232595247
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SchlittlerC. Schlittler★SP
5.0533070
J. BirdJ. BirdRP
0.2100010
B. HeadrickB. HeadrickRP
1.0000230
F. CruzF. CruzRP
1.1000210
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0000010
Team9.06334130

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • A. Civale
    88 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      30%·86.4 mph·30% whiff
    • SI
      24%·91.1 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      19%·76.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      11%·91.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      11%·81.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      5%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    28 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      29%·92.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      21%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      14%·73.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Sterner
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • ST
      41%·81.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      33%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      26%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Kuhnel
    5 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      60%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·89.1 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      20%·89.6 mph·— whiff

NYY

  • C. Schlittler
    84 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      38%·96.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.6 mph·45% whiff
    • FC
      27%·93.1 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      5%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·90.6 mph·— whiff
  • B. Headrick
    22 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      45%·92.9 mph·75% whiff
    • SL
      41%·82.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      9%·92.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      5%·83.8 mph·— whiff
  • F. Cruz
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FS
      50%·79.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      30%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·81.4 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      43%·74.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      7%·90.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. Bird
    10 pitches·60% CSW
    • ST
      60%·82.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      20%·79.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      10%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·94.7 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

9

3

Runs

5

1

Errors

1

Current series

ATH wins series 2-1

Apr 7ATHATH3@NYYNYY5today
Apr 8ATHATH3@NYYNYY2
Apr 9ATHATH1@NYYNYY0

Season series

NYY lead series 1-0

Apr 7ATHATH3@NYYNYY5today
Apr 8ATHATH3@NYYNYY2
Apr 9ATHATH1@NYYNYY0
May 30NYYNYY8@ATHATH2
May 31NYYNYY@ATHATHupcoming
May 31NYYNYY@ATHATHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH+21831%
NYYNYY-27173%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 50pp · Bottom 8th Inning

ATHATH
J. McNeil

J. McNeil

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

A. Civale

A. Civale

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

NYYNYY
A. Rosario

A. Rosario

3B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 5 H

How it ended

NYY beat ATH 5-3. Rosario's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (50pp).

Win probability

NYY vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 46% WP

Kurtz · doubled to center, McNeil scored and Muncy scored.

NYYBottom 8th Inning · 3-1
+13pp→ 43% WP

Rice · singled to right, Bellinger to third.

NYYBottom 8th Inning · 3-5
+50pp→ 95% WP

Rosario · homered to left (414 feet), Rice scored and Grichuk scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0030000003
NYY01000004—5

Period scoring

ATH won 1 · NYY won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Rosario 1

3
0

Inn 3

Kurtz 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
4

Inn 8

Rosario 3

0

Inn 9

ATH
NYY

Play-by-play · 573 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  2. T9

    Kurtz flied out to right.

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  6. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Nick Kurtz

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  7. T9

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  8. T9

    Cortes flied out to right.

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

    +2pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  12. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Carlos Cortes

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  13. T9

    Cortes hit for Clarke

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  14. T9

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  15. T9

    McNeil struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

    +3pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  24. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Jeff McNeil

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  25. T9

    Bednar relieved Cruz

    ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  26. T9

    McMahon at third base.

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  27. T9

    Grichuk as designated hitter.

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ATH 3·NYY 5

  30. B8

    · ·

    ATH 3·NYY 5

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

3

Runs

5

6

Hits

9

1

Errors

1

8

TB

17

0

HR

2

4

BB

4

13

K

7

15

LOB

18

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 8·ATH +218/NYY -271

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    2.3± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.0%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    63.8%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    67.1%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    65.1%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.35 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 28, 26sim 98
    294
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 95
    292
    19(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    112
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 95
    113
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 94
    292
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 94
    174
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs