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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAD
ARI

ARI

0-2

4
5
LAD

LAD

2-0

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
51,540 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

LAD no-vig %

67.5%

open 67.5%

-1.0-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL71.5%63.5%LAD NO-VIG %MODEL 66.2%May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

ARI 4 · LAD 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0112000004
LAD004000015

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Player projections

LAD vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.7%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    63.9%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.9%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.7%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+194

Close price

+194

Open no-vig

32.5%

Close no-vig

32.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 7, 26sim 98
    113
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 97
    292
    19(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 95
    174
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 95
    282
    30(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    112
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 94
    292
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Mar 27·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-0/VegasLAD -240

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ARI +1.5 cashed (LAD won by 1). Total pushed exactly on 9.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Alek Thomas

Alek Thomas

CF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

3

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Alex Freeland

Alex Freeland

2B

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI0-2
4
5
LAD2-0
ARI0-2·LAD2-0
ARI

ARI

0-2

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
2-55121101
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-44000002
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT26.838
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
2-44120000
SPRINT26.428
P. SmithP. Smith★1B
0-22100020
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-44000004
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
1-33110011
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
2-33023011
SPRINT27.867
J. LawlarJ. Lawlar★LF
0-44000002
Team8-33334841412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. NelsonR. Nelson★SP
4.2244342
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
1.1000010
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
1.0000000
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
1.0211000
Team8.0455352
LAD

LAD

2-0

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-33100011
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-33111012
SPRINT26.123
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-44113100
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-44000000
SPRINT24.74
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-33000000
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-22000011
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-33000001
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-33000000
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
2-33221100
SPRINT26.941
Team4-2828545235
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. SheehanE. Sheehan★SP
3.1544261
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
1.2100010
B. CaspariusB. CaspariusRP
0.2100110
T. ScottT. ScottRP
0.1000010
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.0100000
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
1.0000010
E. DiazE. DiazRP
1.0000120
Team9.08444121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • J. Loaisiga
    18 pitches·11% CSW
    • CU
      50%·89.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      33%·97.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      11%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·97.5 mph·— whiff

LAD

  • A. Vesia
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      58%·91.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      42%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Diaz
    10 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      80%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

4

4

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 3-0

Mar 27ARIARI2@LADLAD8
Mar 28ARIARI4@LADLAD5today
Mar 29ARIARI2@LADLAD3

Season series

LAD lead series 2-0

Mar 27ARIARI2@LADLAD8
Mar 28ARIARI4@LADLAD5today
Mar 29ARIARI2@LADLAD3
Jun 2LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Jun 3LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Jun 4LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Jun 5LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 11ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Jul 12ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Jul 12ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Aug 8LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 9LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 9LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+19434%
LADLAD-24071%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 23pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

ARIARI
A. Thomas

A. Thomas

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

R. Nelson

R. Nelson

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

LADLAD
A. Freeland

A. Freeland

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

E. Sheehan

E. Sheehan

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat ARI 5-4. Betts's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Win probability

LAD vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 59% WP

Marte · homered to right (391 feet).

LADBottom 3rd Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 54% WP

Freeland · homered to right (413 feet).

LADBottom 3rd Inning · 2-4
+23pp→ 84% WP

Betts · homered to center (388 feet), Ohtani scored and Tucker scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0112000004
LAD00400001—5

Period scoring

ARI won 2 · LAD won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Thomas 1

1
4

Inn 3

Marte 1

Betts 3

2
0

Inn 4

Thomas 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Tucker 1

0

Inn 9

ARI
LAD

Play-by-play · 562 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  2. T9

    Marte grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

    +10pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  6. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Ketel Marte

    · ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  7. T9

    · ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  8. T9

    Lawlar struck out looking.

    · ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

    +4pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  11. T9

    Thomas stole second.

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  12. T9

    Thomas stole second.

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  15. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Jordan Lawlar

    · ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  16. T9

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  17. T9

    Thomas walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

    −7pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  24. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Alek Thomas

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  25. T9

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  26. T9

    Santana struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

    +6pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 4·LAD 5

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

4

Runs

5

8

Hits

4

1

Errors

0

15

TB

11

1

HR

2

4

BB

3

12

K

5

14

LOB

4

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 9·ARI +194/LAD -240

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175