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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TEX
TEX

TEX

1-1

5
4
PHI

PHI

1-1

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
40,051 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

PHI no-vig %

58.0%

open 58.0%

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL62.0%54.0%PHI NO-VIG %MODEL 60.9%May 4, 11 AMMay 30, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 5 · PHI 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
TEX10200000025
PHI00000000314

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-154

Close price

-154

Open no-vig

58.0%

Close no-vig

58.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, Mar 28·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -154

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

TEX +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Corey Seager

Corey Seager

SS

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Adolis Garcia

Adolis Garcia

RF

0.500OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
TEX1-1
5
4
PHI1-1
TEX1-1·PHI1-1
TEX

TEX

1-1

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
2-55220001
SPRINT28.278
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
1-55110001
SPRINT2872
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
2-44121112
SPRINT24.96
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
2-55122103
SPRINT2744
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-11000010
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-44010011
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
0-44000001
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
1-44010001
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
0-44000003
A. McCutchenA. McCutchenDH
1-33011000
SPRINT27.662
Team10-393951042313
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LatzJ. Latz★RP
4.0000130
C. WinnC. WinnRP
1.0100120
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
1.0000010
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
2.0000020
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
0.2120110
C. MartinC. MartinRP
0.1210010
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
1.0110010
Team10.05403110
PHI

PHI

1-1

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-55000002
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-55000004
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-55011000
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
1-55110000
SPRINT26.632
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-22000010
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-44111001
SPRINT26.735
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-44012001
SPRINT28.175
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-44110002
SPRINT28.381
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
0-22000011
Team5-36364540311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. NolaA. Nola★SP
5.0533272
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0100000
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
1.0100020
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
2.0100120
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0221020
Team10.010543132

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • J. Latz
    68 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      56%·92.4 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      26%·84.7 mph·56% whiff
    • CH
      10%·83.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      7%·78.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Junis
    23 pitches·43% CSW
    • CH
      35%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·81.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      17%·91.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      17%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Alexander
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      43%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·80.2 mph·— whiff
  • C. Winn
    19 pitches·53% CSW
    • FF
      42%·93.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·84.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      16%·88.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      16%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      5%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • CH
      44%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      28%·93.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      28%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Martin
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      33%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.4 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      25%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Beeks
    7 pitches·71% CSW
    • CH
      57%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      14%·81.3 mph·— whiff

PHI

  • A. Nola
    91 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      37%·91.4 mph·40% whiff
    • KC
      30%·78.0 mph·31% whiff
    • SI
      22%·90.6 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      4%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Mayza
    32 pitches·34% CSW
    • SI
      56%·93.2 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      44%·86.0 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Duran
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • FS
      50%·97.2 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      27%·99.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      14%·87.0 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      5%·90.1 mph·— whiff
    • KC
      5%·88.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Alvarado
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      72%·98.1 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      28%·91.4 mph·67% whiff
  • T. Banks
    10 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      50%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      30%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·91.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

5

5

Runs

4

2

Errors

0

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

Mar 26TEXTEX3@PHIPHI5
Mar 28TEXTEX5@PHIPHI4today
Mar 29TEXTEX8@PHIPHI3

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 26TEXTEX3@PHIPHI5
Mar 28TEXTEX5@PHIPHI4today
Mar 29TEXTEX8@PHIPHI3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX+12844%
PHIPHI-15461%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 43pp · Bottom 9th Inning

TEXTEX
C. Seager

C. Seager

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

J. Latz

J. Latz

RP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 BB

PHIPHI
A. Garcia

A. Garcia

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 R · 0.500 OPS

A. Nola

A. Nola

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TEX beat PHI 5-4. Marsh's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (43pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 9th Inning · 3-3
+43pp→ 56% WP

Marsh · singled to right, Sosa scored and García scored.

TEXTop 10th Inning · 5-3
+21pp→ 83% WP

McCutchen · singled to left, Langford scored, McCutchen to second.

TEXBottom 10th Inning · 5-4
+19pp→ 100% WP

Bohm · popped out to shortstop.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
TEX10200000025
PHI00000000314

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

5

Runs

4

10

Hits

5

2

Errors

0

16

TB

6

2

HR

0

3

BB

3

13

K

11

21

LOB

13

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 7.5·TEX +128/PHI -154

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

PHI vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Period scoring

TEX won 3 · PHI won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Seager 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Burger 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
3

Inn 9

Marsh 2

2
1

Inn 10

Seager 1

Harper 1

TEX
PHI

Play-by-play · 646 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    TEX 5·PHI 4

  2. B10

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 4

  3. B10

    Bohm popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 4

    −19pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 4

  5. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 4

  6. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 4

  7. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 4

  8. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 4

  9. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 4

  10. B10

    Tyler Alexander pitches to Alec Bohm

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 4

  11. B10

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 4

  12. B10

    Harper singled to right, Realmuto scored, Kemp to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 4

    +8pp

  13. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 4

  14. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 3

  15. B10

    Tyler Alexander pitches to Bryce Harper

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 4

  16. B10

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 3

  17. B10

    Schwarber struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 3

    −9pp

  18. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 3

  19. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 3

  20. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 3

  21. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 3

  22. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 3

  23. B10

    Tyler Alexander pitches to Kyle Schwarber

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 3

  24. B10

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 3

  25. B10

    Turner popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 3

    −13pp

  26. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 3

  27. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 3

  28. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 3

  29. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 3

  30. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 5·PHI 3

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PHI vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.8%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    60.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.7%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.4%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.89 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 26, 26sim 97
    133
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    138
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 95
    222
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 95
    62
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    302
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 93
    63
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs