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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4MIL
TB

TB

2-3

2
6
MIL

MIL

4-1

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
20,010 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

MIL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIL no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

+2.0+1.0MIL SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL57.2%49.2%MIL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

TB 2 · MIL 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB1000100002
MIL000032016

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 26, 26sim 98
    222
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 97
    223
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    302
    8(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 95
    70
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 95
    222
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 95
    72
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, Mar 31·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1/VegasMIL -126

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Tampa Bay Rays, 6–2.

MIL +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Chandler Simpson

Chandler Simpson

LF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Gary Sanchez

Gary Sanchez

DH

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB2-3
2
6
MIL4-1
TB2-3·MIL4-1
TB

TB

2-3

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-44000002
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
1-44111101
SPRINT25.29
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-33010011
SPRINT25.716
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
2-44020000
SPRINT28.278
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
0-33000001
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-33000002
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-44111100
SPRINT26.225
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
2-33020000
SPRINT29.496
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
0-44000001
R. PalaciosR. Palacios2B
0-11000000
J. DeLucaJ. DeLucaRF
0-11000000
Team7-3434272228
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. McClanahanS. McClanahan★SP
4.2232340
C. SulserC. SulserRP
1.1422001
Y. GomezY. GomezRP
2.0111221
Team8.0765562
MIL

MIL

4-1

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-33012011
SPRINT28.586
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-44000001
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-44000002
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-33000011
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
1-11211120
SPRINT24.12
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
2-44221100
SPRINT2744
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
2-44121000
SPRINT29.294
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.790
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-33100010
G. MitchellG. MitchellCF
0-11000001
Team7-3131675256
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WoodruffB. Woodruff★SP
5.0422062
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
1.0100010
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
1.0100010
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0100100
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
1.0000100
Team9.0722282

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • S. McClanahan
    79 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      37%·95.4 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      28%·86.5 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      24%·87.7 mph·27% whiff
    • CU
      11%·81.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Sulser
    31 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      39%·91.6 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      32%·83.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      26%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Gomez
    30 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      33%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.2 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      10%·83.1 mph·0% whiff

MIL

  • B. Woodruff
    67 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.1 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      30%·92.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      50%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      47%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      32%·80.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      16%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Koenig
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      69%·93.8 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      19%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.1 mph·— whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      93%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·87.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

2

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

Mar 30TBTB3@MILMIL2
Mar 31TBTB2@MILMIL6today
Apr 1TBTB2@MILMIL8

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 30TBTB3@MILMIL2
Mar 31TBTB2@MILMIL6today
Apr 1TBTB2@MILMIL8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB+10449%
MILMIL-12656%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 35pp · Bottom 5th Inning

TBTB
C. Simpson

C. Simpson

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

S. McClanahan

S. McClanahan

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

MILMIL
G. Sanchez

G. Sanchez

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

B. Woodruff

B. Woodruff

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H

How it ended

MIL beat TB 6-2. Turang's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (35pp).

Win probability

MIL vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 5th Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 59% WP

Fortes · homered to left center (408 feet).

MILBottom 5th Inning · 2-3
+35pp→ 81% WP

Turang · singled to right, Lockridge scored on error, Sánchez scored and Ortiz scored on error, Turang safe at second on error by center fielder Mullins.

MILBottom 6th Inning · 2-4
+8pp→ 88% WP

Sánchez homered to center (414 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB1000100002
MIL00003201—6

Period scoring

TB won 1 · MIL won 3

1
0

Inn 1

Aranda 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
3

Inn 5

Fortes 1

Turang 3

0
2

Inn 6

Lockridge 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Bauers 1

0

Inn 9

TB
MIL

Play-by-play · 549 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  2. T9

    Williams grounded out to first.

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  5. T9

    Angel Zerpa pitches to Carson Williams

    · ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  6. T9

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  7. T9

    Vilade walked.

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  15. T9

    Angel Zerpa pitches to Ryan Vilade

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  16. T9

    Vilade hit for Simpson

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  17. T9

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  18. T9

    Fortes grounded out to second.

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  20. T9

    Angel Zerpa pitches to Nick Fortes

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  21. T9

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  22. T9

    DeLuca flied out to center.

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

    +0.7pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  27. T9

    Angel Zerpa pitches to Jonny DeLuca

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  28. T9

    Zerpa relieved Uribe

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  29. T9

    DeLuca hit for Mullins

    ·

    TB 2·MIL 6

  30. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TB 2·MIL 6

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

2

Runs

6

7

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

16

TB

14

2

HR

2

2

BB

5

8

K

6

11

LOB

12

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 7.5·TB +104/MIL -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Ben WilliamsonTB · 2B
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

MIL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Coleman CrowMIL
    1.7± 0.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    61.8%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.5%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.2%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.