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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5TEX
TEX

TEX

2-1

8
3
PHI

PHI

1-2

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
38,018 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

PHI no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL63.3%55.3%PHI NO-VIG %MODEL 59.1%May 4, 11 AMMay 29, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 8 · PHI 3 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0023012008
PHI0000020103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Mar 29·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -163

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 8–3.

TEX +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryson Stott

Bryson Stott

2B

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX2-1
8
3
PHI1-2
TEX2-1·PHI1-2
TEX

TEX

2-1

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
2-44122100
SPRINT28.278
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-55000001
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-33101011
SPRINT24.96
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-44110003
SPRINT2744
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
2-44223101
SPRINT27.662
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
1-44011000
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
0-44000003
S. HaggertyS. Haggerty★LF
1-22110000
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-44111001
SPRINT28.891
Team8-34348882310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. GoreM. Gore★SP
5.1222370
C. WinnC. WinnRP
0.2000000
C. BaumlerC. BaumlerRP
1.2111420
C. MartinC. MartinRP
0.1000000
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0000110
Team9.03338100
PHI

PHI

1-2

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-44100011
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-22100021
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-22001010
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-33001002
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-22000001
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-22000020
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
0-22000001
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
1-33110002
SPRINT29.798
B. StottB. Stott2B
1-22011000
SPRINT28.688
B. MarshB. MarshLF
0-11000011
Team3-27273330810
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LuzardoJ. Luzardo★SP
6.0666172
Z. PopZ. PopRP
1.0122110
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000010
K. BackhusK. BackhusRP
1.0100110
Team9.08883102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • M. Gore
    90 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      39%·95.4 mph·19% whiff
    • CU
      18%·81.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      13%·90.0 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.6 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Baumler
    43 pitches·26% CSW
    • CU
      42%·84.6 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      40%·94.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      12%·88.9 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      7%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      57%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·88.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      21%·84.5 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Winn
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • FC
      36%·88.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      27%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      18%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Martin
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • FC
      33%·90.5 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·81.9 mph·— whiff

PHI

  • J. Luzardo
    99 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      38%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      26%·96.5 mph·15% whiff
    • CH
      18%·86.0 mph·55% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.0 mph·22% whiff
  • Z. Pop
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      76%·95.8 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      16%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      8%·95.5 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Backhus
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      48%·90.1 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      48%·77.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·76.5 mph·— whiff
  • B. Keller
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      38%·96.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      31%·96.9 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      25%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·85.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

3

8

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

Mar 26TEXTEX3@PHIPHI5
Mar 28TEXTEX5@PHIPHI4
Mar 29TEXTEX8@PHIPHI3today

Season series

TEX wins series 2-1

Mar 26TEXTEX3@PHIPHI5
Mar 28TEXTEX5@PHIPHI4
Mar 29TEXTEX8@PHIPHI3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX+13543%
PHIPHI-16362%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 3rd Inning

TEXTEX
B. Nimmo

B. Nimmo

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

M. Gore

M. Gore

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

PHIPHI
B. Stott

B. Stott

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

J. Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TEX beat PHI 8-3. Nimmo's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+24pp→ 63% WP

Nimmo · homered to center (410 feet), Haggerty scored.

TEXTop 4th Inning · 5-0
+16pp→ 91% WP

McCutchen · homered to left (347 feet), Seager scored and Burger scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0023012008
PHI0000020103

Period scoring

TEX won 3 · PHI won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Nimmo 2

3
0

Inn 4

McCutchen 3

0
0

Inn 5

1
2

Inn 6

Higashioka 1

Bohm 1

2
0

Inn 7

Duran 1

0
1

Inn 8

Stott 1

0
0

Inn 9

TEX
PHI

Play-by-play · 605 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  2. B9

    ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  3. B9

    Turner grounded into double play, second to first, Moore out at second.

    · ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

    −0.7pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  7. B9

    Robert Garcia pitches to Trea Turner

    · ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  8. B9

    ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  9. B9

    Moore walked.

    ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

    +0.5pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  15. B9

    Robert Garcia pitches to Dylan Moore

    · ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  16. B9

    Moore hit for Crawford

    ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  17. B9

    ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  18. B9

    Marsh struck out looking.

    ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  25. B9

    Robert Garcia pitches to Brandon Marsh

    · ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  26. B9

    Garcia relieved Martin

    · ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  29. T9

    · ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

  30. T9

    Seager lined out to shortstop.

    · ·

    TEX 8·PHI 3

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

8

Runs

3

8

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

16

TB

3

2

HR

0

3

BB

8

10

K

10

10

LOB

19

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 8·TEX +135/PHI -163

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

PHI vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.5%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    58.6%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.1%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 26, 26sim 96
    133
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    72
    5(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 95
    224
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 95
    135
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 93
    62
    17(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 93
    68
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278