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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2PHI
TEX

TEX

0-1

3
5
PHI

PHI

1-0

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
44,610 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

PHI no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.8%

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL64.8%56.8%PHI NO-VIG %MODEL 59.6%May 4, 11 AMMay 30, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

TEX 3 · PHI 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0000000033
PHI200030005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 28, 26sim 97
    135
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 96
    138
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 94
    74
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 94
    62
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    302
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 94
    112
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+144

Close price

+144

Open no-vig

39.2%

Close no-vig

39.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

PHI vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    59.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.4%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

MLB·Thu, Mar 26·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -175

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Texas Rangers, 5–3.

PHI -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total pushed exactly on 8.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Jake Burger

Jake Burger

1B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Alec Bohm

Alec Bohm

3B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX0-1
3
5
PHI1-0
TEX0-1·PHI1-0
TEX

TEX

0-1

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-33000011
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-44000002
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
2-44120001
SPRINT24.96
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
3-44132101
SPRINT2744
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
1-22010001
SPRINT27.662
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
0-44000001
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-33000001
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
1-44011000
SPRINT26.838
S. HaggertyS. Haggerty★LF
0-22000002
J. PedersonJ. PedersonDH
0-11000000
K. HigashiokaK. HigashiokaC
1-11110000
SPRINT23.91
E. DuranE. Duran2B
0-11000001
E. CarterE. CarterCF
0-22000000
Team8-35353831111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. EovaldiN. Eovaldi★SP
4.2855072
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
1.1100020
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
1.0000000
C. BaumlerC. BaumlerRP
1.0100110
Team8.010551102
PHI

PHI

1-0

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
2-44220000
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-44112101
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-44000002
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
1-33113110
SPRINT26.632
B. StottB. Stott★2B
2-44020001
SPRINT28.688
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-44000002
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
2-44020001
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-33000003
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
2-44120000
SPRINT29.798
Team10-343451052110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
6.03000100
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
1.0100000
Z. PopZ. PopRP
1.0000100
K. BackhusK. BackhusRP
0.1333001
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
0.2100010
Team9.08331111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • N. Eovaldi
    80 pitches·30% CSW
    • FS
      40%·88.6 mph·35% whiff
    • FC
      28%·91.3 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      14%·94.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      10%·76.5 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·87.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Beeks
    28 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      57%·93.7 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      39%·87.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      4%·81.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Baumler
    26 pitches·19% CSW
    • CU
      50%·84.2 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      35%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·88.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Alexander
    9 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      44%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.9 mph·— whiff

PHI

  • C. Sanchez
    87 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      52%·94.4 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      31%·85.7 mph·54% whiff
    • SL
      17%·85.1 mph·43% whiff
  • Z. Pop
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      71%·96.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      24%·85.9 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      5%·95.6 mph·— whiff
  • K. Backhus
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      55%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      40%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·78.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Duran
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FS
      50%·97.4 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      25%·100.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      17%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·87.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      38%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·85.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

10

3

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

Mar 26TEXTEX3@PHIPHI5today
Mar 28TEXTEX5@PHIPHI4
Mar 29TEXTEX8@PHIPHI3

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Mar 26TEXTEX3@PHIPHI5today
Mar 28TEXTEX5@PHIPHI4
Mar 29TEXTEX8@PHIPHI3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX+14441%
PHIPHI-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 1st Inning

TEXTEX
J. Burger

J. Burger

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

N. Eovaldi

N. Eovaldi

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 7 K · 5 ER · 8 H

PHIPHI
A. Bohm

A. Bohm

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 3 H

How it ended

PHI beat TEX 5-3.

Win probability

PHI vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+14pp→ 80% WP

Schwarber · homered to left center (383 feet), Turner scored.

PHIBottom 5th Inning · 0-5
+13pp→ 96% WP

Bohm · homered to right (354 feet), Crawford scored and Turner scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0000000033
PHI20003000—5

Period scoring

TEX won 0 · PHI won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Schwarber 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
3

Inn 5

Bohm 3

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

3

Inn 9

Burger 2

TEX
PHI

Play-by-play · 556 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TEX 3·PHI 5

  2. T9

    Carter grounded out to first.

    · ·

    TEX 3·PHI 5

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 3·PHI 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 3·PHI 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 3·PHI 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 3·PHI 5

  7. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Evan Carter

    · ·

    TEX 3·PHI 5

  8. T9

    ·

    TEX 3·PHI 5

  9. T9

    Jansen singled to center, Higashioka scored.

    · ·

    TEX 3·PHI 5

    −1pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 3·PHI 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

  13. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Danny Jansen

    · ·

    TEX 3·PHI 5

  14. T9

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

  15. T9

    Duran struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

    +2pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

  21. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Ezequiel Duran

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

  22. T9

    Duran relieved Backhus

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

  23. T9

    Duran hit for Smith

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

  24. T9

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

  25. T9

    Jung grounded out to second, Higashioka to second, Higashioka safe at third on throwing error by first baseman Harper.

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

    +3pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 2·PHI 5

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

3

Runs

5

8

Hits

10

0

Errors

1

12

TB

18

1

HR

2

1

BB

1

11

K

10

10

LOB

13

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 8·TEX +144/PHI -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175