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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2KC
KC

KC

5-5

4
2
CLE

CLE

6-5

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
13,143 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

CLE no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

+2.0+1.0CLE SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL55.1%47.1%CLE NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 4 · CLE 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0001010204
CLE0010000102

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Mon, Apr 6·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1/VegasCLE -115

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 4–2.

KC -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Carter Jensen

Carter Jensen

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Steven Kwan

Steven Kwan

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC5-5
4
2
CLE6-5
KC5-5·CLE6-5
KC

KC

5-5

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-55020000
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-44020010
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-44110011
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000001
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
2-44221101
SPRINT27.457
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
2-44123102
SPRINT27.765
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
1-44010000
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-44000003
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-44010000
Team11-37374114228
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. WachaM. Wacha★SP
7.0311331
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0111111
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0000010
Team9.0422452
CLE

CLE

6-5

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
2-44121100
SPRINT26.530
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
0-33000011
SPRINT26.941
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-22000020
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-22000000
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
0-44000002
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
0-33000011
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
0-44000000
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
1-22010001
SPRINT26.530
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-33111100
SPRINT27.354
D. FryD. FryRF
0-11000000
D. SchneemannD. SchneemannCF
0-11000000
Team4-2929242245
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BibeeT. Bibee★SP
4.2511130
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
0.1000000
P. PalletteP. PalletteRP
2.0311031
K. AllardK. AllardRP
2.0322121
Team9.01144282

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • M. Wacha
    102 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      32%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·80.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      18%·89.5 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.5 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      7%·75.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      4%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    24 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      38%·89.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      33%·79.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      13%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·86.7 mph·— whiff
  • L. Erceg
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      57%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·89.3 mph·— whiff

CLE

  • T. Bibee
    87 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      31%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      23%·78.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      18%·84.8 mph·71% whiff
    • SI
      15%·94.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      10%·80.5 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      2%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Allard
    35 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      31%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·71.1 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Pallette
    30 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      67%·95.0 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      17%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·85.0 mph·67% whiff
  • T. Herrin
    5 pitches·20% CSW
    • CU
      80%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·93.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

4

4

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

Apr 6KCKC4@CLECLE2today
Apr 7KCKC1@CLECLE2
Apr 8KCKC2@CLECLE10

Season series

KC leads series 1-0

Apr 6KCKC4@CLECLE2today
Apr 7KCKC1@CLECLE2
Apr 8KCKC2@CLECLE10
May 4CLECLE2@KCKC6
May 5CLECLE3@KCKC5
May 6CLECLE3@KCKC1
May 7CLECLE8@KCKC5
Aug 28KCKC@CLECLEupcoming
Aug 29KCKC@CLECLEupcoming
Aug 30KCKC@CLECLEupcoming
Sep 25CLECLE@KCKCupcoming
Sep 26CLECLE@KCKCupcoming
Sep 27CLECLE@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

KCKC-10551%
CLECLE-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 8th Inning

KCKC
C. Jensen

C. Jensen

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

CLECLE
S. Kwan

S. Kwan

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

T. Bibee

T. Bibee

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

KC beat CLE 4-2. India's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CLE vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 6th Inning · 2-1
+19pp→ 60% WP

Jensen · homered to right (359 feet).

KCTop 7th Inning · 2-1
+20pp→ 71% WP

Isbel · singled to center.

KCTop 8th Inning · 4-1
+22pp→ 92% WP

India · homered to left center (380 feet), Jensen scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0001010204
CLE0010000102

Period scoring

KC won 3 · CLE won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Kwan 1

1
0

Inn 4

India 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Jensen 1

0
0

Inn 7

2
1

Inn 8

India 2

Rocchio 1

0
0

Inn 9

KC
CLE

Play-by-play · 570 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    KC 4·CLE 2

  2. B9

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  3. B9

    Kayfus flied out to left.

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  8. B9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to CJ Kayfus

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  9. B9

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  10. B9

    Naylor flied out to left.

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

    −3pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  16. B9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Bo Naylor

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  17. B9

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  18. B9

    Hoskins struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

    −3pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  24. B9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Rhys Hoskins

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  25. B9

    Erceg relieved Strahm

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  26. B9

    Massey at second base.

    KC 4·CLE 2

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    KC 4·CLE 2

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    KC 4·CLE 2

  29. T9

    · ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

  30. T9

    Pasquantino popped out to third.

    · ·

    KC 4·CLE 2

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

4

Runs

2

11

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

19

TB

11

2

HR

2

2

BB

4

8

K

5

12

LOB

10

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 7·KC -105/CLE -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 24, 26sim 98
    236
    8(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 97
    221
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 96
    246
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 96
    242
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    294
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    253
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

CLE vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.5± 0.7high
  • Rhys HoskinsCLE
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.9%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    57.7%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.5%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.8%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+