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FINAL+4NYM
PIT

PIT

0-1

7
11
NYM

NYM

1-0

Citi Field · Queens, New York
41,449 attended

Line movement

24 snapshots

NYM spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

NYM no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

+2.0+1.0NYM SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL57.2%49.2%NYM NO-VIG %MODEL 52.3%May 4, 11 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

PIT 7 · NYM 11 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT2010110027
NYM5001320011

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 16, 26sim 95
    79
    6(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    246
    6(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    3011
    24(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 94
    2411
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 93
    2110
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 93
    307
    24(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Mar 26·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1/VegasNYM -126

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 11–7.

NYM +1.5 cashed (PIT lost outright). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 11.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe

2B

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Carson Benge

Carson Benge

RF

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT0-1
7
11
NYM1-0
PIT0-1·NYM1-0
PIT

PIT

0-1

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-55110003
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
2-44223200
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-44010002
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-44000001
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
2-44221101
SPRINT26.735
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT28.483
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-44000001
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
2-44122001
SPRINT28.586
H. DavisH. Davis★C
1-44011000
Team10-373771073010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. SkenesP. Skenes★SP
0.2455210
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
2.1100130
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
1.1122320
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
0.2322210
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
1.0222002
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0000020
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000110
Team8.01111119102
NYM

NYM

1-0

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-22300030
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
2-44121010
SPRINT25.513
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-44001003
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-33111021
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
2-44122011
SPRINT2993
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-55113002
SPRINT26.735
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
2-55021001
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
1-33211122
SPRINT28.586
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
2-44221100
SPRINT25.716
Team11-34341111112910
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. PeraltaF. Peralta★SP
5.0644072
T. MyersT. MyersRP
3.0111011
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
1.0322020
Team9.010770103

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • M. Montgomery
    42 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      62%·98.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      26%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      12%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Skenes
    37 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      35%·97.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      22%·89.7 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      22%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      16%·85.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      3%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      3%·95.3 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    37 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      30%·83.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      14%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FA
      3%·70.1 mph·— whiff
  • I. Mattson
    36 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      78%·94.5 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      14%·87.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.7 mph·33% whiff
  • D. Santana
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      44%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      39%·94.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.7 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Lawrence
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • ST
      50%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      43%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soto
    8 pitches·75% CSW
    • ST
      50%·82.8 mph·75% whiff
    • SL
      38%·82.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.6 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • F. Peralta
    80 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      49%·94.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      16%·79.6 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      16%·84.1 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      11%·87.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CS
      8%·75.2 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Myers
    39 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      36%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·91.9 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      18%·85.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      13%·79.8 mph·50% whiff
  • L. Garcia
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • FS
      40%·87.0 mph·83% whiff
    • SI
      35%·94.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      25%·81.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

11

7

Runs

11

1

Errors

0

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

Mar 26PITPIT7@NYMNYM11today
Mar 28PITPIT2@NYMNYM4
Mar 29PITPIT4@NYMNYM3

Season series

NYM lead series 1-0

Mar 26PITPIT7@NYMNYM11today
Mar 28PITPIT2@NYMNYM4
Mar 29PITPIT4@NYMNYM3
Aug 7NYMNYM@PITPITupcoming
Aug 8NYMNYM@PITPITupcoming
Aug 9NYMNYM@PITPITupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+10449%
NYMNYM-12656%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 25pp · Bottom 1st Inning

PITPIT
B. Lowe

B. Lowe

2B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

Y. Ramirez

Y. Ramirez

RP

Top reliever

2.1 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

NYMNYM
C. Benge

C. Benge

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 6 H

How it ended

NYM beat PIT 11-7. Baty's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Win probability

NYM vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+17pp→ 69% WP

Lowe · homered to right (337 feet), Cruz scored.

NYMBottom 1st Inning · 2-4
+25pp→ 80% WP

Baty · tripled to center, Soto scored, Polanco scored and Robert Jr. scored.

PITTop 5th Inning · 4-6
+11pp→ 27% WP

Davis · doubled to left, Gonzales scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT2010110027
NYM50013200—11

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · NYM won 4

2
5

Inn 1

Lowe 2

Baty 3

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Lowe 1

0
1

Inn 4

Jr. 1

1
3

Inn 5

Davis 1

Soto 1

1
2

Inn 6

O'Hearn 1

Benge 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

2

Inn 9

Gonzales 2

PIT
NYM

Play-by-play · 622 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

  2. T9

    Cruz struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

  8. T9

    Luis Garcia pitches to Oneil Cruz

    · ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

  9. T9

    · ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

  10. T9

    Davis flied out to left.

    · ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

    +0.9pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

  14. T9

    Luis Garcia pitches to Henry Davis

    · ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

  15. T9

    ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

  16. T9

    Gonzales doubled to right, O'Hearn scored and Triolo scored.

    · ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

    −0.7pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 5·NYM 11

  19. T9

    Luis Garcia pitches to Nick Gonzales

    · ·

    PIT 7·NYM 11

  20. T9

    · ·

    PIT 5·NYM 11

  21. T9

    Horwitz struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PIT 5·NYM 11

    +0.8pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 5·NYM 11

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 5·NYM 11

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 5·NYM 11

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 5·NYM 11

  26. T9

    Luis Garcia pitches to Spencer Horwitz

    · ·

    PIT 5·NYM 11

  27. T9

    · ·

    PIT 5·NYM 11

  28. T9

    Triolo doubled to center, O'Hearn to third.

    · ·

    PIT 5·NYM 11

    −0.9pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 5·NYM 11

  30. T9

    Luis Garcia pitches to Jared Triolo

    · ·

    PIT 5·NYM 11

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

7

Runs

11

10

Hits

11

1

Errors

0

22

TB

20

3

HR

2

0

BB

9

10

K

10

8

LOB

19

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 7·PIT +104/NYM -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

NYM vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.5%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    53.7%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.9%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.6%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483