Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at PIT?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 28, 2026

FINAL+4STL

STL

16-13

117

PIT

16-14

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

8,758 attended

Line movement

52 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PIT no-vig %

59.0%

open 59.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.3%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
54.8%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.6%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.1%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+133

Close price

+133

Open no-vig

41.0%

Close no-vig

41.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at PIT?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

PIT vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.3± 2.8medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.5± 2.4medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium

Hits

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.4± 1.0high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.4± 1.3high
Jake MangumPIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
2.6± 3.1high
JJ WetherholtSTL
2.2± 2.8high
Brandon LowePIT
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
0.9± 1.2high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 0.6high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.4± 2.7medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.0± 1.9medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.6± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

PIT

.728

OPS

.718

▶

.744

.328

OBP

.319

▶

.335

4.63

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.01

4.26

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.17

1.34

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.31

7.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 11 · PIT 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	1	2	0	3	0	3	2	0	11
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	1	7

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.241	3	3	1	0	0	1	0
I. HerreraDH	.238	2	3	1	0	0	3	0
A. Burleson1B	.264	4	2	2	3	0	1	2
J. WalkerRF	.283	4	1	2	3	0	0	1
N. Gorman3B	.221	4	1	1	3	1	0	1
M. WinnSS	.261	5	0	2	1	0	0	2
N. ChurchLF	.250	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.250	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
V. Scott IICF	.192	5	1	1	1	1	0	2
Team		37	11	12	11	2	5	10

Player

.241

.238

.264

.283

.221

.261

.250

.250

.192

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LeahySP	5.1	9	3	3	0	7	82
G. GraceffoRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	11
J. BruihlRP	1.0	3	3	2	1	1	25
M. SvansonRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	18
Team	9.0	13	7	6	1	11	136

Player

5.1

1.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

136

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. CruzCF	.265	5	2	2	1	1	0	2
B. Lowe2B	.242	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.245	3	2	2	0	0	1	1
R. O'HearnRF	.323	4	2	2	3	1	0	1
N. Gonzales3B	.330	4	0	2	2	0	0	0
S. Horwitz1B	.256	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. GriffinSS	.226	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
J. MangumLF	.273	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
H. DavisC	.161	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Yorke3B	.215	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. OzunaDH	.160	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	7	13	7	3	1	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. AshcraftSP	4.1	6	6	6	3	7	87
H. BarcoRP	4.2	6	5	5	2	3	84
Team	9.0	12	11	11	5	10	171

Team

STL

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

PIT vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.