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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2STL
TB

TB

0-1

7
9
STL

STL

1-0

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
45,037 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

STL no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

+2.0+1.0STL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL48.9%40.9%STL NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

TB 7 · STL 9 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0000160007
STL001008009

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, Mar 26·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1/VegasTB -136

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off Tampa Bay Rays, 9–7.

STL +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 8.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Jake Fraley

Jake Fraley

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson

1B

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB0-1
7
9
STL1-0
TB0-1·STL1-0
TB

TB

0-1

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
3-55130010
SPRINT25.716
R. ViladeR. Vilade★RF
0-33000000
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
2-44122111
SPRINT25.29
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-22110041
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
3-44131000
SPRINT28.381
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
2-44022000
SPRINT2993
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
3-44131000
SPRINT26.225
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-55000000
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
1-55110001
C. SimpsonC. SimpsonLF
1-33111000
R. PalaciosR. Palacios2B
0-22000001
J. FraleyJ. FraleyRF
1-11010000
H. FeducciaH. FeducciaC
0-11000001
Team17-43437177165
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. RasmussenD. Rasmussen★SP
5.0411021
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
0.1222000
G. JaxG. JaxRP
0.2111001
Y. GomezY. GomezRP
2.0200110
Team8.01499132
STL

STL

1-0

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
1-44112101
SPRINT27.560
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
0-44001000
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
3-44232110
SPRINT25.513
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-55110001
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-44112001
SPRINT257
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-44110000
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
3-44132000
SPRINT28.586
P. PagesP. Pages★C
1-44110000
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
3-44130000
SPRINT29.798
Team14-37379149213
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LiberatoreM. Liberatore★SP
5.0711221
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
0.1333000
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
0.1122100
C. RoycroftC. RoycroftRP
0.1311000
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
0.2200000
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.1100020
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.0000310
Team9.01777651

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • D. Rasmussen
    73 pitches·23% CSW
    • FC
      44%·90.5 mph·30% whiff
    • FF
      32%·96.0 mph·8% whiff
    • SI
      16%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·88.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      4%·85.8 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Gomez
    28 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      32%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·83.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      18%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Seymour
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      24%·82.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      24%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·83.3 mph·— whiff
  • G. Jax
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      43%·89.3 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      36%·97.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      56%·87.0 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·80.8 mph·0% whiff

STL

  • M. Liberatore
    78 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      37%·94.2 mph·6% whiff
    • SL
      26%·85.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      18%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·78.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      1%·92.1 mph·— whiff
  • R. Stanek
    26 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.9 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      23%·90.6 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      19%·90.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      8%·97.3 mph·— whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      59%·98.6 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      24%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Svanson
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      44%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·86.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      19%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Roycroft
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      69%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      44%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      44%·78.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·81.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. Romero
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      44%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·94.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

17

Hits

14

7

Runs

9

2

Errors

0

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

Mar 26TBTB7@STLSTL9today
Mar 28TBTB5@STLSTL6
Mar 29TBTB11@STLSTL7

Season series

STL leads series 1-0

Mar 26TBTB7@STLSTL9today
Mar 28TBTB5@STLSTL6
Mar 29TBTB11@STLSTL7

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-13658%
STLSTL+11347%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 24pp · Bottom 6th Inning

TBTB
J. Fraley

J. Fraley

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

D. Rasmussen

D. Rasmussen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 4 H

STLSTL
A. Burleson

A. Burleson

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

M. Liberatore

M. Liberatore

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

STL beat TB 9-7. Burleson's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Win probability

STL vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 5th Inning · 1-1
+15pp→ 40% WP

Aranda · homered to right center (405 feet).

STLBottom 6th Inning · 7-5
+14pp→ 57% WP

Scott II · reached on bunt single to third, Pagés to second, Church to third.

STLBottom 6th Inning · 7-9
+24pp→ 87% WP

Burleson · homered to right (432 feet), Scott II scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0000160007
STL00100800—9

Period scoring

TB won 1 · STL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Wetherholt 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Aranda 1

6
8

Inn 6

DeLuca 2

Gorman 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TB
STL

Play-by-play · 647 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  2. T9

    Palacios struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

    +14pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  7. T9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Richie Palacios

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  8. T9

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  9. T9

    Caminero walked, Aranda to second, Díaz to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

    −6pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  16. T9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Junior Caminero

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  17. T9

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  18. T9BB

    Pedro Pagés challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Jonathan Aranda walks. Yandy Díaz to 2nd.

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

    −4pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  24. T9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Jonathan Aranda

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  25. T9

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  26. T9

    Simpson lined out to left.

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

    +5pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  29. T9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Chandler Simpson

    · ·

    TB 7·STL 9

  30. T9

    ·

    TB 7·STL 9

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

STL

Home

7

Runs

9

17

Hits

14

2

Errors

0

20

TB

22

1

HR

2

6

BB

1

5

K

3

26

LOB

14

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 8·TB -136/STL +113

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Ryan ViladeTB · RF
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

STL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Andre PallanteSTL
    2.6± 2.5low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.1%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    52.6%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.2%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.2%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.98 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 30, 26sim 96
    1811
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 94
    18
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 94
    249
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 93
    19
    28(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 93
    3011
    24(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 93
    237
    21(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs