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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5DET
STL

STL

4-4

6
11
DET

DET

4-4

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
28,708 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

DET no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.8%

-1.0-2.0DET SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL64.8%56.8%DET NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

STL 6 · DET 11 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0010500006
DET3013101211

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+144

Close price

+144

Open no-vig

39.2%

Close no-vig

39.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, Apr 4·Final/SeriesDET wins series 2-1/VegasDET -175

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off St. Louis Cardinals, 11–6.

DET -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker

RF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

5

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Matt Vierling

Matt Vierling

CF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL4-4
6
11
DET4-4
STL4-4·DET4-4
STL

STL

4-4

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
1-22110021
SPRINT27.560
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-33210010
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
1-44111011
SPRINT25.513
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-44100013
SPRINT257
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
3-44135101
SPRINT28.891
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
0-44000001
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
0-33000010
P. PagesP. Pages★C
0-11000001
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-22000001
Y. PozoY. PozoC
0-11000000
Team6-2828666169
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MayD. May★SP
3.1777242
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
1.1011110
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
2.1311111
C. RoycroftC. RoycroftRP
1.0222221
Team8.0121111684
DET

DET

4-4

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
2-22120000
SPRINT28.381
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
1-44110011
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
2-44221111
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-44113101
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-22100020
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-22100012
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
2-44123101
SPRINT26.941
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-44110001
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
2-33120011
M. VierlingM. VierlingCF
1-22113100
SPRINT28.483
Team12-3131111210468
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. FlahertyJ. Flaherty★SP
4.0355460
D. AndersonD. AndersonRP
1.0111011
B. HurterB. HurterRP
1.0000100
W. VestW. VestRP
1.0100010
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.0100000
K. JansenK. JansenRP
0.1000110
Team8.1666691

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • D. May
    79 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      35%·96.6 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      19%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·93.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.5 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      9%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Roycroft
    33 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      39%·88.8 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      36%·92.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      24%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Svanson
    30 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      47%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      37%·86.3 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      17%·90.2 mph·25% whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    27 pitches·22% CSW
    • ST
      41%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      30%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·80.9 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • J. Flaherty
    86 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      45%·91.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.5 mph·9% whiff
    • KC
      16%·78.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      5%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      1%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Vest
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      37%·95.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      37%·86.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      16%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Holton
    19 pitches·0% CSW
    • FC
      42%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      32%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Anderson
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      47%·95.0 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      29%·79.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      24%·89.1 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Hurter
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      69%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·82.8 mph·— whiff
  • K. Jansen
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FC
      100%·91.4 mph·67% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

12

6

Runs

11

1

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 2-1

Apr 3STLSTL0@DETDET4
Apr 4STLSTL6@DETDET11today
Apr 5STLSTL5@DETDET3

Season series

DET leads series 2-0

Apr 3STLSTL0@DETDET4
Apr 4STLSTL6@DETDET11today
Apr 5STLSTL5@DETDET3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL+14441%
DETDET-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 16pp · Top 5th Inning

STLSTL
J. Walker

J. Walker

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

D. May

D. May

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 4 K · 7 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

DETDET
M. Vierling

M. Vierling

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

How it ended

DET beat STL 11-6.

Win probability

DET vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+12pp→ 86% WP

Carpenter · homered to left (359 feet), Torres scored.

STLTop 5th Inning · 6-7
+16pp→ 29% WP

Walker · homered to left center (459 feet), Herrera scored, Burleson scored and Gorman scored.

DETBottom 5th Inning · 6-8
+10pp→ 83% WP

McKinstry · singled to right, Greene scored, McKinstry to second, Dingler to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0010500006
DET30131012—11

Period scoring

STL won 1 · DET won 4

0
3

Inn 1

Carpenter 2

0
0

Inn 2

1
1

Inn 3

Walker 1

Carpenter 1

0
3

Inn 4

McKinstry 2

5
1

Inn 5

Walker 4

McKinstry 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Torres 1

0
2

Inn 8

Vierling 2

0

Inn 9

STL
DET

Play-by-play · 630 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  2. T9

    Gorman struck out swinging.

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  7. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Nolan Gorman

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  8. T9

    ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  9. T9

    Burleson walked.

    ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  14. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Alec Burleson

    ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  15. T9

    Jansen relieved Holton

    ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  16. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    STL 6·DET 11

  17. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    STL 6·DET 11

  18. B8

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  19. B8

    Carpenter struck out swinging.

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

    +0.5pp

  20. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  21. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  22. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  23. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  24. B8

    Chris Roycroft pitches to Kerry Carpenter

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  25. B8

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  26. B8

    Torres walked, McGonigle to second.

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  27. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  28. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    STL 6·DET 11

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

DET

Home

6

Runs

11

6

Hits

12

1

Errors

0

11

TB

26

1

HR

4

6

BB

6

9

K

8

19

LOB

9

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 7.5·STL +144/DET -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    3011
    24(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 95
    237
    21(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 93
    201
    17(H)15
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 93
    2110
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 93
    79
    6(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 92
    307
    24(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

DET vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    4.7± 3.0low

Hits

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    0.6± 1.2low

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.9%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    55.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278