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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1DET
KC

KC

7-12

9
10
DET

DET

10-9

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
15,034 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

DET no-vig %

49.0%

open 49.0%

+2.0+1.0DET SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL53.0%45.0%DET NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

KC 9 · DET 10 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0001016019
DET01014010310

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Apr 16·Final/SeriesDET wins series 3-0/VegasKC -114

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Kansas City Royals, 10–9. It came down to the final possession.

DET +1.5 cashed (KC lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Lane Thomas

Lane Thomas

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Riley Greene

Riley Greene

LF

1.550OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC7-12
9
10
DET10-9
KC7-12·DET10-9
KC

KC

7-12

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-55111001
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
3-55331002
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-55111101
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
2-44124102
SPRINT241
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
2-55021000
SPRINT27.457
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
1-44110001
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
1-44111000
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
1-22010001
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-33000000
L. ThomasL. ThomasCF
1-11110010
Team13-38389139218
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. BubicK. Bubic★SP
4.2655330
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
0.1111011
A. LangeA. LangeRP
1.0200020
N. MearsN. MearsRP
1.0211000
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
1.0000010
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
0.2333110
Team8.2141010481
DET

DET

10-9

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
2-44221010
SPRINT25.18
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
1-44210010
SPRINT28.278
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
1-33111001
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
2-55122100
SPRINT27.765
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
3-44232011
SPRINT2744
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
2-33121000
SPRINT28.483
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
2-44021002
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-44000001
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-33100012
K. CarpenterK. CarpenterRF
0-11001001
C. KeithC. Keith3B
1-22011000
Team14-3737101410148
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. MonteroK. Montero★SP
6.0744050
D. AndersonD. AndersonRP
0.1233100
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
0.1111001
E. De JesusE. De JesusRP
1.0200010
C. SeaboldC. SeaboldRP
1.1111021
Team9.01399182

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • K. Bubic
    82 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      46%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·85.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • CH
      33%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·96.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      21%·83.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Lange
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      45%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·87.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      15%·90.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      5%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Mears
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·84.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      10%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·81.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      25%·85.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      25%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·91.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      13%·93.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      13%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • CH
      71%·85.4 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      29%·81.0 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • K. Montero
    83 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      31%·94.5 mph·7% whiff
    • SI
      28%·94.6 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      18%·87.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.8 mph·60% whiff
    • KC
      8%·79.9 mph·50% whiff
  • E. De Jesus
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      32%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      26%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Seabold
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      47%·94.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      33%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·83.7 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Holton
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FC
      31%·87.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      23%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·81.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      15%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Anderson
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      42%·88.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      42%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·85.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

14

9

Runs

10

0

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 3-0

Apr 14KCKC1@DETDET2
Apr 15KCKC1@DETDET2
Apr 16KCKC9@DETDET10today

Season series

DET leads series 3-0

Apr 14KCKC1@DETDET2
Apr 15KCKC1@DETDET2
Apr 16KCKC9@DETDET10today
May 8DETDET3@KCKC4
May 9DETDET1@KCKC5
May 10DETDET6@KCKC3
Jul 23KCKC@DETDETupcoming
Jul 24KCKC@DETDETupcoming
Jul 25KCKC@DETDETupcoming
Jul 26KCKC@DETDETupcoming
Aug 22DETDET@KCKCupcoming
Aug 22DETDET@KCKCupcoming
Aug 23DETDET@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

KCKC-11453%
DETDET-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 52pp · Bottom 9th Inning

KCKC
L. Thomas

L. Thomas

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

K. Bubic

K. Bubic

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

DETDET
R. Greene

R. Greene

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 2 R · 1.550 OPS

K. Montero

K. Montero

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 7 H

How it ended

DET beat KC 10-9. Greene's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (52pp).

Win probability

DET vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 7th Inning · 8-6
+51pp→ 75% WP

Perez · homered to left (379 feet), Garcia scored and Witt Jr. scored.

DETBottom 7th Inning · 8-6
+16pp→ 41% WP

McGonigle · tripled to center.

DETBottom 9th Inning · 9-9
+52pp→ 61% WP

Greene · doubled to right, McGonigle scored and Torres scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0001016019
DET01014010310

Period scoring

KC won 2 · DET won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Torkelson 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
1

Inn 4

Jensen 1

Vierling 1

0
4

Inn 5

Dingler 2

1
0

Inn 6

Perez 1

6
1

Inn 7

Perez 3

Carpenter 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
3

Inn 9

Pasquantino 1

Greene 2

KC
DET

Play-by-play · 611 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    KC 9·DET 10

  2. B9

    Keith singled to right, Greene scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 10

    +39pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 10

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 9

  5. B9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Colt Keith

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 10

  6. B9

    ·

    KC 9·DET 9

  7. B9

    Greene doubled to right, McGonigle scored and Torres scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 9

    +52pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 9

  9. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  15. B9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Riley Greene

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 9

  16. B9

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  17. B9

    Dingler lined out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

    −12pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  22. B9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Dillon Dingler

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  23. B9

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  24. B9

    Carpenter struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

    −14pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  28. B9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Kerry Carpenter

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  29. B9

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

  30. B9

    McGonigle walked, Torres to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 9·DET 7

    +14pp

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

DET

Home

9

Runs

10

13

Hits

14

0

Errors

0

22

TB

24

2

HR

1

1

BB

4

8

K

8

14

LOB

17

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 8.5·KC -114/DET -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

49.0%

Close no-vig

49.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

DET vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Riley GreeneDET
    0.9± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.5± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    0.5± 0.8high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.3%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    54.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.2%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 28, 26sim 97
    2411
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 95
    237
    21(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 93
    1517
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 93
    246
    6(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 92
    1212
    4(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 91
    201
    17(H)15
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278