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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TOR
SEA

SEA

90-72

3
4
TOR

TOR

94-68

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
44,770 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

SEA 3 · TOR 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA1010100003
TOR100000304

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 20, 25sim 97
    122
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 13, 25sim 96
    123
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 1, 25sim 95
    23
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 8, 25sim 94
    145
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 9, 25sim 94
    228
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 18, 25sim 94
    81
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Oct 20·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Seattle Mariners, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Cal Raleigh

Cal Raleigh

C

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Andres Gimenez

Andres Gimenez

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
SEA90-72
3
4
TOR94-68
SEA90-72·TOR94-68
SEA

SEA

90-72

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-55221101
SPRINT28.688
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-33111111
SPRINT25.716
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-33011010
SPRINT23.81
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT25.310
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT26.941
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44010002
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-33010000
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
0-44000003
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
0-11000020
D. CanzoneD. CanzoneDH
0-11000001
Team8-3232383249
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
4.0411130
B. WooB. WooSP
2.1222220
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
0.2211011
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0200000
Team8.01044361
TOR

TOR

94-68

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-33213111
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.148
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-44010001
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
1-44010002
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
2-44021001
SPRINT26.838
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44010000
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
1-33110010
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT27.560
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-11010010
Team10-31314104136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BieberS. Bieber★SP
3.2722151
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.1111001
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0000000
K. GausmanK. GausmanSP
1.0000300
C. BassittC. BassittSP
1.0000010
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0000030
Team9.0833492

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

10

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Playoff series

TOR wins series 4-3

Oct 13SEASEA3@TORTOR1
Oct 13SEASEA10@TORTOR3
Oct 16TORTOR13@SEASEA4
Oct 17TORTOR8@SEASEA2
Oct 17TORTOR2@SEASEA6
Oct 20SEASEA2@TORTOR6
Oct 21SEASEA3@TORTOR4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 39pp · Bottom 7th Inning

SEASEA
C. Raleigh

C. Raleigh

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

G. Kirby

G. Kirby

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
A. Gimenez

A. Gimenez

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Bieber

S. Bieber

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TOR beat SEA 4-3. Springer's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (39pp).

Win probability

TOR vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEATop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+12pp→ 49% WP

Rodr · íguez homered to left center (423 feet).

SEATop 5th Inning · 3-1
+13pp→ 70% WP

Raleigh · homered to right (381 feet).

TORBottom 7th Inning · 3-4
+39pp→ 79% WP

Springer · homered to left center (381 feet), Barger scored and Kiner-Falefa scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA1010100003
TOR10000030—4

Period scoring

SEA won 2 · TOR won 1

1
1

Inn 1

Naylor 1

Varsho 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Rodr 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Raleigh 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

Springer 3

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SEA
TOR

Play-by-play · 533 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  2. T9

    Rodríguez struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  9. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Julio Rodriguez

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  10. T9

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  11. T9

    Canzone struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

    +4pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  17. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Dominic Canzone

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  18. T9

    Canzone hit for Robles

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  19. T9

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  20. T9

    Rivas struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

    +7pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  27. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Leo Rivas

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  28. T9

    Hoffman relieved Bassitt

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  29. T9

    Straw in left field.

    SEA 3·TOR 4

  30. T9

    Lukes in right field.

    SEA 3·TOR 4

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

3

Runs

4

8

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

16

TB

13

2

HR

1

4

BB

3

9

K

6

13

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

TOR vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.6± 2.4high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Luke RaleySEA
    1.8± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    2.4± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    56.5%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.1%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.0%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.