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FINAL+1NYY
BOS

BOS

89-73

3
4
NYY

NYY

94-68

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
47,993 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

BOS 3 · NYY 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0020010003
NYY200010014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Oct 1·Final/SeriesNYY win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Boston Red Sox, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Masataka Yoshida

Masataka Yoshida

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ben Rice

Ben Rice

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS89-73
3
4
NYY94-68
BOS89-73·NYY94-68
BOS

BOS

89-73

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
0-33000002
T. StoryT. Story★SS
2-44123101
SPRINT27.969
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-33010010
SPRINT25.818
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
0-33000000
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-44000002
N. EatonN. Eaton★OF
1-22010011
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-33110001
SPRINT29.294
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-33100011
N. SogardN. Sogard★3B
0-22000000
M. YoshidaM. YoshidaDH
1-11010000
SPRINT26.123
N. LoweN. LoweDH
0-11000000
W. AbreuW. AbreuRF
0-11000001
Team6-3030363139
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BelloB. Bello★SP
2.1422101
J. WilsonJ. WilsonRP
1.2000000
J. SlatenJ. SlatenRP
0.2111100
S. MatzS. MatzSP
1.0200010
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
0.1000010
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.2311230
P. TolleP. TolleSP
0.1000000
Team8.01044451
NYY

NYY

94-68

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-44110010
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
2-44021001
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT27.560
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
2-44122101
SPRINT26.941
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
0-44000000
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-33100011
A. WellsA. Wells★C
2-33021010
SPRINT25.18
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-44010001
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-33010011
Team10-33334104145
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. RodonC. Rodon★SP
6.0433361
F. CruzF. CruzRP
1.0100000
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0100010
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0000020
Team9.0633391

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • G. Whitlock
    47 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      45%·95.4 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      32%·83.8 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      23%·85.7 mph·25% whiff
  • B. Bello
    28 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      43%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·94.0 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      11%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Matz
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.8 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      42%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      8%·81.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. Wilson
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      39%·88.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      30%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      26%·93.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      4%·86.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Slaten
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      28%·86.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      17%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      11%·92.7 mph·— whiff
  • P. Tolle
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      100%·97.0 mph·50% whiff
  • Z. Kelly
    6 pitches·50% CSW
    • FC
      67%·91.4 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.4 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      17%·81.5 mph·— whiff

NYY

  • C. Rodon
    91 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      37%·94.4 mph·6% whiff
    • CH
      26%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.7 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      11%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Williams
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • CH
      53%·85.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      47%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      56%·97.6 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      38%·78.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      6%·94.6 mph·— whiff
  • F. Cruz
    14 pitches·7% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      36%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·82.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

10

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

Sep 30BOSBOS3@NYYNYY1
Oct 1BOSBOS3@NYYNYY4today
Oct 3BOSBOS0@NYYNYY4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 30pp · Bottom 8th Inning

BOSBOS
M. Yoshida

M. Yoshida

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

G. Whitlock

G. Whitlock

RP

Top reliever

1.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

NYYNYY
B. Rice

B. Rice

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

C. Rodon

C. Rodon

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

NYY beat BOS 4-3. Wells's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Win probability

NYY vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+17pp→ 78% WP

Rice · homered to right (364 feet), Bellinger scored.

NYYTop 8th Inning · 3-3
+17pp→ 61% WP

Lowe · grounded into double play, pitcher to shortstop to first, Bregman out at second.

NYYBottom 8th Inning · 3-4
+30pp→ 86% WP

Wells · singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0020010003
NYY20001001—4

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · NYY won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Rice 2

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Story 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Judge 1

1
0

Inn 6

Story 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Wells 1

0

Inn 9

BOS
NYY

Play-by-play · 564 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  2. T9

    Rafaela flied out to right.

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  6. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  7. T9

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  8. T9

    Duran struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

    +5pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  16. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Jarren Duran

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  17. T9

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  18. T9

    Abreu struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

    +7pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  25. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Wilyer Abreu

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  26. T9

    Bednar relieved Williams

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  27. T9

    Abreu hit for Eaton

    ·

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  28. T9

    Goldschmidt at first base.

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BOS 3·NYY 4

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BOS 3·NYY 4

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

3

Runs

4

6

Hits

10

0

Errors

1

9

TB

14

1

HR

1

3

BB

4

9

K

5

16

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.8± 3.3low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.3± 2.7low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.0%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    54.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.5%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.5%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 8, 25sim 97
    145
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 97
    195
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 20, 25sim 96
    122
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 9, 25sim 95
    228
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 21, 25sim 95
    123
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 6, 25sim 95
    194
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs