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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6PHI
PHI

PHI

96-66

8
2
LAD

LAD

93-69

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
53,689 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 8 · LAD 2 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0003000508
LAD0010000012

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Oct 8·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber

DH

2.600OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Tommy Edman

Tommy Edman

2B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI96-66
8
2
LAD93-69
PHI96-66·LAD93-69
PHI

PHI

96-66

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
3-55132000
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
2-44223211
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
2-44120010
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
2-33120020
SPRINT26.632
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-44001001
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
2-55121101
SPRINT28.381
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
0-33100020
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
0-55100001
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-33010000
Team12-36368127364
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. NolaA. Nola★SP
2.0100030
R. SuarezR. SuarezSP
5.0511141
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0000000
T. WalkerT. WalkerSP
0.2211110
T. BanksT. BanksRP
0.1000000
Team9.0822281
LAD

LAD

93-69

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-55000001
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
2-44020000
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-44000001
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-33000002
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-44010002
SPRINT2744
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
1-22110020
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
2-44020000
SPRINT27.354
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-22000001
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
2-44122100
M. RojasM. RojasSS
0-11000000
D. RushingD. RushingC
0-11000001
Team8-3434282128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
4.0633121
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.0000120
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
1.0000100
C. KershawC. KershawSP
2.0654302
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0000000
Team9.01287643

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • O. Kerkering
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.8 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      38%·88.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      13%·96.7 mph·— whiff

LAD

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

8

8

Runs

2

0

Errors

2

Playoff series

LAD lead series 2-1

Oct 4LADLAD5@PHIPHI3
Oct 6LADLAD4@PHIPHI3
Oct 9PHIPHI8@LADLAD2today
Oct 9PHIPHI1@LADLAD2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 7th Inning

PHIPHI
K. Schwarber

K. Schwarber

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.600 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Top reliever

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

LADLAD
T. Edman

T. Edman

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PHI beat LAD 8-2. Turner's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 4th Inning · 2-1
+18pp→ 55% WP

Bohm · singled to center, Harper scored on throwing error by center fielder Pages, Bohm to third.

PHITop 7th Inning · 3-1
+18pp→ 82% WP

Turner · singled to center.

PHITop 8th Inning · 4-1
+11pp→ 92% WP

Realmuto · homered to left center (407 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0003000508
LAD0010000012

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · LAD won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Edman 1

3
0

Inn 4

Schwarber 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

5
0

Inn 8

Turner 2

0
1

Inn 9

Edman 1

PHI
LAD

Play-by-play · 585 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PHI 8·LAD 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 2

  3. B9

    Ohtani flied out to right.

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 2

  5. B9

    Tanner Banks pitches to Shohei Ohtani

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 2

  6. B9

    Banks relieved Walker

    ·

    PHI 8·LAD 2

  7. B9

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 2

  8. B9

    Edman singled to left, E. Hernández scored, Muncy to third.

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  11. B9

    Taijuan Walker pitches to Tommy Edman

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 2

  12. B9

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  13. B9

    Rushing struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  18. B9

    Taijuan Walker pitches to Dalton Rushing

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  19. B9

    Rushing hit for Dean

    ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  20. B9

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  21. B9

    Muncy singled to right, E. Hernández to third.

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  27. B9

    Taijuan Walker pitches to Max Muncy

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  28. B9

    ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  29. B9

    E. Hernández walked.

    · ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    PHI 8·LAD 1

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

8

Runs

2

12

Hits

8

0

Errors

2

23

TB

13

3

HR

1

6

BB

2

4

K

8

18

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 20, 25sim 95
    122
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 1, 25sim 95
    23
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 13, 25sim 95
    1210
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 94
    195
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 8, 25sim 94
    145
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 21, 25sim 94
    123
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

LAD vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.2± 2.9low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Alex CallLAD
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.6%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    55.5%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.8%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.2%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.