• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+4TOR
SEA

SEA

90-72

2
6
TOR

TOR

94-68

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
44,764 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

SEA 2 · TOR 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0000020002
TOR022010106

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Oct 19·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Seattle Mariners, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Addison Barger

Addison Barger

RF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA90-72
2
6
TOR94-68
SEA90-72·TOR94-68
SEA

SEA

90-72

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-33000010
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-44000003
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-44000001
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
2-44121101
SPRINT23.81
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
2-44120002
SPRINT26.941
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-33011012
SPRINT25.818
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-22000021
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT25.920
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
1-33010002
SPRINT27.560
Team7-31312721413
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
4.0754132
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
2.0100010
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0111210
C. VargasC. VargasRP
1.0200010
Team8.01165362
TOR

TOR

94-68

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-44000011
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
2-55020001
SPRINT27.148
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-44221100
SPRINT26.123
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
1-55010001
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT26.838
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
2-33220010
SPRINT27.354
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
2-33123110
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
1-44011000
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-44000002
Team11-36366115236
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. YesavageT. Yesavage★SP
5.2622371
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.1100020
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
2.0000140
Team9.07224131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • E. Bazardo
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      75%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·83.5 mph·50% whiff

TOR

  • J. Hoffman
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      41%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      35%·94.9 mph·60% whiff
    • FS
      24%·88.3 mph·— whiff
  • L. Varland
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • KC
      38%·89.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      31%·93.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      15%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·91.3 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

11

2

Runs

6

3

Errors

0

Playoff series

Series tied 3-3

Oct 13SEASEA3@TORTOR1
Oct 13SEASEA10@TORTOR3
Oct 16TORTOR13@SEASEA4
Oct 17TORTOR8@SEASEA2
Oct 17TORTOR2@SEASEA6
Oct 20SEASEA2@TORTOR6today
Oct 21SEASEA3@TORTOR4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

SEASEA
J. Naylor

J. Naylor

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
A. Barger

A. Barger

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

T. Yesavage

T. Yesavage

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

TOR beat SEA 6-2.

Win probability

TOR vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 72% WP

Barger · singled to right, Varsho scored, Clement to third.

TORBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+16pp→ 72% WP

Kirk · grounded out to third.

TORBottom 3rd Inning · 0-4
+14pp→ 87% WP

Barger · homered to right center (403 feet), Clement scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0000020002
TOR02201010—6

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · TOR won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Barger 1

0
2

Inn 3

Barger 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Jr. 1

2
0

Inn 6

Naylor 1

0
1

Inn 7

Varsho 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SEA
TOR

Play-by-play · 540 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  2. T9

    Canzone popped out to third.

    · ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  5. T9

    Crawford to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  6. T9

    Crawford to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  9. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Dominic Canzone

    · ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  10. T9

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  11. T9

    Crawford walked.

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  17. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to J.P. Crawford

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  18. T9

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  19. T9

    Suárez struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  27. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Eugenio Suarez

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  28. T9

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

  29. T9

    Arozarena struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

    +0.8pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 2·TOR 6

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

2

Runs

6

7

Hits

11

3

Errors

0

10

TB

20

1

HR

2

4

BB

3

13

K

6

11

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 21, 25sim 97
    123
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 96
    195
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 1, 25sim 96
    23
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 9, 25sim 95
    228
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 94
    195
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 13, 25sim 94
    1210
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

TOR vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.6± 2.4high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Luke RaleySEA
    1.8± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    2.4± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.8%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    55.3%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.1%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.8%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.