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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4LAD
MIL

MIL

97-65

1
5
LAD

LAD

93-69

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
52,883 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

MIL 1 · LAD 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0000000101
LAD300100105

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 16, 25sim 96
    81
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 21, 25sim 94
    123
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 1, 25sim 94
    23
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 3, 25sim 94
    20
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 30, 25sim 93
    23
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 13, 25sim 93
    123
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Oct 17·Final/Seriestied 2-2

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Milwaukee Brewers, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jackson Chourio

Jackson Chourio

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

SP

5.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

3

R

3

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
MIL97-65
1
5
LAD93-69
MIL97-65·LAD93-69
MIL

MIL

97-65

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-33001011
SPRINT28.586
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
2-44020001
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-33000011
SPRINT27.148
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
2-44020002
SPRINT24.96
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
0-22000001
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-44000000
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT28.175
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
0-11000011
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-11000001
A. VaughnA. Vaughn1B
0-22000000
I. CollinsI. CollinsLF
0-22000002
Team5-30301510411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. QuintanaJ. Quintana★SP
2.0633111
C. PatrickC. PatrickRP
4.0111051
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0111021
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
1.0100120
Team8.09552103
LAD

LAD

93-69

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
3-33333310
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-44110000
W. SmithW. Smith★C
2-44120001
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-44010002
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
1-44011002
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-44011002
SPRINT28.381
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-33000010
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
0-44000001
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-33000002
Team9-33335953210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
6.02003100
SPRINT2744
A. VesiaA. Vesia★RP
1.0000000
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.1111110
A. BandaA. BandaRP
0.2100000
R. SasakiR. SasakiSP
1.0100000
Team9.05114110

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

1

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Playoff series

LAD win series 4-0

Oct 14LADLAD2@MILMIL1
Oct 15LADLAD5@MILMIL1
Oct 16MILMIL1@LADLAD3
Oct 18MILMIL1@LADLAD5today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 1st Inning

MILMIL
J. Chourio

J. Chourio

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Patrick

C. Patrick

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 1 H

LADLAD
S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Batter of the game3-HR game

3-for-3 · 3 HR · 5.000 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

LAD beat MIL 5-1.

Win probability

LAD vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 67% WP

Ohtani · homered to right (446 feet).

LADBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+7pp→ 80% WP

Edman · singled to center, Betts scored, Smith to third.

MILTop 4th Inning · 0-3
+6pp→ 23% WP

Chourio · hit a ground rule double.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0000000101
LAD30010010—5

Period scoring

MIL won 1 · LAD won 3

0
3

Inn 1

Ohtani 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Ohtani 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Ohtani 1

1
0

Inn 8

Turang 1

0

Inn 9

MIL
LAD

Play-by-play · 523 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  2. T9

    Durbin flied out to right.

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  4. T9

    Roki Sasaki pitches to Caleb Durbin

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  5. T9

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  6. T9

    Frelick grounded into fielder's choice to second, Contreras out at second.

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

    +0.9pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  9. T9

    Roki Sasaki pitches to Sal Frelick

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  10. T9

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  11. T9

    Vaughn lined out to right.

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

    +2pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  14. T9

    Roki Sasaki pitches to Andrew Vaughn

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  15. T9

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  16. T9

    Contreras singled to center.

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

    −2pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  21. T9

    Roki Sasaki pitches to William Contreras

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  22. T9

    Sasaki relieved Banda

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  23. T9

    Pages in right field.

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  24. T9

    Dean in center field.

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  27. B8

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  28. B8

    E. Hernández flied out to center.

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

  30. B8

    Jared Koenig pitches to Enrique Hernandez

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 5

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

1

Runs

5

5

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

7

TB

18

0

HR

3

4

BB

2

11

K

10

20

LOB

13

Player projections

LAD vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    56.9%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.1%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.6%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175