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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TOR
TOR

TOR

94-68

5
2
NYY

NYY

94-68

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
47,823 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 5 · NYY 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR1000102105
NYY0010000012

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 1, 25sim 97
    23
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 6, 25sim 97
    194
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 97
    195
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 15, 25sim 95
    195
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 14, 25sim 95
    192
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 9, 25sim 94
    228
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Oct 8·Final/SeriesNYY win series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into New York Yankees and beat them, 5–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Myles Straw

Myles Straw

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ryan McMahon

Ryan McMahon

3B

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR94-68
5
2
NYY94-68
TOR94-68·NYY94-68
TOR

TOR

94-68

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-44111002
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
2-55022000
SPRINT27.148
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-44011011
SPRINT26.123
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
3-55030001
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
1-55110001
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-44000000
A. SantanderA. Santander★RF
0-33000001
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
2-33220000
SPRINT27.354
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-44110000
M. StrawM. StrawRF
1-11011000
Team12-38385125016
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. VarlandL. Varland★RP
1.1100020
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
1.0111031
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.2000100
E. LauerE. LauerSP
1.2000120
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
0.1000100
B. LittleB. LittleRP
1.0100110
B. FisherB. FisherRP
0.2100110
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.1211110
Team9.06226101
NYY

NYY

94-68

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-55000002
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
2-44021011
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-55000002
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-22010020
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-33000011
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
0-11000010
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-44000001
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-33000003
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-22111100
SPRINT2622
J. DominguezJ. DominguezLF
1-11110000
SPRINT26.838
A. RosarioA. Rosario3B
1-22010000
SPRINT28.278
Team6-32322621610
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SchlittlerC. Schlittler★SP
6.1842020
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
0.2100110
C. DovalC. DovalRP
0.1211000
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.2100030
Team9.01253160

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • M. Fluharty
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • ST
      67%·82.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      33%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • FS
      46%·89.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      35%·86.6 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.9 mph·25% whiff
  • L. Varland
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      40%·99.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      20%·94.7 mph·— whiff
    • KC
      20%·89.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      15%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.3 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      30%·85.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      15%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·98.1 mph·— whiff
  • B. Little
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • FC
      72%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      28%·87.0 mph·100% whiff
  • E. Lauer
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      41%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      35%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      6%·74.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • CU
      65%·83.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      24%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·94.5 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      6%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • SL
      86%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      14%·91.7 mph·0% whiff

NYY

  • C. Schlittler
    88 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      39%·98.0 mph·10% whiff
    • FC
      30%·94.4 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      19%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·82.3 mph·17% whiff
  • D. Williams
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • CH
      70%·84.2 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      30%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • CU
      50%·78.1 mph·60% whiff
    • FS
      36%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·96.2 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Doval
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      50%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·88.6 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

6

5

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Playoff series

TOR wins series 3-1

Oct 4NYYNYY1@TORTOR10
Oct 5NYYNYY7@TORTOR13
Oct 8TORTOR6@NYYNYY9
Oct 8TORTOR5@NYYNYY2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 7th Inning

TORTOR
M. Straw

M. Straw

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

E. Lauer

E. Lauer

SP

Top reliever

1.2 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 1 BB

NYYNYY
R. McMahon

R. McMahon

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 8 H

How it ended

TOR beat NYY 5-2. Lukes's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYY vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 3rd Inning · 1-1
+12pp→ 61% WP

McMahon · homered to right (357 feet).

TORTop 5th Inning · 1-1
+12pp→ 63% WP

Gim · énez singled to center, Clement to third.

TORTop 7th Inning · 4-1
+22pp→ 88% WP

Lukes · singled to center, Clement scored and Giménez scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR1000102105
NYY0010000012

Period scoring

TOR won 4 · NYY won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

McMahon 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Springer 1

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Lukes 2

1
0

Inn 8

Straw 1

0
1

Inn 9

Judge 1

TOR
NYY

Play-by-play · 596 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 5·NYY 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 2

  3. B9

    Bellinger struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 2

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 2

  8. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Cody Bellinger

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 2

  9. B9

    ·

    TOR 5·NYY 2

  10. B9

    Judge singled to left, Domínguez scored.

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 2

    +1pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

  15. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Aaron Judge

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 2

  16. B9

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

  17. B9

    Grisham grounded out to first, Domínguez to third.

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

    −2pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

  22. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Trent Grisham

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

  23. B9

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

  24. B9

    Rosario flied out to left.

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

    −2pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

  28. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Amed Rosario

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

  29. B9

    ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

  30. B9

    Domínguez doubled to center.

    · ·

    TOR 5·NYY 1

    +3pp

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

5

Runs

2

12

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

16

TB

10

0

HR

1

1

BB

6

6

K

10

25

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.8± 3.3low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    0.7± 0.8high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.3± 2.7low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.7%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    54.1%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.3%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.4%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.44 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.