• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2LAD
LAD

LAD

93-69

5
3
PHI

PHI

96-66

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
45,777 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 5 · PHI 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0000023005
PHI0300000003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Oct 4·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 5–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Alex Call

Alex Call

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
J.T. Realmuto

J.T. Realmuto

C

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD93-69
5
3
PHI96-66
LAD93-69·PHI96-66
LAD

LAD

93-69

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-44000014
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-55000000
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-44113103
SPRINT28.381
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-33110010
SPRINT24.74
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
1-44110001
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
1-44012000
A. CallA. Call★LF
1-11010010
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44110002
SPRINT28.175
B. RortvedtB. Rortvedt★C
0-00000000
M. MuncyM. Muncy3B
0-22000001
W. SmithW. SmithC
0-22100002
Team6-33335651313
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
6.0333190
SPRINT2744
T. GlasnowT. Glasnow★SP
1.2200220
R. SasakiR. Sasaki★SP
1.0100010
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
0.1000000
Team9.06333120
PHI

PHI

96-66

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-33000011
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-44000003
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-22100020
SPRINT26.632
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-33110002
SPRINT28.175
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
2-44122001
SPRINT28.381
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
1-44010001
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-00001000
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-44010002
E. SosaE. Sosa2B
0-11000000
N. CastellanosN. CastellanosRF
0-22000000
Team6-31313630312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
5.2422280
D. RobertsonD. RobertsonRP
0.1122000
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0111011
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0000020
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0000120
Team9.06553131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • S. Ohtani
    89 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      40%·98.7 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      18%·78.6 mph·86% whiff
    • SL
      18%·88.6 mph·30% whiff
    • FS
      10%·88.9 mph·80% whiff
    • ST
      10%·87.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      2%·96.6 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      1%·94.9 mph·— whiff
  • T. Glasnow
    34 pitches·32% CSW
    • CU
      29%·82.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      26%·90.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      24%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Sasaki
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      64%·100.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FO
      36%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Vesia
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      100%·91.7 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • C. Sanchez
    94 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      44%·95.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      40%·86.7 mph·63% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.4 mph·40% whiff
  • J. Duran
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      50%·100.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      44%·98.1 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      6%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Robertson
    15 pitches·0% CSW
    • FC
      73%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      27%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      40%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·88.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    10 pitches·60% CSW
    • FF
      50%·99.5 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      50%·89.4 mph·67% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

5

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Playoff series

LAD lead series 1-0

Oct 4LADLAD5@PHIPHI3today
Oct 6LADLAD4@PHIPHI3
Oct 9PHIPHI8@LADLAD2
Oct 9PHIPHI1@LADLAD2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 47pp · Top 7th Inning

LADLAD
A. Call

A. Call

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 9 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

PHIPHI
J.T. Realmuto

J.T. Realmuto

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat PHI 5-3. T. Hern's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (47pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 6th Inning · 2-3
+17pp→ 28% WP

E. Hern · ández doubled to left, Edman scored and Freeman scored.

LADTop 7th Inning · 5-3
+47pp→ 78% WP

T. Hern · ández homered to right center (394 feet), Pages scored and Smith scored.

LADBottom 8th Inning · 5-3
+16pp→ 93% WP

Sosa · flied out to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0000023005
PHI0300000003

Period scoring

LAD won 2 · PHI won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
3

Inn 2

Realmuto 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Hern 2

3
0

Inn 7

Hern 3

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

LAD
PHI

Play-by-play · 566 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  3. B9

    Stott fouled out to third.

    · ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  7. B9

    Roki Sasaki pitches to Bryson Stott

    · ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  8. B9

    · ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  9. B9

    Castellanos grounded out to second, Kepler to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

    −7pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  11. B9

    Roki Sasaki pitches to Nick Castellanos

    · ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  12. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  13. B9

    Kepler doubled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

    +6pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  17. B9

    Roki Sasaki pitches to Max Kepler

    ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  18. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  19. B9

    Realmuto struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

    −5pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  24. B9

    Roki Sasaki pitches to J.T. Realmuto

    ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  25. B9

    Pages in right field.

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  26. B9

    Dean in center field.

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  29. T9

    · ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

  30. T9

    Betts grounded out to third.

    · ·

    LAD 5·PHI 3

    +1pp

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

5

Runs

3

6

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

10

TB

9

1

HR

0

3

BB

3

13

K

12

16

LOB

13

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 1, 25sim 97
    23
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 8, 25sim 97
    145
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 6, 25sim 96
    194
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 20, 25sim 96
    122
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 9, 25sim 94
    221
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 9, 25sim 94
    228
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PHI vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.2± 2.9low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Alex CallLAD
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    53.9%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.5%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.2%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.