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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7SEA
SEA

SEA

90-72

10
3
TOR

TOR

94-68

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
44,814 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 10 · TOR 3 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA30003130010
TOR2100000003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Oct 13·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 10–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Nathan Lukes

Nathan Lukes

RF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA90-72
10
3
TOR94-68
SEA90-72·TOR94-68
SEA

SEA

90-72

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-44210003
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-33200021
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-44113113
SPRINT28.688
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
2-55223101
SPRINT25.310
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
3-44132101
SPRINT23.81
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44110012
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-22000001
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
0-44000011
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-33012000
SPRINT25.513
M. MastrobuoniM. Mastrobuoni3B
0-11000001
M. GarverM. GarverC
1-11010000
L. RivasL. Rivas3B
0-11100010
Team10-36361010103614
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
3.0532120
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
2.0100010
C. VargasC. VargasRP
2.0000110
E. HancockE. HancockSP
2.0000310
Team9.0632550
TOR

TOR

94-68

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-44110010
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
3-44131001
SPRINT27.148
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-33000010
SPRINT26.123
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-44000001
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
1-33011010
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-44000001
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT27.354
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-33000011
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-33000011
Team6-3232362055
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. YesavageT. Yesavage★SP
4.0455341
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0111031
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.1211000
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.0222031
C. BassittC. BassittSP
1.2000020
E. LauerE. LauerSP
1.0100020
Team9.01010106143

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • L. Gilbert
    58 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      47%·95.4 mph·12% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.0 mph·10% whiff
    • FS
      19%·80.3 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      2%·83.9 mph·— whiff
  • E. Hancock
    39 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      64%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      26%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·77.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      3%·87.9 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Vargas
    36 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      64%·98.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      31%·95.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      6%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Bazardo
    30 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      77%·95.4 mph·10% whiff
    • ST
      20%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      3%·90.7 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • T. Yesavage
    70 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      44%·94.1 mph·12% whiff
    • SL
      33%·88.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      23%·83.8 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Bassitt
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      42%·92.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      25%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·71.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      8%·89.9 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      8%·74.0 mph·— whiff
  • B. Fisher
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • CU
      52%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·88.2 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.3 mph·— whiff
  • E. Lauer
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      44%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      22%·86.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      17%·75.1 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      11%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·82.2 mph·— whiff
  • L. Varland
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      38%·98.4 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      31%·88.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      25%·93.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·92.7 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      56%·94.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      38%·87.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.3 mph·— whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FC
      53%·91.3 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      47%·83.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

6

10

Runs

3

1

Errors

1

Playoff series

SEA leads series 2-0

Oct 13SEASEA3@TORTOR1
Oct 13SEASEA10@TORTOR3today
Oct 16TORTOR13@SEASEA4
Oct 17TORTOR8@SEASEA2
Oct 17TORTOR2@SEASEA6
Oct 20SEASEA2@TORTOR6
Oct 21SEASEA3@TORTOR4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 27pp · Top 5th Inning

SEASEA
J. Naylor

J. Naylor

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
N. Lukes

N. Lukes

RF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

T. Yesavage

T. Yesavage

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SEA beat TOR 10-3. Polanco's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEATop 1st Inning · 3-0
+16pp→ 81% WP

Rodr · íguez homered to left (370 feet), Arozarena scored and Raleigh scored.

TORBottom 2nd Inning · 3-3
+11pp→ 52% WP

Lukes · singled to right, Clement scored, Springer to third.

SEATop 5th Inning · 6-3
+27pp→ 83% WP

Polanco · homered to center (400 feet), Arozarena scored and Raleigh scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA30003130010
TOR2100000003

Period scoring

SEA won 4 · TOR won 1

3
2

Inn 1

Rodr 3

Lukes 1

0
1

Inn 2

Lukes 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

3
0

Inn 5

Polanco 3

1
0

Inn 6

Crawford 1

3
0

Inn 7

Naylor 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SEA
TOR

Play-by-play · 647 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  2. B9

    ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  3. B9

    Springer grounded into double play, third to second to first, Schneider out at second.

    · ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  7. B9

    Emerson Hancock pitches to George Springer

    · ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  8. B9

    · ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  9. B9

    Giménez struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  17. B9

    Emerson Hancock pitches to Andres Gimenez

    · ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  18. B9

    ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  19. B9

    Schneider walked.

    ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  26. B9

    Emerson Hancock pitches to Davis Schneider

    ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  27. B9

    Mastrobuoni at first base.

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SEA 10·TOR 3

  30. T9

    · ·

    SEA 10·TOR 3

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

10

Runs

3

10

Hits

6

1

Errors

1

21

TB

7

3

HR

0

6

BB

5

14

K

5

14

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 13 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 9, 25sim 95
    228
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 20, 25sim 94
    122
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 94
    163
    8(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 8, 25sim 93
    146
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 16, 25sim 93
    1413
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 92
    195
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

TOR vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.6± 2.4high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Luke RaleySEA
    1.8± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    2.4± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    55.1%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.8%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.6%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.