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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2LAD
LAD

LAD

92-69

5
3
SEA

SEA

90-71

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
45,701 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 5 · SEA 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0000201025
SEA0000300003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 13, 25sim 96
    105
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 96
    196
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 95
    27
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 94
    24
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 94
    193
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 20, 25sim 94
    122
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Sep 27·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 5–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Enrique Hernandez

Enrique Hernandez

1B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Jorge Polanco

Jorge Polanco

1B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD92-69
5
3
SEA90-71
LAD92-69·SEA90-71
LAD

LAD

92-69

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
0-55000001
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-44000001
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-22010020
SPRINT24.74
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-44000000
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
1-33210010
SPRINT2622
A. CallA. Call★LF
0-33100011
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-44110002
SPRINT26.123
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
3-44032001
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
1-44112100
SPRINT27.867
Team7-3333574146
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. GlasnowT. Glasnow★SP
3.0300130
A. HeaneyA. HeaneySP
2.0433121
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
1.0000010
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0100030
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.0000030
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
1.0000030
Team9.08332151
SEA

SEA

90-71

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
3-55030001
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-44100003
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT28.688
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-33113112
SPRINT25.310
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-44000002
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-33000011
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.175
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
1-44010002
H. FordH. Ford★C
1-44010002
Team8-35353831215
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
5.0422151
L. EvansL. EvansSP
3.0211110
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0122200
Team9.0755461

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

8

5

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 3-0

Sep 27LADLAD3@SEASEA2
Sep 28LADLAD5@SEASEA3today
Sep 28LADLAD6@SEASEA1

Season series

LAD lead series 2-0

Sep 27LADLAD3@SEASEA2
Sep 28LADLAD5@SEASEA3today
Sep 28LADLAD6@SEASEA1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 36pp · Bottom 5th Inning

LADLAD
E. Hernández

E. Hernández

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

SEASEA
J. Polanco

J. Polanco

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat SEA 5-3. Polanco's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 5th Inning · 2-0
+26pp→ 73% WP

Rushing · homered to right (383 feet), Rojas scored.

SEABottom 5th Inning · 2-3
+36pp→ 70% WP

Polanco · homered to left (357 feet), Raleigh scored and Rodríguez scored.

LADTop 9th Inning · 5-3
+24pp→ 93% WP

E. Hern · ández doubled to left, Call scored and Conforto scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0000201025
SEA0000300003

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

5

Runs

3

7

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

13

TB

12

1

HR

1

4

BB

2

6

K

15

14

LOB

14

Win probability

SEA vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

LAD won 2 · SEA won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
3

Inn 5

Rushing 2

Polanco 3

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Rushing 1

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Hern 2

LAD
SEA

Play-by-play · 567 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  2. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  3. B9

    Arozarena struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  7. B9

    Edgardo Henriquez pitches to Randy Arozarena

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  8. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  9. B9

    Ford struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

    −3pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  16. B9

    Edgardo Henriquez pitches to Harry Ford

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  17. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  18. B9

    Rivas struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

    −3pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  22. B9

    Edgardo Henriquez pitches to Leo Rivas

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  23. B9

    Henriquez relieved Vesia

    ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  26. T9

    · ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  27. T9

    Edman grounded out to first.

    · ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  29. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Tommy Edman

    · ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

  30. T9

    · ·

    LAD 5·SEA 3

Player projections

SEA vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.6± 2.4high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    55.6%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.3%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.4%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175