• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+4SEA
TOR

TOR

94-68

2
6
SEA

SEA

90-72

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
46,758 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

TOR 2 · SEA 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0000110002
SEA010000056

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Oct 17·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Toronto Blue Jays, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

1B

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Eugenio Suarez

Eugenio Suarez

DH

3.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

5

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR94-68
2
6
SEA90-72
TOR94-68·SEA90-72
TOR

TOR

94-68

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-33011001
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-33010010
SPRINT27.148
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-22010021
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
1-33110011
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-44000001
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44011000
SPRINT27.354
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
1-33110001
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
1-44010000
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-44000000
J. LoperfidoJ. LoperfidoLF
0-11000000
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000000
Team7-3232272045
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
5.2311341
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.1000120
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0122001
Team8.0566663
SEA

SEA

90-72

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-44000001
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
2-44121101
SPRINT25.716
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-33100012
SPRINT25.310
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-33110010
SPRINT23.81
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-22100010
SPRINT26.941
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
2-33225210
SPRINT25.818
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-33000010
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-44000001
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
0-33000011
Team5-2929656366
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. MillerB. Miller★SP
4.0411240
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0100110
B. WooB. WooSP
2.0211100
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
1.0000000
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0000000
Team9.0722450

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    91 pitches·26% CSW
    • FS
      47%·84.0 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      37%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·84.0 mph·40% whiff
  • L. Varland
    27 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      37%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      22%·88.7 mph·80% whiff
    • SL
      15%·92.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·98.0 mph·— whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      69%·97.2 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      19%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·84.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Little
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      53%·93.3 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      33%·87.0 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      13%·93.7 mph·0% whiff

SEA

  • B. Miller
    56 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.5 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      27%·84.5 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      16%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·84.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      7%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Woo
    28 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      57%·96.3 mph·8% whiff
    • SI
      29%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·85.0 mph·33% whiff
  • M. Brash
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      70%·86.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      10%·89.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Munoz
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      36%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·84.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      27%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Speier
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      56%·93.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      11%·84.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

5

2

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Playoff series

SEA leads series 3-2

Oct 13SEASEA3@TORTOR1
Oct 13SEASEA10@TORTOR3
Oct 16TORTOR13@SEASEA4
Oct 17TORTOR8@SEASEA2
Oct 17TORTOR2@SEASEA6today
Oct 20SEASEA2@TORTOR6
Oct 21SEASEA3@TORTOR4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 32pp · Bottom 8th Inning

TORTOR
V. Guerrero Jr.

V. Guerrero Jr.

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

SEASEA
E. Suarez

E. Suarez

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-3 · 2 HR · 3.417 OPS

B. Miller

B. Miller

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SEA beat TOR 6-2. Raleigh's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Win probability

SEA vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+21pp→ 72% WP

Naylor · singled to left.

TORTop 6th Inning · 2-1
+16pp→ 66% WP

Clement · singled to right, Kirk scored, Clement to second.

SEABottom 8th Inning · 2-2
+32pp→ 65% WP

Raleigh · homered to left (348 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0000110002
SEA01000005—6

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · SEA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Springer 1

1
0

Inn 6

Clement 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
5

Inn 8

Raleigh 1

0

Inn 9

TOR
SEA

Play-by-play · 548 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  2. T9

    Loperfido grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  6. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Joey Loperfido

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  7. T9

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  8. T9

    Giménez flied out to left.

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  13. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Andres Gimenez

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  14. T9

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  15. T9

    Kiner-Falefa flied out to right.

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

    +0.8pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  20. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  21. T9

    Muñoz relieved Speier

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  22. T9

    Robles in right field.

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  25. B8

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  26. B8

    Rivas grounded out to second.

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  28. B8

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Leo Rivas

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  29. B8

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

  30. B8

    Canzone grounded out to first.

    ·

    TOR 2·SEA 6

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

2

Runs

6

7

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

12

TB

15

0

HR

3

4

BB

6

5

K

6

18

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

SEA vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.6± 2.4high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Luke RaleySEA
    1.8± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    2.4± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    50.2%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.7%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.7%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 17, 25sim 95
    148
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 10, 25sim 94
    80
    16(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 6, 25sim 93
    194
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 93
    27
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 15, 25sim 92
    195
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 92
    21
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs