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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4LAD
LAD

LAD

93-69

5
1
MIL

MIL

97-65

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
41,427 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 5 · MIL 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0200011105
MIL1000000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 6, 25sim 95
    194
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 8, 25sim 95
    145
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 14, 25sim 95
    192
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 94
    195
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 26, 25sim 94
    195
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 9, 25sim 93
    221
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Oct 14·Final/Seriestied 2-2

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Enrique Hernandez

Enrique Hernandez

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jackson Chourio

Jackson Chourio

LF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
LAD93-69
5
1
MIL97-65
LAD93-69·MIL97-65
LAD

LAD

93-69

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-55011003
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-33000010
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-55010001
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-44110011
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-44111111
SPRINT27.354
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
2-55121100
SPRINT28.381
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
2-44021001
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
2-33220011
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-22011000
Team11-35355115248
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
9.0311171
Team9.0311171
MIL

MIL

97-65

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
1-44111101
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-44000000
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-44000001
SPRINT27.148
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
0-44000001
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-33010000
SPRINT28.790
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-33000002
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
0-33000000
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-11000010
I. CollinsI. CollinsLF
0-11000001
Team3-3131131117
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. PeraltaF. Peralta★SP
5.2533142
A. UribeA. UribeRP
0.2211010
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
0.2100010
T. MyersT. MyersRP
0.2211200
R. GasserR. GasserSP
0.2100120
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
0.2000000
Team9.01155482

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

3

5

Runs

1

1

Errors

1

Playoff series

LAD lead series 2-0

Oct 14LADLAD2@MILMIL1
Oct 15LADLAD5@MILMIL1today
Oct 16MILMIL1@LADLAD3
Oct 18MILMIL1@LADLAD5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 6th Inning

LADLAD
E. Hernández

E. Hernández

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.417 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

9.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

MILMIL
J. Chourio

J. Chourio

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat MIL 5-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIL vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 2nd Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 46% WP

T. Hern · ández homered to left (377 feet).

LADTop 2nd Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 59% WP

Pages · doubled to right, E. Hernández scored.

LADTop 6th Inning · 3-1
+14pp→ 72% WP

Muncy · homered to center (412 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0200011105
MIL1000000001

Period scoring

LAD won 4 · MIL won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Chourio 1

2
0

Inn 2

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Muncy 1

1
0

Inn 7

Ohtani 1

1
0

Inn 8

Edman 1

0
0

Inn 9

LAD
MIL

Play-by-play · 553 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  2. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  3. B9

    Vaughn struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  8. B9

    Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitches to Andrew Vaughn

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  9. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  10. B9

    Yelich grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  14. B9

    Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitches to Christian Yelich

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  15. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  16. B9

    Contreras flied out to center.

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  24. B9

    Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitches to William Contreras

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  25. B9

    Pages in right field.

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  26. B9

    Dean in center field.

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  29. T9

    · ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  30. T9

    T. Hernández grounded into double play, third to second to first, Smith out at second.

    · ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

5

Runs

1

11

Hits

3

1

Errors

1

21

TB

6

2

HR

1

4

BB

1

8

K

7

23

LOB

7

Player projections

MIL vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    52.4%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.5%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.7%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 11 players in cohort
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175