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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6CHC
MIL

MIL

97-65

0
6
CHC

CHC

92-70

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
41,770 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

MIL 0 · CHC 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0000000000
CHC300001116

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 8, 25sim 96
    83
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 17, 25sim 94
    142
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 93
    220
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 92
    83
    25(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 92
    21
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 91
    226
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Oct 9·Final/SeriesCHC win series 5-0

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off Milwaukee Brewers, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Andrew Vaughn

Andrew Vaughn

1B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Kyle Tucker

Kyle Tucker

RF

2.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
MIL97-65
0
6
CHC92-70
MIL97-65·CHC92-70
MIL

MIL

97-65

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-22000021
SPRINT27.148
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
1-44010001
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-44000001
SPRINT24.96
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-44000001
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
1-33010010
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-44000001
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT28.790
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
0-22000011
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-22000001
Team3-2828030048
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. PeraltaF. Peralta★SP
4.0333261
T. MegillT. MegillRP
0.1100110
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.1110210
C. PatrickC. PatrickRP
0.1000000
R. GasserR. GasserSP
2.0522102
Team8.01065683
CHC

CHC

92-70

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-44111112
SPRINT25.716
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
3-55130000
SPRINT28.278
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
2-33221120
SPRINT26.123
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-55010002
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-55113100
SPRINT27.662
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-44100002
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-22000010
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33000012
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
2-33021010
SPRINT28.992
Team10-34346106368
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BoydM. Boyd★SP
4.2200360
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.1100000
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.0000020
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000100
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.0000000
Team9.0300480

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

10

0

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Playoff series

Series tied 2-2

Oct 4CHCCHC3@MILMIL9
Oct 7CHCCHC3@MILMIL7
Oct 8MILMIL3@CHCCHC4
Oct 10MILMIL0@CHCCHC6today
Oct 12CHCCHC1@MILMIL3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 25pp · Bottom 1st Inning

MILMIL
A. Vaughn

A. Vaughn

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

CHCCHC
K. Tucker

K. Tucker

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.467 OPS

M. Boyd

M. Boyd

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CHC beat MIL 6-0. Happ's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Win probability

CHC vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+25pp→ 81% WP

Happ · homered to right (410 feet), Hoerner scored and Tucker scored.

CHCTop 5th Inning · 0-3
+7pp→ 84% WP

Yelich · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0000000000
CHC30000111—6

Period scoring

MIL won 0 · CHC won 4

0
3

Inn 1

Happ 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Shaw 1

0
1

Inn 7

Tucker 1

0
1

Inn 8

Busch 1

0

Inn 9

MIL
CHC

Play-by-play · 560 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  2. T9

    Durbin grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  5. T9

    Caleb Thielbar pitches to Caleb Durbin

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  6. T9

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  7. T9

    Vaughn grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  14. T9

    Caleb Thielbar pitches to Andrew Vaughn

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  15. T9

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  16. T9

    Turang grounded out to second.

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  19. T9

    Caleb Thielbar pitches to Brice Turang

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  20. T9

    Thielbar relieved Keller

    ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  23. B8

    · ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  24. B8

    Happ grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  25. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  26. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

  30. B8

    Robert Gasser pitches to Ian Happ

    · ·

    MIL 0·CHC 6

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

0

Runs

6

3

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

4

TB

19

0

HR

3

4

BB

6

8

K

8

14

LOB

23

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CHC vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    48.3%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.6%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.1%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.