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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAD
LAD

LAD

93-69

4
3
PHI

PHI

96-66

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
45,653 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 4 · PHI 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0000004004
PHI0000000123

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Oct 6·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Max Muncy

Max Muncy

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Harrison Bader

Harrison Bader

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD93-69
4
3
PHI96-66
LAD93-69·PHI96-66
LAD

LAD

93-69

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-55011002
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-44010000
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
2-33120010
SPRINT28.381
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-44110001
SPRINT24.74
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
0-44000002
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
0-44101002
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
0-22000000
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-44000000
B. RortvedtB. Rortvedt★C
0-11000001
M. MuncyM. Muncy3B
1-11110010
W. SmithW. SmithC
1-22012010
SPRINT2744
Team7-3434474038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SnellB. Snell★SP
6.0100490
E. SheehanE. SheehanSP
2.0211010
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
0.2100000
R. SasakiR. SasakiSP
0.1000000
Team9.07334100
PHI

PHI

96-66

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44011012
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-33000012
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-33000011
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT26.632
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-44110000
SPRINT28.381
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-44012001
SPRINT27.148
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
1-22010001
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-22000010
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
0-22000002
B. StottB. Stott2B
0-22000000
H. BaderH. BaderCF
1-11010000
M. KeplerM. KeplerLF
1-22110000
Team7-33333730410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LuzardoJ. Luzardo★SP
6.0322150
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
0.2122110
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
0.1100000
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0100000
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0100120
Team9.0744380

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • B. Snell
    99 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      33%·96.5 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      26%·90.1 mph·54% whiff
    • CH
      23%·85.9 mph·60% whiff
    • CU
      17%·82.2 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Sheehan
    27 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      59%·96.6 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      22%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·79.0 mph·— whiff
  • B. Treinen
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • ST
      50%·85.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      33%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Vesia
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      56%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      44%·92.4 mph·67% whiff
  • R. Sasaki
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      50%·99.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FO
      50%·84.6 mph·— whiff

PHI

  • J. Luzardo
    82 pitches·34% CSW
    • ST
      29%·86.5 mph·46% whiff
    • FF
      27%·97.3 mph·23% whiff
    • SI
      21%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·88.3 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Duran
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • FS
      46%·98.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      35%·101.0 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      12%·88.4 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      8%·88.6 mph·— whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      40%·98.0 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      40%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Banks
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      38%·83.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      50%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·92.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      25%·93.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

4

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Playoff series

LAD lead series 2-0

Oct 4LADLAD5@PHIPHI3
Oct 6LADLAD4@PHIPHI3today
Oct 9PHIPHI8@LADLAD2
Oct 9PHIPHI1@LADLAD2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 24pp · Bottom 9th Inning

LADLAD
M. Muncy

M. Muncy

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

B. Snell

B. Snell

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 4 BB

PHIPHI
H. Bader

H. Bader

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat PHI 4-3. Castellanos's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 7th Inning · 3-0
+24pp→ 88% WP

Smith · singled to left, E. Hernández scored and Freeman scored, Muncy to second.

PHIBottom 9th Inning · 4-3
+24pp→ 45% WP

Castellanos · doubled to left, Bohm scored and Realmuto scored.

LADBottom 9th Inning · 4-3
+21pp→ 100% WP

Turner · grounded out to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0000004004
PHI0000000123

Period scoring

LAD won 1 · PHI won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

4
0

Inn 7

Smith 2

0
1

Inn 8

Turner 1

0
2

Inn 9

Castellanos 2

LAD
PHI

Play-by-play · 567 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  3. B9

    Turner grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

    −21pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  6. B9

    Roki Sasaki pitches to Trea Turner

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  7. B9

    Sasaki relieved Vesia

    ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  8. B9

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  9. B9

    Kepler grounded into fielder's choice to first, Wilson out at second, Stott to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

    −12pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  13. B9

    Alex Vesia pitches to Max Kepler

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  14. B9

    Wilson ran for Bader

    ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  15. B9

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  16. B9

    Bader singled to left, Stott to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

    +11pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  21. B9

    Alex Vesia pitches to Harrison Bader

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  22. B9

    Bader hit for Marsh

    ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  23. B9

    ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  24. B9

    Stott bunted into fielder's choice to third, Castellanos out at third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

    −23pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  27. B9

    Alex Vesia pitches to Bryson Stott

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  28. B9

    Vesia relieved Treinen

    ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  29. B9

    ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

  30. B9

    Castellanos doubled to left, Bohm scored and Realmuto scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 4·PHI 3

    +24pp

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

4

Runs

3

7

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

9

TB

11

0

HR

0

3

BB

4

8

K

10

15

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

PHI vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.2± 2.9low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Alex CallLAD
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    52.5%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.5%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.9%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 8, 25sim 97
    145
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 96
    195
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 15, 25sim 95
    195
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 1, 25sim 95
    23
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 17, 25sim 94
    148
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 17, 25sim 93
    142
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs