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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6TOR
TOR

TOR

94-68

8
2
SEA

SEA

90-72

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
46,981 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 8 · SEA 2 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0032001208
SEA0100010002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 17, 25sim 95
    142
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 6, 25sim 94
    194
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 94
    101
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 93
    195
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 9, 25sim 92
    228
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 8, 25sim 92
    145
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Oct 16·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Andres Gimenez

Andres Gimenez

SS

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B

3.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR94-68
8
2
SEA90-72
TOR94-68·SEA90-72
TOR

TOR

94-68

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-55111000
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-44110010
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-55121100
SPRINT26.123
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-44000012
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-44001013
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
2-55120001
SPRINT27.354
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
1-33010011
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
2-33220000
SPRINT27.560
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
2-33124100
SPRINT27.560
Team11-36368117247
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. ScherzerM. Scherzer★SP
5.2322451
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.1100100
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0000000
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0000020
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0100010
Team9.0522581
SEA

SEA

90-72

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44000002
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-33000011
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-33000013
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-33100010
SPRINT25.310
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
3-33131110
SPRINT23.81
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44011001
SPRINT25.818
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT25.920
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-33000000
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
0-22000010
Team5-2929252158
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. CastilloL. Castillo★SP
2.1533111
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
1.1222120
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.1000000
C. VargasC. VargasRP
1.0100000
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0111021
E. HancockE. HancockSP
2.0222220
Team9.01188472

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • L. Varland
    27 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      37%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      22%·88.7 mph·80% whiff
    • SL
      15%·92.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·98.0 mph·— whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      69%·97.2 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      19%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·84.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·97.0 mph·0% whiff

SEA

  • M. Brash
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      70%·86.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      10%·89.4 mph·— whiff
  • G. Speier
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      56%·93.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      11%·84.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

5

8

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Playoff series

Series tied 2-2

Oct 13SEASEA3@TORTOR1
Oct 13SEASEA10@TORTOR3
Oct 16TORTOR13@SEASEA4
Oct 17TORTOR8@SEASEA2today
Oct 17TORTOR2@SEASEA6
Oct 20SEASEA2@TORTOR6
Oct 21SEASEA3@TORTOR4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 3rd Inning

TORTOR
A. Gimenez

A. Gimenez

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

M. Scherzer

M. Scherzer

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

SEASEA
J. Naylor

J. Naylor

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS

E. Hancock

E. Hancock

SP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TOR beat SEA 8-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SEA vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 74% WP

Naylor · homered to center (394 feet).

TORTop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+17pp→ 53% WP

Gim · énez homered to right (364 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored.

TORTop 4th Inning · 4-1
+10pp→ 79% WP

Springer · doubled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0032001208
SEA0100010002

Period scoring

TOR won 4 · SEA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Naylor 1

3
0

Inn 3

Gim 2

2
0

Inn 4

Springer 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Jr. 1

2
0

Inn 8

Gim 2

0
0

Inn 9

TOR
SEA

Play-by-play · 570 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  3. B9

    Canzone struck out looking.

    · ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  5. B9

    Naylor to second on wild pitch by Domínguez.

    ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  6. B9

    Naylor to second on wild pitch by Domínguez.

    ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  12. B9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Dominic Canzone

    · ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  13. B9

    · ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  14. B9

    Suárez popped out to second.

    · ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  20. B9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Eugenio Suarez

    · ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  21. B9

    ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  22. B9

    Naylor singled to left.

    ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  25. B9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Josh Naylor

    ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  26. B9

    ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  27. B9

    Polanco flied out to center.

    ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 8·SEA 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

8

Runs

2

11

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

20

TB

8

2

HR

1

4

BB

5

7

K

8

14

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

SEA vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.6± 2.4high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Luke RaleySEA
    1.8± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    2.4± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    51.7%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.4%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.2%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.