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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9TOR
NYY

NYY

94-68

1
10
TOR

TOR

94-68

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
44,655 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

NYY 1 · TOR 10 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0000010001
TOR1100004410

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Oct 4·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off New York Yankees, 10–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Alejandro Kirk

Alejandro Kirk

C

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY94-68
1
10
TOR94-68
NYY94-68·TOR94-68
NYY

NYY

94-68

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-33000010
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
2-44020001
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-33001010
SPRINT27.560
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-44000002
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
0-44000001
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.175
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT2622
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-44110002
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-33010000
Team6-3232161026
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilL. Gil★SP
2.2422022
T. HillT. HillRP
1.1100000
C. DovalC. DovalRP
2.0000000
F. CruzF. CruzRP
0.2111100
P. BlackburnP. BlackburnRP
1.1644001
Team8.0141010223
TOR

TOR

94-68

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-44100010
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
2-55023000
SPRINT27.148
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
3-44132100
SPRINT26.123
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
1-44010001
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
2-44222200
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
2-33220010
SPRINT26.838
A. SantanderA. Santander★RF
1-33010001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
2-44222000
SPRINT27.560
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-33101000
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa2B
0-11000000
M. StrawM. StrawRF
1-11110000
Team14-3636101410322
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
5.2411230
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
0.2100010
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
0.2000010
B. LittleB. LittleRP
1.0100000
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0000010
Team9.0611260

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • L. Gil
    48 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      63%·95.8 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      23%·86.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      15%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Blackburn
    36 pitches·19% CSW
    • FC
      39%·90.4 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      33%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      6%·80.9 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      6%·82.5 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Hill
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      81%·88.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      19%·88.9 mph·— whiff
  • C. Doval
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      45%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      40%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·96.1 mph·100% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      56%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      38%·81.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·83.1 mph·— whiff
  • L. Weaver
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      70%·96.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      30%·89.1 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    75 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      49%·95.3 mph·5% whiff
    • FS
      45%·85.3 mph·59% whiff
    • SL
      5%·85.5 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      71%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      18%·90.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      6%·87.3 mph·100% whiff
  • L. Varland
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      38%·99.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      31%·94.6 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      31%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Little
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      57%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      29%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      14%·87.7 mph·— whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    7 pitches·57% CSW
    • FF
      57%·96.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      29%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      14%·85.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

14

1

Runs

10

0

Errors

0

Playoff series

TOR leads series 1-0

Oct 4NYYNYY1@TORTOR10today
Oct 5NYYNYY7@TORTOR13
Oct 8TORTOR6@NYYNYY9
Oct 8TORTOR5@NYYNYY2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

NYYNYY
A. Judge

A. Judge

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

L. Gil

L. Gil

SP

Starting pitcher

2.2 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H

TORTOR
A. Kirk

A. Kirk

C

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TOR beat NYY 10-1.

Win probability

TOR vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+14pp→ 78% WP

Kirk · homered to left (394 feet).

NYYTop 6th Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 37% WP

Wells · singled to right, Volpe to third.

NYYTop 6th Inning · 1-2
+12pp→ 47% WP

Bellinger · walked, Volpe scored, Grisham to second, Wells to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0000010001
TOR11000044—10

Period scoring

NYY won 1 · TOR won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Jr. 1

0
1

Inn 2

Kirk 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Bellinger 1

0
4

Inn 7

Lukes 2

0
4

Inn 8

Kirk 1

0

Inn 9

NYY
TOR

Play-by-play · 555 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  2. T9

    Volpe struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  7. T9

    Caballero to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  8. T9

    Caballero to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  10. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Anthony Volpe

    · ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  11. T9

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  12. T9

    Caballero hit by pitch.

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  16. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Jose Caballero

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  17. T9

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  18. T9

    Chisholm Jr. flied out to left.

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  19. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  20. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  26. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  27. T9

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  28. T9

    Stanton fouled out to third.

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 10

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

1

Runs

10

6

Hits

14

0

Errors

0

8

TB

26

0

HR

3

2

BB

2

6

K

2

17

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 17, 25sim 94
    148
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 6, 25sim 93
    194
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 8, 25sim 92
    146
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 17, 25sim 92
    142
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 91
    195
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 15, 25sim 91
    195
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

TOR vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.8± 3.3low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    0.7± 0.8high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.3± 2.7low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.0%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    51.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.5%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.7%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.