• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+9TOR
TOR

TOR

94-68

13
4
SEA

SEA

90-72

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
46,471 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 13 · SEA 4 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR00512400113
SEA2000000204

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Oct 15·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 13–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

1B

2.750OPS

4-4

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Harry Ford

Harry Ford

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR94-68
13
4
SEA90-72
TOR94-68·SEA90-72
TOR

TOR

94-68

13
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
3-66231101
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-66111001
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
4-44341110
SPRINT26.123
A. SantanderA. Santander★RF
0-22100011
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
2-44223110
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
2-55022001
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
1-55111100
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
2-55121001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
3-55232101
SPRINT27.560
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-22000001
Team18-4444131812537
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BieberS. Bieber★SP
6.0422181
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.0100000
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
1.0222012
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
1.0100010
Team9.08441103
SEA

SEA

90-72

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-33211111
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-44111101
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-44122101
SPRINT28.688
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-33010000
SPRINT25.310
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-33000001
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44010001
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-33000002
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
0-44000001
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-33010001
L. RivasL. Rivas3B
0-11000001
H. FordH. FordC
1-11010000
M. GarverM. GarverC
0-11000000
Team8-34344843110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
4.0888243
C. VargasC. VargasRP
1.0422000
C. FergusonC. FergusonRP
2.0322121
L. JacksonL. JacksonRP
2.0311011
Team9.0181313375

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • M. Fluharty
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      57%·80.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      43%·90.6 mph·0% whiff

SEA

  • C. Vargas
    14 pitches·7% CSW
    • SI
      86%·98.4 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      7%·95.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      7%·96.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

18

Hits

8

13

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Playoff series

SEA leads series 2-1

Oct 13SEASEA3@TORTOR1
Oct 13SEASEA10@TORTOR3
Oct 16TORTOR13@SEASEA4today
Oct 17TORTOR8@SEASEA2
Oct 17TORTOR2@SEASEA6
Oct 20SEASEA2@TORTOR6
Oct 21SEASEA3@TORTOR4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 27pp · Top 3rd Inning

TORTOR
V. Guerrero Jr.

V. Guerrero Jr.

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

S. Bieber

S. Bieber

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

SEASEA
H. Ford

H. Ford

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

G. Kirby

G. Kirby

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 8 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TOR beat SEA 13-4. Varsho's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SEA vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+18pp→ 71% WP

Rodr · íguez homered to left (414 feet), Arozarena scored.

TORTop 3rd Inning · 2-2
+17pp→ 51% WP

Gim · énez homered to right center (399 feet), Clement scored.

TORTop 3rd Inning · 5-2
+27pp→ 81% WP

Varsho · doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored and Kirk scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR00512400113
SEA2000000204

Period scoring

TOR won 5 · SEA won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Rodr 2

0
0

Inn 2

5
0

Inn 3

Varsho 3

1
0

Inn 4

Springer 1

2
0

Inn 5

Jr. 1

4
0

Inn 6

Kirk 3

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Arozarena 1

1
0

Inn 9

Barger 1

TOR
SEA

Play-by-play · 587 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  3. B9

    Robles grounded out to first.

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  5. B9

    Mason Fluharty pitches to Victor Robles

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  6. B9

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  7. B9

    Garver fouled out to first.

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  9. B9

    Ford to second on wild pitch by Fluharty.

    ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  10. B9

    Ford to second on wild pitch by Fluharty.

    ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  13. B9

    Mason Fluharty pitches to Mitch Garver

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  14. B9

    Garver hit for Canzone

    ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  15. B9

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  16. B9

    Suárez struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 10 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  27. B9

    Mason Fluharty pitches to Eugenio Suarez

    · ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  28. B9

    ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  29. B9

    Ford singled to center.

    ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 13·SEA 4

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

13

Runs

4

18

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

37

TB

18

5

HR

3

3

BB

1

7

K

10

18

LOB

10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 8, 25sim 93
    146
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 13, 25sim 93
    1210
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 5, 25sim 92
    107
    14(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 17, 25sim 89
    148
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 9, 25sim 88
    228
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 88
    195
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

SEA vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.6± 2.4high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Luke RaleySEA
    1.8± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    2.4± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.5%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    53.5%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.9%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.0%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.