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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3NYY
TOR

TOR

94-68

6
9
NYY

NYY

94-68

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
47,399 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

TOR 6 · NYY 9 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR2040000006
NYY102321009

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 5, 25sim 94
    107
    14(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 16, 25sim 93
    1413
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 13, 25sim 93
    1210
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 25, 25sim 92
    194
    14(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 92
    101
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 90
    195
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Oct 7·Final/SeriesNYY win series 3-1

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Toronto Blue Jays, 9–6.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Ernie Clement

Ernie Clement

2B

2.000OPS

4-4

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

RF

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

3

R

4

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR94-68
6
9
NYY94-68
TOR94-68·NYY94-68
TOR

TOR

94-68

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-55000003
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
1-33210011
SPRINT26.838
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-44222110
SPRINT26.123
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-44000000
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-44110003
SPRINT26.838
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
4-44141000
SPRINT27.354
A. SantanderA. Santander★RF
1-44012001
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-11000000
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-33000000
N. LukesN. LukesRF
0-11000001
A. BargerA. BargerRF
0-33000002
Team9-36366951211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BieberS. Bieber★SP
2.2532120
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.2021110
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0222022
B. FisherB. FisherRP
0.2211010
B. LittleB. LittleRP
0.2111100
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
1.1000000
T. NanceT. NanceRP
1.0200100
Team8.01297462
NYY

NYY

94-68

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-44210010
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
3-44334110
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
2-44120010
SPRINT27.560
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-33001001
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-44012001
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-33111110
SPRINT28.175
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-11000000
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-44000003
A. WellsA. Wells★C
2-44121001
SPRINT25.18
J. CaballeroJ. CaballeroSS
1-11010000
A. RosarioA. Rosario3B
1-22110000
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt1B
0-11000000
Team12-35359129246
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. RodonC. Rodon★SP
2.1666221
F. CruzF. CruzRP
1.1100030
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0100010
T. HillT. HillRP
1.1000010
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.1100020
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.2000020
Team9.09662111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • M. Fluharty
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • ST
      67%·82.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      33%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Varland
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      40%·99.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      20%·94.7 mph·— whiff
    • KC
      20%·89.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      15%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Little
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • FC
      72%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      28%·87.0 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • CU
      65%·83.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      24%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·94.5 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      6%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • SL
      86%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      14%·91.7 mph·0% whiff

NYY

  • D. Williams
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • CH
      70%·84.2 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      30%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • CU
      50%·78.1 mph·60% whiff
    • FS
      36%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·96.2 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Doval
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      50%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·88.6 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

12

6

Runs

9

2

Errors

0

Playoff series

TOR leads series 2-1

Oct 4NYYNYY1@TORTOR10
Oct 5NYYNYY7@TORTOR13
Oct 8TORTOR6@NYYNYY9today
Oct 8TORTOR5@NYYNYY2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 29pp · Bottom 4th Inning

TORTOR
E. Clement

E. Clement

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

S. Bieber

S. Bieber

SP

Starting pitcher

2.2 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

NYYNYY
A. Judge

A. Judge

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

C. Rodon

C. Rodon

SP

Starting pitcher

2.1 IP · 2 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYY beat TOR 9-6. Judge's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Win probability

NYY vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+17pp→ 66% WP

Guerrero Jr. · homered to center (427 feet), Schneider scored.

NYYBottom 4th Inning · 6-6
+29pp→ 56% WP

Judge · homered to left (386 feet), Wells scored and Grisham scored.

NYYBottom 5th Inning · 6-7
+15pp→ 70% WP

Chisholm Jr. · homered to right (409 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR2040000006
NYY10232100—9

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · NYY won 3

2
1

Inn 1

Jr. 2

Stanton 1

0
0

Inn 2

4
2

Inn 3

Santander 2

Judge 1

0
3

Inn 4

Judge 3

0
2

Inn 5

Jr. 1

0
1

Inn 6

Rice 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TOR
NYY

Play-by-play · 616 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  2. T9

    Guerrero Jr. grounded out to third.

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  10. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  11. T9

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  12. T9

    Lukes struck out looking.

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

    +1pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  18. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Nathan Lukes

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  19. T9

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  20. T9

    Springer struck out swinging.

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

    +2pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  25. T9

    David Bednar pitches to George Springer

    ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  28. B8

    · ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

  29. B8

    Stanton popped out to second.

    · ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

    −0.9pp

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 6·NYY 9

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

6

Runs

9

9

Hits

12

2

Errors

0

14

TB

22

1

HR

2

2

BB

4

11

K

6

14

LOB

15

Player projections

NYY vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.8± 3.3low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    0.7± 0.8high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.3± 2.7low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.9%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    52.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.4%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.2%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175