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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6TOR
NYY

NYY

94-68

7
13
TOR

TOR

94-68

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
44,764 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

NYY 7 · TOR 13 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0000025007
TOR0236110013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Oct 5·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off New York Yankees, 13–7. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

RF

1.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Daulton Varsho

Daulton Varsho

CF

2.800OPS

5-4

AB-H

4

R

4

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY94-68
7
13
TOR94-68
NYY94-68·TOR94-68
NYY

NYY

94-68

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-55110003
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
2-33221021
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44113102
SPRINT27.560
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
2-44121012
SPRINT26.941
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
2-55022002
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-44000001
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-44110000
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-44000003
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-22000001
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt1B
1-22110000
Team10-373771071315
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FriedM. Fried★SP
3.0877211
W. WarrenW. WarrenSP
4.2766144
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
0.1000000
Team8.0151313355
TOR

TOR

94-68

13
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
2-44221110
SPRINT25.920
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
1-33110012
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
3-55234100
SPRINT26.123
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
1-55111000
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
4-55444200
SPRINT26.838
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
3-44133100
SPRINT27.354
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-44000001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-44110001
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
0-33100011
N. LukesN. LukesRF
0-11000000
Team15-3838131513535
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. YesavageT. Yesavage★SP
5.10001110
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
0.1322001
B. FisherB. FisherRP
0.1100010
E. LauerE. LauerSP
0.1333010
T. NanceT. NanceRP
0.1322000
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.1000000
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0000000
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0000220
Team9.010773151

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • W. Warren
    84 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.2 mph·19% whiff
    • SI
      31%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Fried
    51 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      39%·96.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      22%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·86.9 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      12%·76.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      100%·97.1 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • T. Yesavage
    78 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      45%·94.6 mph·22% whiff
    • FS
      37%·84.2 mph·69% whiff
    • SL
      18%·89.1 mph·67% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      36%·85.9 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      12%·86.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      8%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Lauer
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      38%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·75.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      19%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • CU
      60%·85.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      33%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • ST
      50%·78.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·88.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      25%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • CU
      40%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      40%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.5 mph·100% whiff
  • L. Varland
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • KC
      50%·88.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      20%·99.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·98.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      10%·95.1 mph·— whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    2 pitches·50% CSW
    • ST
      100%·82.9 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

15

7

Runs

13

1

Errors

1

Playoff series

TOR leads series 2-0

Oct 4NYYNYY1@TORTOR10
Oct 5NYYNYY7@TORTOR13today
Oct 8TORTOR6@NYYNYY9
Oct 8TORTOR5@NYYNYY2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

NYYNYY
A. Judge

A. Judge

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.467 OPS

W. Warren

W. Warren

SP

Top reliever

4.2 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
D. Varsho

D. Varsho

CF

Batter of the game2-HR game

4-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.800 OPS

T. Yesavage

T. Yesavage

SP

Starting pitcher11-K game

5.1 IP · 11 K · 0 ER · 1 BB

How it ended

TOR beat NYY 13-7.

Win probability

TOR vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+6pp→ 58% WP

Stanton · struck out swinging.

TORBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+13pp→ 67% WP

Clement · homered to left (354 feet), Varsho scored.

TORBottom 3rd Inning · 0-4
+7pp→ 86% WP

Varsho · doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0000025007
TOR02361100—13

Period scoring

NYY won 2 · TOR won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Clement 2

0
3

Inn 3

Kirk 1

0
6

Inn 4

Jr. 4

0
1

Inn 5

Springer 1

2
1

Inn 6

Bellinger 2

Varsho 1

5
0

Inn 7

Stanton 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYY
TOR

Play-by-play · 601 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  2. T9

    Stanton struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  6. T9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Giancarlo Stanton

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  7. T9

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  8. T9

    Rice walked.

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  9. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  10. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  16. T9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Ben Rice

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  17. T9

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  18. T9

    Bellinger grounded out to shortstop, Judge to second.

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  19. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  25. T9

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Cody Bellinger

    · ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  26. T9

    ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  27. T9

    Judge walked.

    ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 7·TOR 13

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

7

Runs

13

10

Hits

15

1

Errors

1

15

TB

33

1

HR

5

3

BB

3

15

K

5

11

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

TOR vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.8± 3.3low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    0.7± 0.8high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.3± 2.7low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.8%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    52.6%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.4%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.3%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 8, 25sim 94
    146
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 16, 25sim 92
    1413
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 15, 25sim 88
    195
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 6, 25sim 88
    194
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 88
    101
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 88
    195
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs