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FINAL+6MIL
CHC

CHC

92-70

3
9
MIL

MIL

97-65

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
42,678 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

CHC 3 · MIL 9 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC1000010103
MIL630000009

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Oct 4·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 5-0

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Chicago Cubs, 9–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Michael Busch

Michael Busch

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jackson Chourio

Jackson Chourio

LF

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC92-70
3
9
MIL97-65
CHC92-70·MIL97-65
CHC

CHC

92-70

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-44111101
SPRINT25.716
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-44111102
SPRINT28.278
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-33000010
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-44000002
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-44111101
SPRINT27.662
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-44010002
SPRINT25.716
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT29.294
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-44010003
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-11000020
M. BallesterosM. BallesterosDH
0-11000000
Team6-33333633312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BoydM. Boyd★SP
0.2462110
M. SorokaM. SorokaSP
1.0533210
A. CivaleA. CivaleSP
4.1300030
B. BrownB. BrownRP
2.0100230
Team8.01395580
MIL

MIL

97-65

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
3-33133000
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
2-55121003
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
2-55221000
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
1-44110010
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
1-33210010
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-55110000
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-44012002
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
2-44121001
SPRINT28.586
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-22000021
I. CollinsI. CollinsLF
0-22000001
Team13-37379138058
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. PeraltaF. Peralta★SP
5.2422392
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.1000010
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
1.0111001
N. MearsN. MearsRP
1.0100020
Team9.06333123

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • A. Civale
    55 pitches·31% CSW
    • CU
      38%·79.9 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      29%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      2%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Brown
    43 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      49%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      47%·89.2 mph·64% whiff
    • CH
      5%·92.4 mph·— whiff
  • M. Soroka
    38 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      42%·95.8 mph·22% whiff
    • SV
      26%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.7 mph·— whiff
  • M. Boyd
    30 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.5 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      23%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·75.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.0 mph·0% whiff

MIL

  • F. Peralta
    95 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      43%·95.0 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      25%·88.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      17%·82.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      11%·78.5 mph·38% whiff
    • CS
      4%·74.2 mph·— whiff
  • N. Mears
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.1 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      50%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Koenig
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      71%·96.8 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·81.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      6%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      50%·98.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·83.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      19%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·92.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      6%·85.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

13

3

Runs

9

1

Errors

0

Playoff series

MIL leads series 1-0

Oct 4CHCCHC3@MILMIL9today
Oct 7CHCCHC3@MILMIL7
Oct 8MILMIL3@CHCCHC4
Oct 10MILMIL0@CHCCHC6
Oct 12CHCCHC1@MILMIL3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CHCCHC
M. Busch

M. Busch

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

A. Civale

A. Civale

SP

Top reliever

4.1 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 H

MILMIL
J. Chourio

J. Chourio

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

MIL beat CHC 9-3.

Win probability

MIL vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 67% WP

Turang · doubled to right, Chourio scored.

MILBottom 1st Inning · 1-3
+7pp→ 81% WP

Frelick · safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Hoerner, Contreras scored, Vaughn to second.

MILBottom 1st Inning · 1-6
+7pp→ 93% WP

Chourio · singled to left, Frelick scored and Perkins scored, Ortiz to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC1000010103
MIL63000000—9

Period scoring

CHC won 2 · MIL won 2

1
6

Inn 1

Chourio 2

0
3

Inn 2

Durbin 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Happ 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Hoerner 1

0

Inn 9

CHC
MIL

Play-by-play · 597 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  2. T9

    Ballesteros grounded out to first.

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  8. T9

    Swanson to third on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  9. T9

    Swanson to third on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  11. T9

    Nick Mears pitches to Moises Ballesteros

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  12. T9

    Ballesteros hit for Shaw

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  13. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  14. T9

    Swanson doubled to left.

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  21. T9

    Nick Mears pitches to Dansby Swanson

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  22. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  23. T9

    Crow-Armstrong struck out looking.

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  28. T9

    Nick Mears pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  29. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  30. T9

    Kelly struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

3

Runs

9

6

Hits

13

1

Errors

0

16

TB

17

3

HR

0

3

BB

5

12

K

8

9

LOB

22

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 7, 25sim 95
    163
    8(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 13, 25sim 94
    1210
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 9, 25sim 92
    228
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 92
    195
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 92
    163
    8(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 91
    164
    8(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

MIL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.5%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    57.4%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.1%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.6%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.