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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2LAD
MIL

MIL

97-65

1
3
LAD

LAD

93-69

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
51,251 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

MIL 1 · LAD 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0100000001
LAD100002003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 3, 25sim 96
    20
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 18, 25sim 96
    81
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 30, 25sim 96
    23
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 13, 25sim 95
    123
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 9, 25sim 95
    221
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 14, 25sim 94
    192
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Oct 16·Final/Seriestied 2-2

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Milwaukee Brewers, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Caleb Durbin

Caleb Durbin

3B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Will Smith

Will Smith

C

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL97-65
1
3
LAD93-69
MIL97-65·LAD93-69
MIL

MIL

97-65

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
0-44000001
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-44000002
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-33000011
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
1-44010003
SPRINT27.148
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
0-33000011
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-44000002
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
2-33120011
SPRINT28.175
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
1-33011001
SPRINT2744
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-22000000
I. CollinsI. CollinsLF
0-11000000
Team4-31311410312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AshbyA. Ashby★RP
0.1211110
J. MisiorowskiJ. MisiorowskiSP
5.0321190
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.1000020
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
1.1000130
Team8.05323150
LAD

LAD

93-69

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-44110002
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-44011002
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-33110012
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-22100021
SPRINT24.74
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
1-44011003
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-33000002
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-33000001
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
0-33000001
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-33010001
Team5-29293520315
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. GlasnowT. Glasnow★SP
5.2311380
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
0.2100010
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.2000010
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.0000010
R. SasakiR. SasakiSP
1.0000010
Team9.04113120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • J. Misiorowski
    73 pitches·41% CSW
    • SL
      41%·94.2 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      34%·100.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      25%·88.1 mph·43% whiff
  • J. Koenig
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • FC
      33%·91.1 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·81.8 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.0 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      4%·96.6 mph·— whiff
  • A. Uribe
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      53%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      47%·84.9 mph·67% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      38%·97.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      31%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·84.6 mph·— whiff

LAD

  • T. Glasnow
    99 pitches·39% CSW
    • SI
      30%·96.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      26%·90.1 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      23%·96.2 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      20%·81.9 mph·40% whiff
  • R. Sasaki
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      54%·99.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FO
      31%·86.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      15%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Vesia
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      60%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·84.3 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Banda
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      60%·86.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      30%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Treinen
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      78%·84.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      22%·94.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

5

1

Runs

3

1

Errors

1

Playoff series

LAD lead series 3-0

Oct 14LADLAD2@MILMIL1
Oct 15LADLAD5@MILMIL1
Oct 16MILMIL1@LADLAD3today
Oct 18MILMIL1@LADLAD5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 6th Inning

MILMIL
C. Durbin

C. Durbin

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

J. Misiorowski

J. Misiorowski

SP

Top reliever

5.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

LADLAD
W. Smith

W. Smith

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

LAD beat MIL 3-1. Edman's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

LAD vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+13pp→ 70% WP

Ohtani · tripled to right.

LADBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+18pp→ 80% WP

Edman · singled to center, Smith scored, Freeman to third.

MILTop 7th Inning · 1-3
+9pp→ 25% WP

Durbin · doubled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0100000001
LAD10000200—3

Period scoring

MIL won 1 · LAD won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Betts 1

1
0

Inn 2

Bauers 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Edman 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIL
LAD

Play-by-play · 524 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  2. T9

    Durbin struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

    +0.9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  7. T9

    Roki Sasaki pitches to Caleb Durbin

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  8. T9

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  9. T9

    Frelick popped out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

    +2pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  15. T9

    Roki Sasaki pitches to Sal Frelick

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  16. T9

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  17. T9

    Vaughn grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

    +4pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  22. T9

    Roki Sasaki pitches to Andrew Vaughn

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  23. T9

    Sasaki relieved Banda

    ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  24. T9

    Pages in right field.

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  25. T9

    Dean in center field.

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  28. B8

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

  29. B8

    Edman struck out looking.

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

    −0.7pp

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 1·LAD 3

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

1

Runs

3

4

Hits

5

1

Errors

1

7

TB

8

0

HR

0

3

BB

3

12

K

15

9

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 11 players in cohort
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAD vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    55.9%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.3%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.5%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.