MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LAD

LAD

91-69

SEA

90-70

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

45,458 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
56.9%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.2%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.9%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Bryce MillerSEA
6.0± 3.0low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low

Hits

Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.5± 0.9high
Cole YoungSEA
1.2± 0.8high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.9± 1.6high
Colt EmersonSEA
2.1± 1.8high
Max MuncyLAD
2.0± 2.7high

RBIs

Ryan WardLAD
1.0± 1.7low
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.9± 0.9high
Kyle TuckerLAD
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

SEA

.788

OPS

◀

.717

.713

.346

OBP

◀

.319

.316

5.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.26

3.37

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.69

1.09

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.20

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 3 · SEA 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	3
SEA	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. OhtaniDH	.279	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. PagesCF	.274	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. ConfortoDH	.199	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
T. HernándezLF	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
H. KimSS	.280	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. RojasSS	.262	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. RushingC	.199	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
E. Hernández1B	.196	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
B. RortvedtC	.244	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. CallLF	.257	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	6	3	1	2	14

Player

AVG

RBI

.279

.274

.199

.247

.280

.262

.199

.196

.244

.257

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
E. SheehanSP	1.0	1	1	0	0	3	22
J. WrobleskiSP	2.0	3	0	0	0	3	40
W. KleinRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	30
A. BandaRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	14
R. SasakiSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	12
B. TreinenRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	20
T. ScottRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	19
Team	9.0	8	2	1	4	12	157

Player

1.0

2.0

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

157

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. ArozarenaLF	.236	4	1	2	0	0	1	2
C. RaleighC	.248	5	0	2	0	0	0	3
J. RodriguezCF	.267	2	0	0	0	0	3	1
J. Naylor1B	.299	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. SuarezDH	.197	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. RaleyRF	.206	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. CanzoneDH	.304	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
J.P. CrawfordSS	.265	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Young2B	.209	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. GarverC	.208	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
L. Rivas3B	.256	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	2	8	1	0	4	12

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
G. KirbySP	5.0	3	2	2	1	10	85
E. BazardoRP	0.2	2	1	1	1	2	34
L. JacksonRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	16
G. SpeierRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	10
C. LeguminaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	9.0	6	3	3	2	14	151

Team

LAD

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.